Calling all statisticians

[cowbell88]

Can someone that has plenty of time on their hands put together a pre- Season AP and Coaches ranking vs how we finished since 2000.

This would be from last 5 coaches and would show an interesting trend.

 

[She Mate Me]

Can someone that has plenty of time on their hands put together a pre- Season AP and Coaches ranking vs how we finished since 2000.

This would be from last 5 coaches and would show an interesting trend.

Won't be hard to find the ranked teams from the late Sherrill and Croom years.

It just hit me, are you talking Top 25 or SEC West rankings??

 

[CoastRat.sixpack]

What I would love to see is a chart of the media's SEC West preseason predictions vs. our actual finish each year.

 

[She Mate Me]

What I would love to see is a chart of the media's SEC West preseason predictions vs. our actual finish each year.

I think we might suspect the same trend.

 

[POTUS]

I don't have the preseason rankings but I do have our finish in the West (on the field, I don't care about vacated wins):

THE GOLDEN YEARS (Arguably the best time in modern history to be a State Football fan)

1997 - 4th
1998 - 1st
1999 - 2nd
2000 - 3rd

THE DARK TIMES (Last or 2nd to last in the West for 8 straight years. Liquor supplies depleted)

2001 - 6th
2002 - 6th
2003 - 6th
2004 - 6th
2005 - 5th
2006 - 6th
2007 - 5th
2008 - 6th

MULLEN ERA BEGINS

2009 - 6th
2010 - 5th (ranked No. 15 overall, every West team but Ole Miss ranked in the top 15)
2011 - 5th

CONFERENCE EXPANSION (adding A&M & Mizzou)

2012 - 4th
2013 - 5th
2014 - 2nd
2015 - 6th
2016 - 6th
2017 - 4th

MOORHEAD ERA BEGINS

2018 - 4th (there are vacated wins here, but on the field, 4th in the West)
2019 - 5th

LEACH ERA BEGINS

2020 - 7th (COVID Year, our only year since expansion to finish last in the West)
2021 - 4th
2022 - 3rd

 

[Dawgg]

Year

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Pre AP

NR

19

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

20

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

18

NR

NR

NR

NR

High AP

13

17

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

15

16

13

NR

1

20

NR

16

14

NR

16

17

16

Final AP

24

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

15

NR

NR

NR

11

NR

NR

19

NR

NR

NR

NR

20

Coach

Sherrill

Sherrill

Sherrill

Sherrill

Croom

Croom

Croom

Croom

Croom

Mullen

Mullen

Mullen

Mullen

Mullen

Mullen

Mullen

Mullen

Mullen/ Knox

Moorhead

Moorhead

Leach

Leach

Leach/ Arnett

Note that some of those "NR" could be "received votes", but I didn't differentiate.

 

[CochiseCowbell]

02-09. Ouch. I must've blocked a lot of that from my mind. I didn't think it was that long of a stretch.

 

[Dawgg]

02-09. Ouch. I must've blocked a lot of that from my mind. I didn't think it was that long of a stretch.

It should really include 2001 too. 3-8 and lost to Troy State at homecoming.

 

[cowbell88]

Won't be hard to find the ranked teams from the late Sherrill and Croom years.

It just hit me, are you talking Top 25 or SEC West rankings??

Initially was thinking about preseason AP rankings and final rankings each year. May be hard to find that preseason rankings if not in top 25 (which is most years).

SEC data much easier to find, I’m sure.

Just wanted to really see trend line for pre season predictions vs final results and to see how consistently different those numbers are for this century.

 

[Dawgg]

Say what you will about Croom, but unlike Jackie, Mullen, and Moorhead, he never finished a season ranked lower than he started.

 

[FQDawg]

Year

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Pre AP

NR

19

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

20

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

18

NR

NR

NR

NR

High AP

13

17

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

15

16

13

NR

1

20

NR

16

14

NR

16

17

16

Final AP

24

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

NR

15

NR

NR

NR

11

NR

NR

19

NR

NR

NR

NR

20

Coach

Sherrill

Sherrill

Sherrill

Sherrill

Croom

Croom

Croom

Croom

Croom

Mullen

Mullen

Mullen

Mullen

Mullen

Mullen

Mullen

Mullen

Mullen/ Knox

Moorhead

Moorhead

Leach

Leach

Leach/ Arnett

Note that some of those "NR" could be "received votes", but I didn't differentiate.

So if I'm reading this correctly, we've only been ranked in the preseason three times - 2001, 2011 and 2018 - and finished unranked each of those years.

On the flip side, we've finished ranked in the final AP poll five times - 2000, 2010, 2014, 2017 and 2022.

 

[Dawgg]

So if I'm reading this correctly, we've only been ranked in the preseason three times - 2001, 2011 and 2018 - and finished unranked each of those years.

On the flip side, we've finished ranked in the final AP poll five times - 2000, 2010, 2014, 2017 and 2022.

That is correct! Since 2000 anyway...

 

[cowbell88]

So if I'm reading this correctly, we've only been ranked in the preseason three times - 2001, 2011 and 2018 - and finished unranked each of those years.

On the flip side, we've finished ranked in the final AP poll five times - 2000, 2010, 2014, 2017 and 2022.

So, we’re more likely to have a “hold my beer and watch this shi t moment” than we are to stay in the “told you so”category.

 

[mstateglfr]

MSU has finished ranked t25 just 5 times in 23 seasons this century, and people biatch about this season.
17ing clowns.