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C1 Playoff Projection

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PowerTfootball

Freshman
Oct 26, 2018
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Here's my C1 Playoff Projection. Picked who I felt was going to win each game this weekend. I did work through the tiebreakers as best as I could. I feel this is accurate given the results are the same as I picked for Thursday/Friday

1. Adams Central (9-0, 46.667)
16. Fort Calhoun (6-3, 40.000)

9. Gothenburg (7-2, 42.556)
8. Ord (7-2, 42.556)

5. Columbus Scotus (7-2, 42.889)
12. Wayne (6-3, 40.333)

13. Cozad (5-4, 40.333)
4. Pierce (9-0, 45.000)

3. Ashland-Greenwood (9-0, 45.333)
14. Valentine (5-4, 40.111)

11. Aurora (6-3, 42.222)
6. Bishop Neumann (42.889)

7. Kearney Catholic (7-2, 42.556)
10. Ogallala (7-2, 42.556)

15. Chase County (5-4, 40.000)
2. Wahoo (9-0, 46.000)


The only thing I know for sure barring any crazy upsets is that Ord and Gothenburg would likely have a rematch regardless the outcome of Thursday's game in Gothenburg. I have Ord winning Thursday but if Gothenburg wins that would put GBurg at the 5 seed and Ord in the #12 spot. And if Ord loses it would push Valentine out of the playoffs and Boys Town would be in.

First 4 out

Boys Town (6-3, 40.000)
Mitchell (5-4, 39.778)
Lincoln Lutheran (5-4, 39.111)
Fairbury (5-4, 39.111)
 
Last edited:
J

jonh142881_anon

Freshman
Dec 7, 2003
194
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There are 18 C1 teams that can change division next thurs/friday and a total of 26 teams if you include the B, C2, and out of state teams. There are a huge number of variations that can happen. There are always games that don't go according to plan on the last week of the season. Such a crap shoot. In District 2 there are a ridiculous number of scenarios that could give any one of four teams the district title. Crazy stuff happens on week 9, should be fun to see how it works out!
 
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PowerTfootball

Freshman
Oct 26, 2018
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This is a little crazy as I did not pay attention to Arlington's district record.

If I am reading the tiebreaker correctly. Assuming Fort Calhoun beats Platteview, Boys Town beats Concordia, and Arlington beats DC West...

I believe then the district title would go to Arlington (which would finish 4-5)

None of the teams have a Div1 win, Arlington and Fort Calhoun both have 1 Div 2 win. Boys Town does not, so they (Boys Town) would fall out of the tiebreak.

Then you would have to go back and look at Head to Head. In which case Arlington has a victory over Fort Calhoun.

Wow.

If Platteview beats Fort Calhoun, the district title would go to Boys Town (Head to Head over Arlington)

Assuming DC West and Concordia don't pull major upsets.

The only way for Fort Calhoun to win the district title would be to beat Platteview and for Arlington to lose to DC West.

I'm going to edit my projection with Arlington winning the District title. FC's chances are not the greatest in my opinion after working through that. But like you said. Anything can happen.
 
H

hailvictors2

Senior
Jul 31, 2009
1,183
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PowerTfootball said:
This is a little crazy as I did not pay attention to Arlington's district record.

If I am reading the tiebreaker correctly. Assuming Fort Calhoun beats Platteview, Boys Town beats Concordia, and Arlington beats DC West...

I believe then the district title would go to Arlington (which would finish 4-5)

None of the teams have a Div1 win, Arlington and Fort Calhoun both have 1 Div 2 win. Boys Town does not, so they (Boys Town) would fall out of the tiebreak.

Then you would have to go back and look at Head to Head. In which case Arlington has a victory over Fort Calhoun.

Wow.

If Platteview beats Fort Calhoun, the district title would go to Boys Town (Head to Head over Arlington)

Assuming DC West and Concordia don't pull major upsets.

The only way for Fort Calhoun to win the district title would be to beat Platteview and for Arlington to lose to DC West.

I'm going to edit my projection with Arlington winning the District title. FC's chances are not the greatest in my opinion after working through that. But like you said. Anything can happen.
Click to expand...
I think it is important to note that there is a different set of tie-breakers for determining district place and teams tied in power points. See page 39 of 70 of PDF NSAA Football manual for power point tie breakers. See below (or page 47 of 70 of PDF NSAA manual) for district place tie breakers.

Steps for Determining District Places 1. To determine 1st place, the win-loss record within the district will be the first consideration. 2. If teams are tied, competition between the tied teams will be considered. 3. If the tie cannot be broken by Step 2, the overall winning percentage of all games played will be considered. 4. If at any step there are only two teams tied, refer to Step 2 to break the tie. 5. If the tie cannot be broken by Step 3, determine which team(s) played the greatest number of teams with a winning record. 6. If the tie remains, the point system average and point system tiebreaker will be used.

C1-District 2 as of right now
Boys Town 3-1 with game against Omaha Concordia where they are heavy favorites. Lone district loss is to Fort Calhoun
Arlington 3-1 with game against DC West where they are heavy favorites. Lone district loss is to Boys Town. Note that last year Arlington got crushed by DC West in a smiliar situation, but if memory serves they had already locked up the district title and sat a lot of guys because they were going to be the 16 no matter what.
Fort Calhoun 3-1 with game against Platteview. Lone district loss is to Arlington.

If Fort Calhoun beats Platteview...
With above information considered, tie breaker 1 is out as they would all finish 4-1 in the district and would have beaten each other. Criteria #3 would eliminate Arlington (Overall Win %) and it would take BT and FC back to #2 where FC beat BT. That would make FC the district champs.

If Platteview beats Fort Calhoun...
Boys Town wins the district because them and Arlington would be the only 1 loss teams and Boys Town owns the head to head tiebreaker.

Arlington's only shot to win the district is to have Platteview (3-2 in district then) beat Fort Calhoun (3-2 in district then) and Concordia beat Boys Town (3-2 in district). That would leave Arlington as the only 1 loss team in the district and make them champs.

If I have made an error please let me know.
 
Alum-Ni

Alum-Ni

Heisman
Aug 29, 2004
47,097
44,028
113
Per Stu Pospisil (https://www.omaha.com/sports/high-s...cle_24879955-8926-5d77-8508-2bd1b2b64643.html)

Another district that is not easy to sort is District 2 in Class C-1, which has three teams tied with 3-1 district records: Boys Town (5-3 overall), Fort Calhoun (5-3) and Arlington (3-5). If all three win, Fort Calhoun is district champ. If Fort Calhoun loses to Platteview and the other two win, Boys Town is tops. Arlington must beat Douglas County West and have Boys Town (vs. Omaha Concordia) and Fort Calhoun lose.
Click to expand...

Also the following C1 teams appears to have playoff spots secured:

Adams Central, Wahoo, Pierce, Ashland-Greenwood, Gothenburg, Columbus Scotus, Kearney Catholic, Wahoo Neumann, Ord, Aurora, Wayne, Ogallala-Chase County winner
 
P

PowerTfootball

Freshman
Oct 26, 2018
161
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After Ord loss

I have this projected

1. Adams Central
16. Boys Town

9. Ogallala
8. Kearney Catholic

5. Gothenburg
12. Wayne

13. Cozad
4. Pierce

3. Ashland Greenwood
14. Chase County

11. Ord
6. Scotus

7 Neumann
10 Aurora

15. Fort Calhoun
2. Wahoo


A bunch could change. Cozad chase co fort Calhoun and boys town would all be tied at 40.000

Platteview would mess this up a bit
 
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jonh142881_anon

Freshman
Dec 7, 2003
194
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Here's my guess... lots of tiebreakers coming tomorrow night, and I'm sure a few upsets which will change this.
SEED Team
1 Adams Central
2 Wahoo
3 Ashland Greenwood
4 Pierce
5 Gothenburg
6 Columbus Scotus
7 Bishop Neumann
8 Kearney Catholic
9 Aurora
10 Chase County
11 Ogallala
12 Ord
13 Wayne
14 Cozad
15 Boys Town
16 Fort Calhoun
 
D

Dawills12

All-Conference
Sep 22, 2002
31,285
3,579
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PowerTfootball said:
After Ord loss

I have this projected

1. Adams Central
16. Boys Town

9. Ogallala
8. Kearney Catholic

5. Gothenburg
12. Wayne

13. Cozad
4. Pierce

3. Ashland Greenwood
14. Chase County

11. Ord
6. Scotus

7 Neumann
10 Aurora

15. Fort Calhoun
2. Wahoo


A bunch could change. Cozad chase co fort Calhoun and boys town would all be tied at 40.000

Platteview would mess this up a bit
Click to expand...


The only change I have is Valentine in over Fort Calhoun. Valentine needs about 3-4 teams to win and that would bump up their divisions. Good stuff though - love this time of year trying to figure out who is in/out!
 
P

PowerTfootball

Freshman
Oct 26, 2018
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I have Valentine at 39.778

even with Mitchell and Chadron winning. Ord already lost so that's what essentially will keep them out unless some other upsets occur. Gordon Rushville has a ginormous task in trying to beat NPSP to help Valentine out.

A lot is obviously still on the table. Tonight will be very fun!

If Platteview beats Fort Calhoun, that would bring Valentine back in. The badgers will be big Trojan fans tonight!
 
D

Dawills12

All-Conference
Sep 22, 2002
31,285
3,579
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PowerTfootball said:
I have Valentine at 39.778

even with Mitchell and Chadron winning. Ord already lost so that's what essentially will keep them out unless some other upsets occur. Gordon Rushville has a ginormous task in trying to beat NPSP to help Valentine out.

A lot is obviously still on the table. Tonight will be very fun!

If Platteview beats Fort Calhoun, that would bring Valentine back in. The badgers will be big Trojan fans tonight!
Click to expand...


Just curious - what do you have for points for Fort Calhoun? I have them at 39.667.
 
P

PowerTfootball

Freshman
Oct 26, 2018
161
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I had Fort Calhoun at 40.000 because of I had Auburn also beating Falls City.

If Falls City wins that game, FC would be at 39.667, which would also pulls Valentine back in.

Interesting.

Valentine would be in with a Platteview win over FC, OR a Falls City win over Auburn.

Both seem to be 50/50 (ish) chances.
 
H

hailvictors2

Senior
Jul 31, 2009
1,183
743
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This projection is based on the following Friday night results:

Adams Central over Cozad
Arlington over DC West
A-G over Lincoln Lutheran
Auburn over Falls City
Aurora over Central City
Neumann over Wayne
Chadron over Gering
Ogallala over Chase County
Lakeview over Raymond Central
Wahoo over Scotus
Fairbury over Fillmore Central
Platteview over Ft Calhoun
Kearney Catholic over Holdrege
Lincoln Christian over Nebraska City
LVSS over West Point-Beemer
Doniphan-Trumbull over Milford
Mitchell over Sidney

1- Adams Central (9-0, 46.333)
16- Valentine (5-4, 39.777) ***Wins head to head tiebreaker over Mitchell

9- Ogallala (7-2, 42.555)
8- Kearney Catholic (7-2, 42.555) ***Kearney Catholic wins head to head tiebreaker

5- Pierce (9-0, 44.333)
12- Boys Town (6-3, 40.333) ***BT wins tiebreaker over Wayne based on more Level 2 wins

13- Wayne (6-3, 40.333) ***Loses tie breaker to BT based on wins over level 2 comp
4- Gothenburg (8-1, 44.444)

3- Ashland-Greenwood (9-0, 45.333)
14- Cozad (5-4, 40.000) ***Wins head to head tie breaker over Chase County

11- Ord (6-3, 41.000)
6- Columbus Scotus (7-2, 42.888) ***Wins Head to Head Tie Break with Bishop Neumann

7- Bishop Neumann (7-2, 42.888) ***Scotus wins tie breaker with head to head win
10- Aurora (6-3, 42.222)

15- Chase County (5-4, 40.000) ***Loses head to head tie breaker to Cozad
2- Wahoo (9-0, 45.666)


First 5 Out
17- Mitchell (5-4, 39.7777)
18- Fairbury (5-4, 39.111) ***Wins tiebreaker with Lin Luth based on level 1 teams played
19- Lincoln Lutheran (5-4, 39.111)
20- Platteview (5-4, 38.778) ***Wins head to head tie breaker with Ft Calhoun
21- Fort Calhoun (5-4, 38.778)


I'm sure I have an error somewhere. Please point out something I might have missed.
 
H

hdendzonecam

Redshirt
Sep 18, 2014
261
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Follow @hdendzonecam on twitter tonight, we will post the bracket as soon as the games come in! There are so many scenarios that wreck the C1 bracket, its not even worth trying to predict before tonight's games. Not sure I've seen so many tight tiebreakers and games that matter! 18 C1 teams entering week 9 could change division, and 8 non C1 teams can change! FUN NIGHT AHEAD!

Follow us on Twitter: @hdendzonecam
 
H

hailvictors2

Senior
Jul 31, 2009
1,183
743
113
hdendzonecam said:
Follow @hdendzonecam on twitter tonight, we will post the bracket as soon as the games come in! There are so many scenarios that wreck the C1 bracket, its not even worth trying to predict before tonight's games. Not sure I've seen so many tight tiebreakers and games that matter! 18 C1 teams entering week 9 could change division, and 8 non C1 teams can change! FUN NIGHT AHEAD!

Follow us on Twitter: @hdendzonecam
Click to expand...
Should be a fun night. Hopefully scores get reported asap
 
Alum-Ni

Alum-Ni

Heisman
Aug 29, 2004
47,097
44,028
113
All C1 scores

CLASS C1
Adams Central 44, Cozad 0
Arlington 50, Douglas County West 6
Ashland-Greenwood 41, Lincoln Lutheran 19
Auburn 15, Falls City 10
Aurora 30, Central City 29
Boys Town 37, Omaha Concordia 16
Centura (C2) 15, Broken Bow 6
Chadron 26, Gering (B) 21
Columbus Lakeview 48, Raymond Central 21
Doniphan-Trumbull (C2) 34, Milford 8
Fairbury 49, Fillmore Central 6
Gothenburg 17, Ord 14 (OT)
Kearney Catholic 55, Holdrege 18
Minden 1, Southern Valley (C2) 0 (forfeit)
Mitchell 26, Sidney 13
Nebraska City 51, Lincoln Christian 41
Ogallala 42, Chase County 14
Pierce 55, Boone Central/Newman Grove 20
Platteview 14, Fort Calhoun 13 (OT)
Valentine 40, O'Neill 7
Wahoo 49, Columbus Scotus 0
Wayne 14, Wahoo Neumann 10
West Point-Beemer 21, Logan View/Scribner-Snyder 0
 
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