Bracket Matrix #1 Predictor

[The Eye of the Hurricane]

I know you guys use bracketmatrix.com which combines all the predictions into one average, but they also rank the predictors based on how well they do.

I found this write-up by the guy who is ranked #1.

The write-up is awesome and far more informative than any bubble write-ups you'll read on ESPN or CBSSports.

He is going to update it daily going forward, so good reading reference this week.

Enjoy. (and sorry if someone has already posted it)

http://assemblycall.com/bracketology/

 

[I.I.]

Thanks for the good link.

 

[ctt8410]

Andy, Patrick Stevens, and Jeff at BPredict are my favorite bracket guys to read. His takeaway on Monmouth was similar to mine yesterday. Specifically:

"Since 2009, just one team has earned an at-large with at least three sub-200 defeats, which was USC in 2011."

That USC team is largely considered the worst at-large selection the committee has ever made. They got in thanks to a 5-5 record against the top 50 and the fact that Jio Fontan was out for 2 of those 3 losses.

 

[Bill Lowery_1]

This guy has a pretty good handle on the teams and really good analysis. The number of bids, and the teams, in each conference is about right. I can't disagree with any he has in at this point. He's right on IMO, with the Big10, SEC and A-10 teams. It boils down to us winning 2 really tough games, and then that still might not be enough unless there are some 1st round upsets in the conference tourneys.

I still don't see the love for UConn. I would hope a loss to Cincy would knock them out. Same for Pitt over Syr but they will give Syr credit for not having Boeheim for those 2st few games. That's BS. If they give them credit for that, then why not let SMU in?

 

[Tu Geo]

Andy, Patrick Stevens, and Jeff at BPredict are my favorite bracket guys to read. His takeaway on Monmouth was similar to mine yesterday. Specifically:

"Since 2009, just one team has earned an at-large with at least three sub-200 defeats, which was USC in 2011."

That USC team is largely considered the worst at-large selection the committee has ever made. They got in thanks to a 5-5 record against the top 50 and the fact that Jio Fontan was out for 2 of those 3 losses.

Don't forget the 1999 New Mexico team. RPI rating was #74. The AD at New Mexico was the chairmen of the selection committee I think. Only way a #74 gets an at large.

Air Force got an at large as #70 in 2004 that was a surprise as well.

GO TU!!!!

 

[The Eye of the Hurricane]

The Rudy Davalos factor. I remember it well.

 

[TU_BLA]

This guy has a pretty good handle on the teams and really good analysis. The number of bids, and the teams, in each conference is about right. I can't disagree with any he has in at this point. He's right on IMO, with the Big10, SEC and A-10 teams. It boils down to us winning 2 really tough games, and then that still might not be enough unless there are some 1st round upsets in the conference tourneys.

I still don't see the love for UConn. I would hope a loss to Cincy would knock them out. Same for Pitt over Syr but they will give Syr credit for not having Boeheim for those 2st few games. That's BS. If they give them credit for that, then why not let SMU in?

Exactly...what's the point of a sanction if it does not penalize the team/organization in the end. "We're punishing you but we're not going to hold it against you". Let's continue the "But it's not my fault" culture that has been instilled in this generation.

 

[TU Hurricane Warning]

Wow, this guy is good. Interesting this is the first week we are in his bracket.

 

[cmullinsTU]

Assembly Call still has Tulsa as the last of the last 4 in. Added St. Mary's to the bubble, but under Tulsa as I expected.

 

[The Eye of the Hurricane]

Early games of interest include Michigan/Northwestern and Florida/Arkansas.

Not because Michigan or Florida are necessarily 100% in right now, but both are generally in the next 4-5 out and losing would eliminate them from moving up that list.

 

[I.I.]

They know last 4 in is a safe place for them to put us. Two wins and no question. One loss before finals and easily tossed aside. I would give our chances 5-10% with a loss to Memphis, 25% chance with a loss to Houston, 80% chance with a loss in the finals and almost 100% chance with a win in the finals.

 

[Weatherdemon]

They know last 4 in is a safe place for them to put us. Two wins and no question. One loss before finals and easily tossed aside. I would give our chances 5-10% with a loss to Memphis, 25% chance with a loss to Houston, 80% chance with a loss in the finals and almost 100% chance with a win in the finals.

It is 100% chance in finals. Win and your in ;o)

 

[Bill Lowery_1]

They know last 4 in is a safe place for them to put us. Two wins and no question. One loss before finals and easily tossed aside. I would give our chances 5-10% with a loss to Memphis, 25% chance with a loss to Houston, 80% chance with a loss in the finals and almost 100% chance with a win in the finals.

I like that prediction of 100% chance if we win in the finals. I think we all agree with that one. I do think our chance is 0% if we lose to Memphis

 

[Bill Lowery_1]

NW just scored with 2 seconds left to force OT with Michigan. Arky trails Florida by 6 at halftime.

 

[Bill Lowery_1]

Michigan scored with 5 seconds left in OT to win by 2.

 

[Bill Lowery_1]

Florida defeats Arky but it'll take 1-2 more wins for them or Michigan to get back in the discussion. If we continue to win, our best chance might be for Cincy to knock UConn out and Temple get ousted in 1st or second game.

 

[Bill Lowery_1]

Vandy down 9 to Tennessee with 6 mins left in 1st half. This would be a big blow to Vandy and could knock them out of consideration. The SEC is just not very good this year.

 

[Bill Lowery_1]

Butler down 13 to Providence with 5 minutes to go. But imagine they'll still get in with a loss.

 

[Bill Lowery_1]

Tennessee with a big 2 point win over Vandy. Tennessee missed the front end of 2 1 and 1's with 6 seconds left and Vandy scores but the ball wasn't released in time.