Can you predict how the D1 district finals will look like if all plays out accordingly?
Boys hoops
- Thread starter Bumping Cutters
- Start date
I think a barometer for HD is Friday against LHNE. C2 team with athletes. Also, some of these teams that were busy playing football late into the season(ie Pierce, NC, and HD) take some time to get their BB players in sync.
It will be easier to project Monday. Teams like Axtell, Pleasanton and Ravenna are going to effect a lot of central Nebraska team points by potentially dropping from a Division 2 opponent to D3. We are going to know a lot more on Monday when the regular season is over.
There are some nine massive games that will impact points Thursday, Friday and Saturday like...
-Mead at Johnson-Brock
-Ansley-Litchfield at Pleasanton
-Axtell vs Southern Valley (Axtell is 10-9, a win puts them at 11-9 which is safe for a winning record. If they lose, then lost to Loomis, that puts them at 10-11). Axtell has played Elm Creek twice, Bertrand, Ansley, and Kenesaw.
-Cambridge at Bertrand (Cambridge is 11-11, if they lose Friday to Bertrand, that puts them back to D3.) Cambridge has played Dundy twice, Bertrand (will be twice on Friday) and NPSP.
-Howells-Dodge at LHNE: Would be a massive win for the Jaguars if they can pull it off.
-Leyton at Garden County: Leyton can't afford to slip here.
-NPSP at Paxton: If NPSP wins, just cements that number 1 seed.
-Ravenna at Ord: Ravenna is 11-11, if you are Ansley-Litchfield, Pleasanton, and Elm Creek, you need Ravenna to win.
-South Loup at SEM: South Loup has to win this game to make their wildcard chances feel good. A loss could knock them down, even though SEM is a Division 1 team, but they are D2.
Here are my picks for subs.
D1-1: Johnson-Brock
D1-2: Mead
D1-3: McCool Junction
D1-4: Bancroft-Rosalie
D1-5: EPPJ
D1-6: Ainsworth
D1-7: Ansley-Litchfield
D1-8: Kenesaw
D1-9: Bertrand
D1-10: NPSP
D1-11: Dundy County
D1-12: Leyton (would not shock me if Bridgeport beat them).
Wildcards:
Maywood-Hayes Center
Elm Creek
Howells-Dodge
South Loup
About the only guarantees are...
If Bertrand wins their sub, they will be the 16 seed unless a crazy upset happens.
If NPSP wins their sub, they will be the 1 seed.
So, do the sub state seedings use point averages AFTER sub-districts? Then, if so, do state pairings reflect sub state games?
I've heard a couple different things happening at CC during the conference championship games. From parents spitting on band members to parents taking their arguments out to the parking lot to settle the dispute. Pretty embarrassing acts from parents that are living through their child's sports lives. Just my opinion.
If you're referring to my post - this was at the Central City vs. Doniphan-Trumbull conference championship game.
I have seen MHC a few times this year. As previously mentioned, they are very athletic and if they get their transition game going, they are tough to beat. They do struggle in the half court sometimes and their outside shooting is inconsistent and have had some close games. I will be very curious to see how they handle their tough sub-district matchups. Depending on who they play in the district final, they could make it to state and possibly make some noise. Great time of the year for basketball fans.
I could very easily see a situation where either St Pats or Elm Creek do not win the Sub, but win it all in Lincoln.
That's not good at all. We've played CC in baseball numerous times, including in the state tourney. Never an issue, and people like to get mouthy at baseball games!
Agreed - we have played CC in baseball as well and never had a problem.
I dont think you maywood fans have anything to worry about, you will get to a district final game even if you lose in subs and will play an average 14 or 15 seed team
Last year I think the record was a product of their schedule, but i think they have most everybody back and have heard they picked up their best two players from the portal. Looking at their results, they seem a different animal this year.
Yes they got Med Valley's best player, which good for them and that kid. Not sure where the other transfer came from.
well that would help any school out let alone a class D team getting 40% of its starters from transfers
They had 2 kids transfer from Med Valley but only Kramer contributes the other appears to have a knee brace and wouldn't have made the rotation anyway. The other starters and contributors are all from within the consolidation and have played there since Junior High.
If May-Hay beats Elm Creek tomorrow, they will get an easy 14, 15 or 16 seeded opponent in the district final and qualify for the state tournament. But, if they lose tomorrow to Elm Creek, it could be possible that they could drop to a four seed (without doing any math). With the wrong draw (example Humphrey/Lindsay Holy Family or Ainsworth), they could be staying home.
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So looking at the points today and results from the weekend...not that much changed. South Loup needs to Leyton and others to win. They can't afford an upset. Pretty much locked in wildcards are MHC, Elm Creek and loser of HD and BR. If NPSP wins tomorrow over South Loup and even loses the sub final, they will probably still have the #1 seed.
Here are my picks for subs.
D1-1: Johnson-Brock
D1-2: Mead
D1-3: McCool Junction
D1-4: Bancroft-Rosalie
D1-5: EPPJ
D1-6: Ainsworth
D1-7: Ansley-Litchfield
D1-8: Kenesaw
D1-9: Bertrand
D1-10: NPSP
D1-11: Dundy County
D1-12: Leyton (would not shock me if Bridgeport beat them).
Wildcards:
Maywood-Hayes Center
Elm Creek
Howells-Dodge
South Loup
Here are my picks for subs.
D1-1: Johnson-Brock
D1-2: Mead
D1-3: McCool Junction
D1-4: Bancroft-Rosalie
D1-5: EPPJ
D1-6: Ainsworth
D1-7: Ansley-Litchfield
D1-8: Kenesaw
D1-9: Bertrand
D1-10: NPSP
D1-11: Dundy County
D1-12: Leyton (would not shock me if Bridgeport beat them).
Wildcards:
Maywood-Hayes Center
Elm Creek
Howells-Dodge
South Loup
Looks like everything went chalk this evening as far as the main teams.
Appears SL now also would need Ansley-Litchfield to win D1-7 as they have jumped SL in power points. Maybe with a loss for AL they would flip back?
I'm with you that I think Bridgeport beats Leyton and the WC's go to:
MH/NPSP loser
EC
HD/BR loser
Leyton
I'd still guess Leyton wins. Please note I said "guess" and that I could be argued into believing either way. Actually was in NP and went to the games tonight. Really good D1 BB. St Pats had turnover issues and that game was closer than the final. Seemed like St Pats just couldn't shake them. Not knowing either, it seemed like their bench was frustrated and I think South Loup played really well. Again more of a 8-10 point game than the 15 or whatever. Maywood is really long. Good hoops guys. Their "best by far" athleticism has been overrated on here. I think St Pats has a significant edge in quickness and they could trouble Maywoods guards. Thursday will be a really great game. I keep going back to the schedules. Maywood won't bring anything to the table that NPSP hasn't seen and I doubt if they've seen that kind of quickness and I'm sure they haven't seen a player like Erickson (sp?). Equally impressive to my mind is that 3 of their managers (football injures) all would have been top 7 guys according to the people I talked to, something like that was 3/4 of last years Class D champ 4x1 or something. They certainly looked the part. The Kramer kid from Maywood is a heck of a bb player, dominates the game from a scouting standpoint, and carries the team. It'll be fun. I'll pick Maywood, against every instinct I have. LOL
Great breakdown, thanks! I watched most of the MHC game online. Very impressed, but they also give the vibe of a team that hasn't been challenged much. If NPSP starts strong will be interested to see the reaction.
I don't know which team that is, I am just curious as to what the matchups could be!
Rough guess as of 2-22-23. Major games on Thursday that could impact seedings...
Howells-Dodge vs Bancroft-Rosalie
EPPJ vs Humphrey-LHF
Ainsworth vs Boyd County (if Boyd County wins, they will be the 16, they beat Ainsworth once already)
Loomis vs Southern Valley
Leyton vs Bridgeport
McCool Junction vs BDS
Dundy vs Hitchcock
I have my wildcards as MHC, H-D, Elm Creek and Leyton
#1 NPSP
#16 Loomis
#2 MHC (I don't think Johnson-Brock can get to number 2 even with a MHC loss)
#15 McCool Junction (tied in points with EPPJ, but they don't have any D1 wins and only one Division 2 win)
#3 Johnson-Brock
#14 EPPJ (Has 5 Division 2 wins)
#4 Howells-Dodge
#13 Ainsworth
#5 Elm Creek
#12 Kenesaw
#6 Dundy
#11 Bridgeport
#7 Leyton
#11 Mead
#8 Ansley
#9 Bancroft Rosalie
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I know one coach in the mix, and his worries about PP standings and potential results makes be realize there is still too much variance to even try to predict! He just gave me a list of about 4 "ifs" that made my head swim. When you start talking about matchups in C2 that could affect the D1 PP's I give up. I appreciate @northeastNebraska giving it a shot!
Agreed, there is so much at stake. Really the only things we for sure now are...
NPSP and MHC will be the 1 and 2
Elm Creek has a wildcard spot
But if Howells-Dodge beats Bancroft-Rosalie, could the jump Johnson-Brock? I'm not a PP expert. If Leyton does beat Bridgeport, South Loup gets a wildcard. BR is going to be sweating if they drop the game to Howells.
Very informative post here. I like hearing stuff like this from people that have stopped in for a live game. We can draw conclusions from deductive reasoning and watching a little film. There is no substitute for actually being there.
Thanks Coach.
This right here is the part of the system that very few understand, even from an existence point of view.
Most people don't understand the weight that a past opponent sitting at 10-10 carries for a team on the bubble while playing in a really tough Sub District. It is crazy that an opponent from 3 months ago could make or break a WC berth!
I remember a Sutton team about 10 years ago sitting on the Wild Card bubble (lost to Ravenna 3 times) traveling to watch a Class D District Final game to cheer for the underdog. That game from 2 Classes lower controlled their destiny! It's a mind bender for sure!
Don't sleep in Pleasanton versus AL game as a big one for standings. Appears it's the 3rd match-up and 2nd in less than a week. Looks like AL won by single digits the other two times.
Pretty sure if HD beats BR, that'll drop BR to Division 2 win.... which is what JB will get from Pawnee. So that result alone wouldn't make them jump them (other teams moving divisions may).
Am I wrong to think JB would be the 3 playing MJ as the 14, with ST pats the 1, MHC the two
Gotcha. Crazy that BR would be considered division 2.
So what happens with McCool Junction and EPPJ if they both win?
-They are tied in points right now
- McCool Junction (17-6), 42.3043
- Elgin Public/Pope John (15-8), 42.3043
-Both teams don't have a Division 1 win, McCool has played three Division 1 games, while EPPJ has played two.
-EPPJ has six Division 2 wins, while McCool only has two.