This has probably been covered, but looking at payouts, and assuming that Bama wins the SEC championship game, it's pretty clear that it will be:
Bama will be in the CFP.
UM or UF will be in the Sugar. I think it will be UM the way FLorida has finished, even though Florida smoked UM.
Citrus will get the next choice. Florida, LSU, or UGA would be potential candidates. FLorida would be it based on record, LSU would be it based on record against good competition. UGA is a potential pick because they make sense geographically and LSU has been to the Citrus a lot lately and fans are probably not excited about their year.
I assume Outback will get the next pick and Texas after that. (I know the both are technically in the grouping of six bowls, but I assume the pecking order still follows payouts unless the SEC has a reason to intervene). I would think it would make sense for them to pick whichever two the Citrus doesn't take. I'm guessing LSU in the Texas Bowl and then Citrus/Outback split UF and UGA, that's just based on geography.
After that, I think there is a group of Arkansas, MSU, A&M, and UT that will be spread between the Gator, Music City, Belk, and Liberty. You could make an argument for any oen of those teams over any other. A&M and MSU are equal overall records and conference records, A&M has the head to head. Arkansas has a better west record than A&M and MSU but worse overall record and lost the head to head to both. Tennessee has one more conference win than MSU and A&M but the same overall record against easier competition.
Assuming Gator and Music City split the next pick, I'm guessing they would pick UT and A&M, based on proximity and size of fan base.
Liberty bowl wants Arkansas because of location and them not having been there recently. MSU gets left with the Belk Bowl.
If somebody like the Texas bowl drops down for geography reasons (say picking A&M, although I think they played in that stadium earlier this year?), whichever team they passed over (LSU in that case under my scenario) would just slide down to the next bowl and I don't think would change anything for MSU.
So is any of that wrong? Is there anywhere that the SEC will step in to prevent teams from going to the same bowl in close succession? It looks to me like we will be a lock for the Belk unless the SEC pushes UT there for proximity reasons. Or unless the SEC really wants to establish that all those six bowls are easy and pushes somebody like UGA to the Belk (which I'm really guessing they cannot/willnot do, because why would the Outback and Texas bowls pay that much more in payout if they didn't basically get their choice).
All that to say, might as well get pumped up for the Belk Bowl at this point unless Music City and Gator pass on UT because they've been there recently or just because they want to bring out of state money in.
Bama will be in the CFP.
UM or UF will be in the Sugar. I think it will be UM the way FLorida has finished, even though Florida smoked UM.
Citrus will get the next choice. Florida, LSU, or UGA would be potential candidates. FLorida would be it based on record, LSU would be it based on record against good competition. UGA is a potential pick because they make sense geographically and LSU has been to the Citrus a lot lately and fans are probably not excited about their year.
I assume Outback will get the next pick and Texas after that. (I know the both are technically in the grouping of six bowls, but I assume the pecking order still follows payouts unless the SEC has a reason to intervene). I would think it would make sense for them to pick whichever two the Citrus doesn't take. I'm guessing LSU in the Texas Bowl and then Citrus/Outback split UF and UGA, that's just based on geography.
After that, I think there is a group of Arkansas, MSU, A&M, and UT that will be spread between the Gator, Music City, Belk, and Liberty. You could make an argument for any oen of those teams over any other. A&M and MSU are equal overall records and conference records, A&M has the head to head. Arkansas has a better west record than A&M and MSU but worse overall record and lost the head to head to both. Tennessee has one more conference win than MSU and A&M but the same overall record against easier competition.
Assuming Gator and Music City split the next pick, I'm guessing they would pick UT and A&M, based on proximity and size of fan base.
Liberty bowl wants Arkansas because of location and them not having been there recently. MSU gets left with the Belk Bowl.
If somebody like the Texas bowl drops down for geography reasons (say picking A&M, although I think they played in that stadium earlier this year?), whichever team they passed over (LSU in that case under my scenario) would just slide down to the next bowl and I don't think would change anything for MSU.
So is any of that wrong? Is there anywhere that the SEC will step in to prevent teams from going to the same bowl in close succession? It looks to me like we will be a lock for the Belk unless the SEC pushes UT there for proximity reasons. Or unless the SEC really wants to establish that all those six bowls are easy and pushes somebody like UGA to the Belk (which I'm really guessing they cannot/willnot do, because why would the Outback and Texas bowls pay that much more in payout if they didn't basically get their choice).
All that to say, might as well get pumped up for the Belk Bowl at this point unless Music City and Gator pass on UT because they've been there recently or just because they want to bring out of state money in.
