Bowl Projections: Week 9

[johnson86-1]

We've been to the Liberty more recently than the Gator.

First, I'm an idiot.
Second, I don't think it matters at least with respect to the Gator. They will expect us to (barely) travel to the Liberty even though we were there in 2013 compared to the Gator that we went to in 2010 and 2012. On the other hand, if they count going somewhere five years ago against teams, they will basically either just be committing to rotate the 3-8 based on who went where last or committing to sending teams to the closest bowl to their fan base unless there is a compelling reason not to.

Hopefully us going to the Liberty in 2013 makes it more likely that we go to the Texas Bowl or even Music City Bowl.

 

[patdog]

I think Tennessee is a bigger dumpster fire than you do. And it'll be even bigger by the time they play Vandy.

 

[johnson86-1]

Not counting who makes it in to the playoffs or the new years 6, only the citrus gets to take the second best SEC or best available in the pecking order. All other bowls with exception to Birmingham and Indy can select the SEC 3 through 8 eligible schools, regardless of record. That is how we will get screwed. That means Tennessee could absolutely jump us in the pecking order with a 6-6 record.

No, the 3-8 bowls work with the SEC on selections, but they still get to pick before Independence and Birmingham. So the bowls paying the big payouts aren't going to just accept a 6-6 dumpster fire with dissatisfied fans. If UK and South Carolina stumble going down the stretch and end up at 7 wins, they might get passed over for a 6 win UT. But you're not going to see bowls pass up 9 and 8 win teams for a dumpster fire 6 win team, and even if they wanted to do that, you'd probably see the SEC push back on it, as the other bowls on the same "level" aren't going to want to see their status diminished.

 

[00Dawg]

There's way too many factors outside the SEC to say that.

If TCS\OU\OkST all end up swapping wins and Miami, VT, and Clemson are hanging out in the 5-11 range, we're not getting a 3rd NY6 bid.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

My weekend work - bowl history

Yes, it's true. I have no life.

I've been wondering about some of the bowls and their recent history so I put together some data on the last eight years (Mullen tenure). The TV and ratings data is a little hard to find so if you have some of those numbers let me know and I will plug them in.

Each block represents a bowl. Included are the Citrus and the tier below it. You have the SEC team, their ranking and record, the opponent and their ranking and record, the result, the attendance and the TV info where I had it. To the far right you have averages for this time period. No ranking is not calculated, so in the cases where there are only a couple of ranked teams, that can be misleading. The green numbers are attendance figures well above the average, yellow is well below the average. And the year designation is in relation to the regular season year, not the date on which the game was played since many were in January of the following year.

Observations:
Florida bowls should love Florida, or at least good Florida teams. With the exception of last year's Outback, Florida draws higher than average in the Florida bowls, and has put up the best attendance for both the Outback and the Citrus in that time frame.

Likewise, the Music City must love UT.

Belk attendance has been very consistent outside of the 2011 game. That was the first one branded as the Belk Bowl so maybe that had something to do with the spike?

The SEC has transformed the Texas Bowl. It's averaging better than 70,000 with an SEC team. (I didn't count A&M in 11 because they were in the Big 12).


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* = CFP/ BCS	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	Average
Citrus SEC	LSU	Florida	Missouri	USC	UGA	USC	Alabama
SEC Rank*	20	19	16	9	7	9	16	13.7
SEC Wins	7	10	10	10	11	10	9	9.6
SEC Losses	4	3	3	2	2	2	3	2.7
Opponent	Louisville	Michigan	Minnesota	Wisconsin	Nebraska	Nebraska	Michigan St
Opp Rank*	13	14	25	19	16	20	9	16.6
Opp Wins	9	9	8	9	10	9	11	9.3
Opp Losses	3	3	4	3	3	3	1	2.9
SEC result	W 29-9	L 41-7	W 33-17	W 34-24	W 45-31	W 30-13	W 49-7
Attendance	46063	63113	48624	56629	59712	61351	61519	56715.9
Viewers	6.39				10			8.2
Neilsen	3.9	5.1	3.6	5.6	6.6	2.86	4.3	4.6
* = CFP/ BCS	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	Average
Outback SEC	Florida	Tennessee	Auburn	LSU	USC	UGA	Florida
SEC Rank*	17	23	19	16	10	16	NR	16.8
SEC Wins	8	8	8	9	10	10	7	8.6
SEC Losses	4	4	4	3	2	3	5	3.6
Opponent	Iowa	Northwestern	Wisconsin	Iowa	Michigan	Michigan State	Penn State
Opp Rank*	NR	13	18	NR	18	17	NR	16.5
Opp Wins	8	10	10	8	8	10	7	8.7
Opp Losses	4	2	3	4	4	3	5	3.6
SEC result	W 30-3	W 45-6	L 34-31 (OT)	W 21-14	W 33-28	L 33-30	W 37-24
Attendance	51119	53202	44023	51296	54527	49429	60574	52024.3
Viewers			6.42		7			6.7
Neilsen	3.6	1.7	3.8	3.2	4.3	5.14	7.1	4.1
		estimated
* = CFP/ BCS	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	Average
Gator SEC	Kentucky	Georgia	Tennessee	Georgia	Mississippi St	Florida	Mississippi St
SEC Rank*				22			21	21.5
SEC Wins	7	9	6	8	8	6	8	7.4
SEC Losses	5	3	6	4	4	6	4	4.6
Opponent	Ga Tech	Penn State	Iowa	Nebraska	Northwestern	Ohio State	Michigan
Opp Rank*					20			20.0
Opp Wins	8	7	7	8	9	6	7	7.4
Opp Losses	4	5	5	4	3	6	5	4.6
SEC result	L, 33-18	W, 24-17	W, 45-28	L, 24-19	L, 34-20	W, 24-17	W, 52-14
Attendance	43,102	58,212	56,310	60,712	48,612	61,312	77,497	57965.3
Viewers	2.647	5.872	4.11	4.52				4.3
Neilsen	1.6		2.6	2.6		1.85		2.2
* = CFP/ BCS	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	Average
Texas SEC	Texas A&M	LSU	Arkansas	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
SEC Rank*								#DIV/0!
SEC Wins	8	8	6					7.3
SEC Losses	4	3	6					4.3
Opponent	Kansas State	Texas Tech	Texas	Syracuse	Texas Tech	Texas A&M	Baylor
Opp Rank*				Minnesota	Minnesota	Northwestern	Illinois	#DIV/0!
Opp Wins	8	7	6					7.0
Opp Losses	4	5	6					5.0
SEC result	L, 33-28	W, 56-27	W, 31-7
Attendance	68412	71307	71115	32327	50386	68395	68211	61450.4
Viewers	3.791							3.8
Neilsen	2.2							2.2
* = CFP/ BCS	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	Average
Belk	Arkansas	Mississippi St	Georgia	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
SEC Rank*			13					13.0
SEC Wins	7	8	9					8.0
SEC Losses	5	4	3					4.0
Opponent	Virginia Tech	NC State	Louisville	Cincinnati	Cincinnati	Louisville	South Florida
Opp Rank*	22		21	North Carolina	Duke	NC State	Clemson	21.5
Opp Wins	9	7	9					8.3
Opp Losses	4	5	3					4.0
SEC result	L, 35-24	W, 51-28	W, 37-14
Attendance	46902	46423	45671	45211	48128	58427	41122	47412.0
Viewers	4.963							5.0
Neilsen	2.9							2.9
* = CFP/ BCS	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	Average
Music City	Tennessee	Texas A&M	LSU	Ole Miss	Vandy	Mississippi St	Tennessee
SEC Rank*	21		23					22.0
SEC Wins	8	8	8	7	8	6	6	7.3
SEC Losses	4	4	4	5	4	6	6	4.7
Opponent	Nebraska	Louisville	Notre Dame	Georgia Tech	NC State	Wake Forest	NC State
Opp Rank*								#DIV/0!
Opp Wins	9	7	7	7	7	6	7	7.1
Opp Losses	3	5	5	5	5	6	5	4.9
SEC result	W, 38-24	L. 27-21	L, 31-28	W, 25-17	W, 38-24	W, 23-17	L, 30-27 (OT)
Attendance	68496	50478	60419	52125	55801	55208	69143	58810.0
Viewers								#DIV/0!
Neilsen								#DIV/0!
* = CFP/ BCS	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	Average
Liberty	Georgia	Arkansas	Texas A&M	Mississippi St	NA	Vanderbilt	Georgia
SEC Rank*								#DIV/0!
SEC Wins	7	7	7	6		6	6	6.5
SEC Losses	5	5	5	6		6	6	5.5
Opponent	TCU	Kansas State	West Virginia	Rice		Cincinnati	Central Florida
Opp Rank*					Tulsa		25	25.0
Opp Wins	6	6	7	10	Iowa State	9	10	8.0
Opp Losses	6	6	5	3		3	3	4.3
SEC result	W, 31-23	W, 45-23	W, 45-37	W, 44-7		L, 31-24	L, 10-6
Attendance	51087	61136	51282	57846	53687	57103	51231	54767.4
Viewers								#DIV/0!
Neilsen								#DIV/0!

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[BulldogBlitz]

Yes, it's true. I have no life.

I might have to agree on this magnitude of data crunching.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

At least I own it.

 

[HumpDawgy]

No, the 3-8 bowls work with the SEC on selections, but they still get to pick before Independence and Birmingham. So the bowls paying the big payouts aren't going to just accept a 6-6 dumpster fire with dissatisfied fans. If UK and South Carolina stumble going down the stretch and end up at 7 wins, they might get passed over for a 6 win UT. But you're not going to see bowls pass up 9 and 8 win teams for a dumpster fire 6 win team, and even if they wanted to do that, you'd probably see the SEC push back on it, as the other bowls on the same "level" aren't going to want to see their status diminished.

Wanna bet? A 6-6 Bammer team will get picked before a 7 or 8 win State team every time, no matter what the SEC office (which is located where?) says to the bowl selection committees. SEC wants good bowl options (and money) for their members, so they will not fight a bowl committee and possibly lose the bowl to an ACC or Big 10 or 12 team. With the payouts ranging from 6 mil to 3 mil (I know the teams only get a percentage of it, but it is still a difference in money), the SEC office will make sure their power programs get the bigger payouts and tell us we should be happy to go to a bowl.

 

[BulldogBlitz]

Auburn to citrus.
Lsu to gator.
Msu to outback.

Just with that table it seems it could play that way.

 

[00Dawg]

I'd argue exactly the opposite.

Historically, we only have the Outback Bowl making waves against what the SEC Office has wanted.
The others fall in line out of fear of losing their SEC tie-in along with the dedicated fan bases and regional marketing that come with it.
Don't believe me, look at the other second tier bowls:

Texas: has SEC vs Big 12. No other P5 conference fan bases in close proximity.
Belk: has SEC vs ACC. Only other remotely close fanbase is the Big 12 with WVU, and that's not enough to commit to. Notably, they used to match up ACC vs the Big East.
Liberty: has SEC vs Big 12. I suppose they could try for the ACC.
Gator Bowl/Music City: They've got the best of all worlds with SEC vs Big 10/ACC. They don't want the Big 12.

Meanwhile, the Birmingham Bowl gets to hang around thanks to the conference office location. The Independence Bowl....well, I'm not sure why we still have them. I would've replaced them with another New Orleans or Florida Bowl by now.

 

[johnson86-1]

Wanna bet? A 6-6 Bammer team will get picked before a 7 or 8 win State team every time, no matter what the SEC office (which is located where?) says to the bowl selection committees. SEC wants good bowl options (and money) for their members, so they will not fight a bowl committee and possibly lose the bowl to an ACC or Big 10 or 12 team. With the payouts ranging from 6 mil to 3 mil (I know the teams only get a percentage of it, but it is still a difference in money), the SEC office will make sure their power programs get the bigger payouts and tell us we should be happy to go to a bowl.

I absolutely want to bet that a 6-6 Bama team doesn't get picked before a 7 or 8 win State team this year. Just name the amount and I'm in. I'll even give you 2-1 odds since I'm a good guy.

 

[Crazy Cotton]

Wait till Southern Miss beats them. I live in Knoxville, it is ugly and getting uglier around here. Feels like the admin is trying to hold out to the end of the season to can Butch, but I don't think they are going to make it.

 

[kired]

Nice... I've thought about doing similar research just so I could try to predict bowls each year but haven't had time. But I have done some work on it.

My guesses --- Kentucky to Music City, South Carolina to Belk (maybe Taxslayer) unless they manage a huge upset against Georgia or Clemson. If one of the east teams squeeze in (Tenn, Vandy, Mizzou) I would think they are favored for Liberty or maybe swap with Kentucky for Music City.

That leaves Citrus, Texas, Outback, Taxslayer to be split up between us, Auburn, LSU, and Tx A&M.

Texas had LSU 2015 and A&M 2016 - so you'd think they'll get us or Auburn, unless they really want LSU again which is possible.

I'm not sure where you put A&M... maybe Liberty. They have not played in Florida recently, but were in Liberty 2014 & Music 2015. Not sure you send them back to Tennessee again.

I think we get Texas or Outback if we don't make Citrus.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Auburn to citrus.
Lsu to gator.
Msu to outback.

Just with that table it seems it could play that way.

I would prefer we make one of the Florida bowls even though I cannot go, but part of me would love to see us in the Texas Bowl because I could make that one and we have a bunch of Dawgs here in Texas. It would be well attended.

Peach is a good bowl, do we not have tie-ins for this? I'm guessing it is not in play.

The Texas Bowl wants Texas to get bowl eligible so they can have a A&M vs Texas matchup.

 

[00Dawg]

All else being equal....

TAMU/LSU loser-Gator
Auburn-Texas
TAMU/LSU winner-Outback
State-Citrus

LSU was last in the Outback for the 2013 season, and the other 3 teams have never been to the locations I listed them for.
Logically I'd say unless Auburn upsets UGA or Bama, this is where we're headed. However, I realize logic doesn't always apply to bowl selections.

 

[QuaoarsKing]

If Auburn's going to the Texas Bowl, we'll be in the Peach or another NY6 bowl at 9-3.