Bowl Projections: Week 9

[00Dawg]

Brett McMurphy (ESPN): Outback Bowl vs Michigan
Mark Schlabach (ESPN): Outback Bowl vs Penn State
Brad Crawford (Saturday Down South): Belk Bowl vs NC State
Jerry Palm (CBS): Music City Bowl vs Penn State
Jason Kirk (SBNation): Liberty Bowl vs Kansas State
College Sports Madness: Citrus Bowl vs Minnesota (yeah, back to not paying attention)
Sporting News: Gator Bowl vs UNC
Bleacher Report: Texas Bowl vs Texas Tech
CollegeFootballNews.com: Liberty Bowl vs Texas Tech
Phil Steele: Gator Bowl vs Clemson
ESPN SEC Blog: Gator Bowl
USA Today: Texas Bowl vs WVU
Athlon Sports: Texas Bowl vs Texas Tech
Orlando Sentinel: Texas Bowl vs Texas Tech

 

[BulldogBlitz]

No more trips to Florida, I'm still road rashed from last year's drive.

 

[57stratdawg]

Outback Bowl or Music City I my hope.

 

[MarkDallas]

Some interesting matchups in that list.

 

[ronpolk]

Outback Bowl or Music City I my hope.

Wouldn't mind either of these but I'll add the Belk bowl to those 2 because I like Charlotte.

 

[archdog]

I want to play Penn State.

 

[KeyserSoze1999]

Dude Blooming 17ing Onion. Winter in Tampa > Charlotte, Nashville, or Memphis.

 

[RocketDawg]

Wouldn't mind either of these but I'll add the Belk bowl to those 2 because I like Charlotte.

I havne't been to Charlotte in several years, but it's fairly easy to get to from here and not all that far. So I might go to that one. I'd go to Nashville, but not the Liberty Bowl regardless ... don't like that place. The central and south Florida bowls are just too far away, but the weather will be better than the others.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

Not much changed in the common sense bowl predictions. You know, the ones where you consider where all the teams in the conference might eventually land.


THE DEAD
It would be a miracle for either Vandy and SC to make it to six wins.

THE ALMOST DEAD
No change for Missouri. They need to go 2-2 with us, Tennessee, BYU and Arkansas left. Highly unlikely.

Arkansas beat UT Martin to get to 4-4. They need to split the last four, which is road games at Ole Miss and LSU and home games against us and Missouri. You get the feeling that their fate will be determined by what they do against us.

Auburn has pissed away two chanced to get bowl eligible against Arkansas and Ole Miss, but what do you know….now Georgia looks winnable. TAMU and Bama look unlikely and Idaho is a must have. It will all come down to UGA for Auburn.

THE ELITE
Sticking with this for one more week. One of LSU, Bama, and Florida makes the CFP; let's say Bama wins out, Ole Miss loses one, and Bama is in the CFP.

New Year’s 6 Bowls: LSU and Florida

THE REST OF US
Citrus: UM is probably the leader here right now but is positioned to move up if things break right for them. They could also fall dramatically with losses to LSU and State, not to mention Arkansas.

Outback, Gator, Texas, Music City, Belk and Liberty: UGA, MSU, UT, UK, and TAMU seem likely to be bowl eligible. If that’s how it turns out, that's five teams for six games.

If money is any consideration, we would seem to be in line for one of the top four at worst. Take your pick. At this point I would think not the Gator since we’ve been twice recently. We all know the Outback hates us, so not them. That leaves Texas and Nashville. I think we take Texas for the money, and either UK or UGA gets a million dollar bump by going to Nashville instead of Charlotte.

Ordered by payout ($ in millions)
Outback ($3.5) - Tennessee
Texas ($3) - MSU
Gator ($2.75) - TAMU
MCB ($2.75) - UK
Belk ($1.7) - UGA
Liberty ($1.4375) - Missouri/Auburn/Arkansas if one of them get eligible.

B-ham has next pick of teams left ($1.1) - Missouri/Auburn/Arkansas if two of them are eligible.

Indy has last pick of teams left ($1.2) - Missouri/Auburn/Arkansas if all three of them are eligible.

 

[BulldogBlitz]

Texas bowl is 2nd in payout. Wow. Take it. I can justify a 2.5 hour drive better than I did the 18 hour one.

 

[Bulldogg31]

How is bowl money handled by the SEC? Doesn't it all go into a bucket together?

 

[aTotal360]

Yes, unless something has recently changed.

 

[Bulldogg31]

Pretty sure all revenues are shared in the SEC, just like the NFL.

I was talking with an administrator at MSU recently and he said it's pretty cool when the SEC calls and says, "hey, we've got an extra $4 million for you we weren't expecting...where would you like us to send it?"

 

[rem101]

Wouldn't mind either of these but I'll add the Belk bowl to those 2 because I like Charlotte.

Well, Belk bowl was predicted by Saturday Down South genius Brad Crawford, so you can rule that one out.

 

[00Dawg]

I guess my biggest question at this point revolves around the Outback. If we finish 9-3, with a marquee QB, do they really take an 8-4 UT over us? I know McVay is nuts, but he's seemingly always been about money and we'd bring 10K+ folks for Dak's last game. I know UT has a bigger fan base, but if there was ever a year...

 

[patdog]

The bowls don't pick who plays in their bowl, the SEC office tells them who will play in their bowl. And geography is going to be a big part of the decision. Makes more sense to send MSU to Houston and Tennessee to Tampa than the other way around. Difference in payout is only $500K, and with all bowls being pooled and split among the SEC teams, the bottom line difference will be next to nothing.

 

[aTotal360]

Does the SEC office know about our Outback boycott? **

 

[hullabaloodog]

Really nice breakdown, D@A. Let's say OM loses to LSU and State and we lose to Bama. I'm thinking TAMU will lose to LSU but win the rest of theirs.

Citrus: TAMU
Outback: MSU
Texas: Ole Miss
Gator: Tenn

 

[00Dawg]

Tennessee was in the Gator last year, so that one would have to change.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

Here was last year's for the big bowls.

http://businessofcollegesports.com/2014/12/08/college-football-playoff-conference-payouts/

SEC
$50 million base to the conference from the CFP
$6 million to the conference for Alabama (Sugar Bowl – CFP semifinal)
$4 million to the conference for Ole Miss (Peach Bowl)
$27.5 million to the conference for Mississippi State (Orange Bowl) ----> Yes, they have a huge payout.
Total: $87.5 million to the conference

Conference distribution model: For bowl games with receipts of $4,000,000 – $5,999,999, the participating team retains $1.475 million (Ole Miss), plus a travel allowance determined by SEC. For bowl games with receipts of $6 million or more, the participating team receives $2 million (Alabama and Mississippi State), plus a travel allowance determined by the SEC. If an SEC team makes it to the championship game, it receives another $2.1 million, plus travel allowance. The remainder of the revenue from these bowls is divided 15 ways – one share for each of the 14 SEC teams and one share for the conference office. There’s also a distribution method for bowls with lower payouts, but I’m not covering that here.

**********************

For the bowls under that level, do we do it the way we used to? I think the old way was that was the payout was divided by 16, then the SEC got 1 share, the participating school got 2 shares, then the other 13 schools each got a share. That may not be right. Someone probably has better info.

 

[00Dawg]

Yeah, the window dressing says teams are "assigned", but if you start looking at last year's comments from Slive, you'll see that the bowls still have a say. McVay has thrown a monkey wrench in the selection process many times in the past, and is known for being ornery. At least twice his decisions have directly impacted our slot, and I know of another year where he held up everyone else's selections for days while deliberating on who he wanted.
Geography does play a part, but the perception is still justifiably that the Outback Bowl is bigger than the Texas Bowl. It's not hard to come up with a scenario where we're 10-2 but are the best available Pool of 6 team....at some point wins have to trump politics.
That being said, my head agrees with you; we're probably Houston-bound if we're in the Pool of 6 with 8 or more wins.

 

[hullabaloodog]

Good catch, 00. Bama - Playoff
LSU/UF NY6

Tier 2
Citrus Bowl ($4.5M) - Texas A&M (9-3)

Tier 3
Outback ($3.5M) - Mississippi State (9-3)
Texas - ($3M) - Ole Miss (8-4)
TaxSlayer ($2.75M) - Georgia (7-5)
Music City ($2.75M) - Tennessee (8-4)
Belk ($ 1.7M) - Kentucky (6-6)
Liberty ($1.5M) - Arkansas (6-6)

 

[DawgatAuburn]

Really nice breakdown, D@A. Let's say OM loses to LSU and State and we lose to Bama. I'm thinking TAMU will lose to LSU but win the rest of theirs.

Citrus: TAMU
Outback: MSU
Texas: Ole Miss
Gator: Tenn

So 9-3 TAMU, 9-3 State, and 8-4 Ole Miss with two losses in a row. I'm guessing Tennessee will also be 8-4 with that murderer's row they have upcoming (South Carolina, North Texas, Mizzou, Vandy). That's tough. I would guess
Citrus: TAMU
Outback: UT
Texas: State
Gator: Ole Miss

 

[GhostOfJackie]

The bowls don't pick who plays in their bowl, the SEC office tells them who will play in their bowl. And geography is going to be a big part of the decision. Makes more sense to send MSU to Houston and Tennessee to Tampa than the other way around. Difference in payout is only $500K, and with all bowls being pooled and split among the SEC teams, the bottom line difference will be next to nothing.

I don't get why people don't get this. Sure their might be a little rubbing from the bowls, but the SEC has the final decision according to the new contracts signed with the "pool of 6". According to who is in the pool of 6 teams, geography and past appearances will matter most.

Pretend this happened. A 9-3 MSU team has not been to the Liberty Bowl in 15 years. a 7-5 Florida team had not been to the Outback Bowl in 15 years. Both are in the pool of 6 teams/bowls. Florida would go to go to the Outback Bowl in that situation and we would go to Liberty, even with a better record.

It helps us that we have not been to the Outback, Texas, or Belk bowls. One of those 3 will be where we end up this year at 9-3. Maybe Citrus if some good things happen. If we go 10-2, I think we are in a New Years 6.

 

[00Dawg]

What the official announcements actually said was "In consultation with SEC member institutions, as well as these six bowls, the conference will make the assignments for the bowlgames in this newly created pool system."
To me that's nice speak for "we still talk it over with everyone". My hope is that the SEC actually does have the absolute final say, and the bowls can like it or lump it. That would keep the confusing selections of previous years to a minimum.
Last year lends some credence to the SEC Office Above All theory: a 7-5 TAMU went to the Liberty and an 8-4 LSU went to Nashville while a 6-6 UT got the Gator (9-3 UGA had been the year before) and a 6-6 Arkansas got the Texas Bowl.
When you really dig into things, it looks like the picks were matchup driven: Texas was in the Texas Bowl eliminating TAMU from consideration and making Arkansas attractive, Notre Dame in Nashville, a 7-5 Iowa was in Jacksonville, and a 9-3 Louisville team was in Charlotte. The outlier is, as usual, the Outback Bowl, where an 8-4 Auburn took on a 10-3 Wisconsin.
Geography obviously plays some role, but it always has: bowls want teams within reasonable driving distance if they can get them.