Well, there’s a lot of football left to play of course, but it seems unlikely that we would drop below the Liberty at this point, if you buy into the Liberty being the bottom bowl of that group of six based on their payout. If we win out…..maybe the Sugar Bowl? We would probably need LSU in the playoffs and Florida to stumble once or twice for that to happen. More likely in my opinion for us at 10-2 would be the Citrus Bowl. First things first though…..beat Missouri.
THE DEAD
Vandy and SC have almost no chance. I can't get either of them above 5 wins in their best case scenarios.
THE ALMOST DEAD
Missouri is practically dead in the water. Losing to Vandy was a killer. Now they need to go 2-2 with us, Tennessee, BYU and Arkansas left. When you can’t score, it’s really really really hard to win. I learned that from Croom.
Arkansas has UT Martin and Missouri still left, so that should get them to 5 wins. They would need one more of road games at Ole Miss and LSU and the home game against us, which you KNOW they have circled as the one they need to win.
Auburn is in worse shape, even though they have a better record now. They have Idaho left for win #5, but need one more win from home games with Ole Miss, UGA and Bama and a trip to TAMU. Nothing would surprise me at this point with Auburn. I think they somehow get one and finish 6-6.
THE ELITE
Playoffs - at most, one of LSU, Bama, and Florida; let's say Bama wins out and is in the CFP.
New Year’s 6 Bowls: LSU and Florida
THE REST OF US
Citrus: UM is probably the leader here right now.
Outback, Gator, Texas, Music City, Belk and Liberty: UGA, MSU, UT, UK, and TAMU seem likely to be bowl eligible. Before you ask, Kentucky has 4 wins with Vandy and Charlotte left, plus Tennessee, Georgia and Louisville. If that’s how it turns out, that's five teams for six games.
Here’s a guess, with the bowls ordered by payout ($ in millions)
Outback ($3.5) - Tennessee
Texas ($3) - MSU
Gator ($2.75) - TAMU
MCB ($2.75) - UK
Belk ($1.7) - UGA
Liberty ($1.4375) - Missouri/Auburn/Arkansas if one of them get eligible.
B-ham has next pick of teams left ($1.1) - Missouri/Auburn/Arkansas if two of them are eligible.
Indy has last pick of teams left ($1.2) - Missouri/Auburn/Arkansas if all three of them are eligible.
An alternate scenario will be if UGA beats Florida, Kentucky and Auburn to win the East. I don't see UGA in the NY6, so they probably get the Citrus at 10-2. With the same 10-2 record I don’t think Florida gets in the big time bowls either in that situation, and certainly not if they also lose to Florida State. If Georgia wins out and goes to Atlanta, I expect Florida and Ole Miss drop down to the group with us.
Playoffs/NY6: LSU and Alabama
Citrus ($4.25) - Georgia
Outback ($3.5) – Florida
Texas ($3) - Ole Miss
Gator ($2.75) - Tennessee
MCB ($2.75) – TAMU
Belk ($1.7) - MSU
Liberty ($1.4375) – UK
B-ham ($1.1) - Missouri/Auburn/Arkansas if one of them are eligible.
Indy ($1.2) - Missouri/Auburn/Arkansas if two of them are eligible.
? ? ? - Missouri/Auburn/Arkansas if all three of them are eligible.
All speculation at this point, but it’s fun to talk about.
