Bowl Projections - Week 10

[00Dawg]

Trend from the previous week is marked as ▲,▼, or -, if available. Due to SEC bowl tiers, some trends are subjective.

247: Outback vs Iowa ▲
CBS: Outback vs Michigan State ▲
ESPN Sherman: Citrus vs Penn State▲
ESPN Bonagura: Gator vs Michigan State -
SBNation: Outback vs Michigan State ▲
CFN: Outback vs Penn State ▲
SDS: Gator vs Wisconsin -
CollegeSportsMadness.com: Outback vs Penn State -
Orlando Sentinel:Texas vs Texas Tech -
SI: Outback vs Michigan State ▲
Sporting News: Outback vs Iowa ▲
Bleacher Report: Outback vs Penn State ▼
Athlon Sports: Texas vs Texas Tech -
Brett McMurphy: Texas vs Texas Tech
USA Today: Music City vs Miami -


Week 8 plurality: Outback

For reference:
Preseason
247: Sugar vs Oklahoma
CBS: Liberty vs Kansas State
ESPN Sherman: Belk vs FSU
ESPN Bonagura: Outback vs Michigan
SBNation: Citrus vs Michigan
CFN: Liberty vs Kansas State
SDS: Music City vs Pitt
Athlon: Citrus vs Michigan State
Phil Steele: Outback vs Michigan State
CollegeSportsMadness.com: Citrus Bowl vs Michigan State
Bleacher Report: Citrus Bowl vs Michigan
Sporting News: Outback vs Michigan State
USA Today: Outback vs Northwestern
Preseason Consensus - Outback or Citrus

 

[DAWGS1.sixpack]

I would love to see us in the Outback vs Mich St or Penn St !

 

[TheStateUofMS]

Whipping Penn St would be awesome.

Michigan is going to the CFP or NY6. I woudln't want any part of Michigan. Their D is giving up like 220pyg I think. Just salty.

 

[kired]

So is the prevailing thought that the SEC will get 4 teams in the NY6 bowls? Obviously Alabama, Georgia --- but also Kentucky and LSU, assuming they both win out? Puts Florida in the Citrus, and I can see us with Moorhead being a desirable team for Outback if we can finish 8-4.

 

[00Dawg]

Yes.

At that moment, that's the thought. There are some scenarios that can derail that. The Pac-12 or Big 12 getting into the playoffs would be one of those. Another G5 school like Utah State or Fresno jumping ahead of UK or LSU would as well.

 

[00Dawg]

Speaking of NY6....

615's NY6 thread inspired me to do a cheering guide last week, and I found it a handy personal reference.

Last week's:
Clemson over Louisville ✔
LSU over Bama (even hanging close will do) x
Nebraska over Ohio State x
Auburn over Texas A&M ✔
UK over UGA (you can easily make an argument the other way) x
WVU over Texas (you can make an argument the other way, but WVU has a tougher road after this game) ✔
Purdue over Iowa ✔
Penn State over Michigan (you can make an argument the other way, but Michigan winning out all but ensures the Big 10 of a CFP spot and another NY6 berth) x
Florida over Missouri x
Arizona State over Utah ✔
Texas Tech over Oklahoma x
California over Washington State (this isn't a big help, as the Pac 12 gets at least 1 slot) x

This week's:
Clemson over Boston College
Rutgers over Michigan
Georgia over Auburn
Oklahoma State over Oklahoma
TCU over WVU
Michigan State over Ohio State (kind of a moot point if Michigan keeps winning)
Colorado over Washington State
Tennessee over Kentucky (you can make an argument the other way, but I don't see the committee letting 5 SEC teams in)
Louisville over Syracuse
San Jose St over Utah State
Texas Tech over Texas
Boise State over Fresno State

 

[57stratdawg]

Good stuff 00

 

[StillTbonewannabe]

615's NY6 thread inspired me to do a cheering guide last week, and I found it a handy personal reference.

Last week's:
Clemson over Louisville ✔
LSU over Bama (even hanging close will do) x
Nebraska over Ohio State x
Auburn over Texas A&M ✔
UK over UGA (you can easily make an argument the other way) x
WVU over Texas (you can make an argument the other way, but WVU has a tougher road after this game) ✔
Purdue over Iowa ✔
Penn State over Michigan (you can make an argument the other way, but Michigan winning out all but ensures the Big 10 of a CFP spot and another NY6 berth) x
Florida over Missouri x
Arizona State over Utah ✔
Texas Tech over Oklahoma x
California over Washington State (this isn't a big help, as the Pac 12 gets at least 1 slot) x

This week's:
Clemson over Boston College
Rutgers over Michigan
Georgia over Auburn
Oklahoma State over Oklahoma
TCU over WVU
Michigan State over Ohio State (kind of a moot point if Michigan keeps winning)
Colorado over Washington State
Tennessee over Kentucky (you can make an argument the other way, but I don't see the committee letting 5 SEC teams in)
Louisville over Syracuse
San Jose St over Utah State
Texas Tech over Texas
Boise State over Fresno State

So UK would probably finish 9-3 with a loss to UT. UT has to win out to get to 7 wins with UK, Mizzou, and Vandy. If UT gets to 7 then they could jump us in bowl slot possibly but you would think Music City would love to get UT.

What it looks like to me without any crazy upsets.

Bama - Playoff
UGA - NY6
UK - NY6
LSU - NY6
UF - Citrus
MSU - Outback
A&M - Texas
AU - Gator
SC - Belk
UT - Music City
Mizzou - Liberty
Vandy - Birmingham or Independence

I think as long as we play Bama "close" and finish out beating Ark and UM then we finish top 20-25. We will be ranked above A&M and AU with Joe having a shot against a Big Ten team, possibly Penn St. I think that will be one of the better story lines for Bowl Season.

 

[VegasDawg13]

615's NY6 thread inspired me to do a cheering guide last week, and I found it a handy personal reference.

What am I missing here? We're going to be in "Tier #1" almost no matter what at this point. Why does it matter what other teams do?

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

So UK would probably finish 9-3 with a loss to UT. UT has to win out to get to 7 wins with UK, Mizzou, and Vandy. If UT gets to 7 then they could jump us in bowl slot possibly but you would think Music City would love to get UT.

What it looks like to me without any crazy upsets.

Bama - Playoff
UGA - NY6
UK - NY6
LSU - NY6
UF - Citrus
MSU - Outback
A&M - Texas
AU - Gator
SC - Belk
UT - Music City
Mizzou - Liberty
Vandy - Birmingham or Independence

I think as long as we play Bama "close" and finish out beating Ark and UM then we finish top 20-25. We will be ranked above A&M and AU with Joe having a shot against a Big Ten team, possibly Penn St. I think that will be one of the better story lines for Bowl Season.

Outback seems to prefer SEC-E teams to me but you never know.

 

[00Dawg]

Oh, that part is definitely a miracle type play.

I'm just listing the moving pieces we need for the miracle to have a chance.
We're 95% locked into the tiered bowls, with 4% of a chance at the Citrus.

The cheering guide for an Outback (or Citrus) berth looks slightly different...for starters it has Kentucky winning and adds Florida losing.

 

[Cap'n Geech]

We probably need at least 2 of LSU, Kentucky, and Florida to win out for us to make the Outback Bowl.

 

[StillTbonewannabe]

Outback seems to prefer SEC-E teams to me but you never know.

They have taken primarily East teams but also seem to get a ranked team. There isn't an East team that would fit that criteria if UGA and UK both make NY6 bowls and UF goes to the Citrus. The 3rd East team will probably be a 7-5 SC team that was in the Outback last year and will be coming off of a Clemson loss by 60 points.

If somehow LSU or UK don't make a NY6 Bowl then you could see that push UF into the Outback with UK or LSU going to the Citrus. The only thing would be if the Outback prefers an AU team who is not going to be ranked with a probable loss to UGA and Bama still left on their schedule. A&M will also have a loss to LSU that will guarantee they aren't ranked.

 

[StillTbonewannabe]

We probably need at least 2 of LSU, Kentucky, and Florida to win out for us to make the Outback Bowl.

LSU has Ark, Rice, A&M - should go 3-0. LSU at 10-2.
UK has UT, MTSU, Lou - should go 3-0 unless UT upsets them. UK at 10-2
UF has SC, Idaho, FSU - should go 3-0 unless SC upsets them. UF at 9-3
SC has UF, Chatt, Clemson, Akron - should be 2-2 unless they upset UF. This puts them at 7-5.
UT loses to UK then the best they finish is 6-6.
Mizzou finishes 7-5 if UT beats them. 8-4 if they win out but puts UT at home.
Vandy has to win out to go 7-5 which would put UT at home. It also would give Mizzou another loss.

Our best case scenario is if UK beats UT.
UT beats Mizzou and Vandy.
Vandy beats Ole Miss and Mizzou.
Mizzou beats Ark to get to 6-6.

This would put us ahead of all the East teams but UGA, UK, and UF unless SC beats UF which makes both of them 8-4. We should finish 3rd in the West behind Bama and LSU.

 

[kired]

I know people will say the "pool of 6" bowls are equal, but I don't care --- Outback pretty much gets whoever they want after Citrus. They have the highest payout and are going to get one of the best teams available.

At this point, if 4 teams make NY6 bowls and Citrus takes Florida - us and Missouri are the most likely teams to reach 8 wins and be considered the best available. A&M would have to beat LSU. SC would have to beat Florida or Clemson (they just added a game vs. Akron to make up for a hurricane cancellation). Auburn has to beat Georgia or Bama. Missouri has Vandy, Tenn, and Arkansas left so could very easily finish with 3 more wins.

 

[johnson86-1]

I know people will say the "pool of 6" bowls are equal, but I don't care --- Outback pretty much gets whoever they want after Citrus. They have the highest payout and are going to get one of the best teams available.

At this point, if 4 teams make NY6 bowls and Citrus takes Florida - us and Missouri are the most likely teams to reach 8 wins and be considered the best available. A&M would have to beat LSU. SC would have to beat Florida or Clemson (they just added a game vs. Akron to make up for a hurricane cancellation). Auburn has to beat Georgia or Bama. Missouri has Vandy, Tenn, and Arkansas left so could very easily finish with 3 more wins.

Pretty sure the Pool of 6 Bowls officially make the same payouts now. I think the Liberty had to basically double its payout to match up with the Outback.

 

[kired]

This shows it ranges from a low of about $3 million for Gator up to $6 million for Texas and Outback... not sure it these are accurate or not.

http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/bowl-schedule/2018/

 

[Cap'n Geech]

I think LSU, Kentucky, and Florida are all coin flips at best to win out.