Bowl Projections: Week 10

[00Dawg]

SBNation: Texas Bowl vs Texas (updated from Kansas State on 11/7)*
Sports Illustrated: Outback Bowl vs Michigan*
Saturday Down South: Citrus Bowl vs Ohio State
CBS: Gator Bowl vs Louisville*
ESPN (David Hale): Outback Bowl vs Michigan State
ESPN (Kyle Bonagura): Outback Bowl vs Michigan State*
DieHards.com: Music City Bowl vs Iowa^
CollegeSportsMadness.com: Outback Bowl vs Michigan State
CollegeFootballNews.com: Gator Bowl vs Northwestern
247 Sports: Belk Bowl vs Virginia Tech*
Sporting News: Liberty Bowl vs Texas^
Bleacher Report: Music City Bowl vs Louisville~
USA Today: Music City Bowl vs FSU*
GridironNow.Com: Citrus Bowl vs VT*
Brett McMurphy: Citrus Bowl vs Northwestern
Orlando Sentinel (Brant Parsons): Texas Bowl vs Texas^
Yahoo Sports: Belk Bowl vs NC State


*Denotes no change in bowl from previous week
^Denotes no change in bowl or opponent from previous week
~Denotes no change in opponent from previous week

Week 10 Plurality Prediction: Outback Bowl
Week 9 Plurality Prediction: Texas/Music City/Outback/Belk
Week 8 Plurality Prediction: Texas Bowl
Week 7 Plurality Prediction: Texas Bowl/Liberty Bowl
Week 6 Plurality Prediction: Texas Bowl
Week 5 Plurality Prediction: Gator Bowl
Week 4 Plurality Prediction: Gator Bowl
Week 3 Plurality Prediction: Citrus Bowl
Week 2 Plurality Prediction: Liberty Bowl
Week 1 Plurality Prediction: Music City Bowl
Week 0 Plurality Prediction: Texas Bowl

 

[Uncle Ruckus]

That’s very lazy predicting. We won’t go to Texas. Outback or Citrus. LSU will lose to aTm and the barn will have 4 losses

 

[patdog]

Outback and Texas are equal. More likely we'd go to Texas than to Tampa. After the Citrus, it's a total crapshoot. My prediction is the Citrus.

 

[00Dawg]

There's some lazy predicting on some of these sites...

but most predictions related to us are defensible. I'd say the Belk Bowl prediction for us is the closest to lazy. We're not headed back there so soon.
More lazy are the sites predicting LSU to the Citrus since they were there last year, and the same for ones predicting Texas A&M to the Texas Bowl (with the exception of a matchup versus the Longhorns).

 

[MSUDawgFan86]

That’s very lazy predicting. We won’t go to Texas. Outback or Citrus. LSU will lose to aTm and the barn will have 4 losses

What? What makes you think LSU will lose to Texas A&M?

 

[Hump4Hoops]

They won't, and it pisses me off that we had to play the only good east team

so LSU's going to go 6-2 in conference, and finish ahead of us, because they didn't have to play UGA.

 

[skydawg1]

so LSU's going to go 6-2 in conference, and finish ahead of us, because they didn't have to play UGA.

That's true, but they have that Troy loss plus that dern MState loss. SEC standings won't mean much to the committee when State and LSU both finish 9-3. The committee knows Florida missed that XP and Auburn let off the gas that day in Tiger Stadium.

 

[o_1984Dawg]

They lost to Troy.

They're an average team who's slowly starting to get overconfident again. I think they've got one more egg to lay.

 

[FlotownDawg]

If we had been scheduled to play ANY of the six other East teams, we’d have a great shot of finishing 10-2 and have a good shot at a big six bowl. But the computer had to schedule us against the only East team that’s any good, and on the road no less.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

If we beat Hogs, ReBearLandSharts and don't get humiliated by BAMA , then we will play in Citrus....if we lose 2 of 3 Nashville....

 

[bulldognation]

CollegeFootballNews.com: Gator Bowl vs Northwestern

I’d be perfectly fine to never play Northwestern or Georgia Tech ever again.

 

[GhostOfJackie]

When are people going to realize that (Belk, Liberty, Texas, Gator, Music City and Outback) are all completely equal bowls? The next "best bowl" after Citrus is not the Outback Bowl. While we might personally think that is the best bowl, the SEC sees all 6 of these as equal bowls.

The SEC bowl line up up is:

-PLayoffs (Picked by committee according to CFP rankings)
-New Years 6 Bowls (Picked by committee according to CFP rankings)

-Citrus (Picked by bowl)

-Outback, Liberty, Belk, Texas, Music City, Gator (picked by bowl in coordination with SEC)

-Birmingham and Shreveport (neither will be filled by SEC team this year)

 

[campshelbydog842003]

We still have an excellent chance at a NY6 game. The Bama win over LSU helped us. All we need now is Auburn to lose against Georgia and Bama and us go 9-3 and we will have a real shot at an at large birth to a NY6 game.

 

[MSUDawgFan86]

CollegeFootballNews.com: Gator Bowl vs Northwestern

I’d be perfectly fine to never play Northwestern or Georgia Tech ever again.

I’m taking the opposite stance and I want to
Play them and beat those guys. If we ran from everyone that beat us or Scared us hell we wouldn’t be able to play Anyone. Put 17ing Maine, South alabama, Northwestern, and Ga Tech on the schedule during the same season. Bring it!

 

[DAWGS1.sixpack]

Give me Penn St, Ohio St, Michigan, or Mich State in any of the FL bowls or Music City and its all good.
Would prefer the Citrus or Outback bc it's on January 1 prior to the Playoff games.

 

[QuaoarsKing]

Another legitimate possibility: Orange Bowl autobid

The top SEC, Big 10, or Notre Dame team that's not in the playoff goes to the Orange Bowl, no matter what their ranking is, even if outside the top 12.

A playoff of Alabama, Georgia, Notre Dame, and Wisconsin could send us to the Orange Bowl with a little Big 10 chaos.

 

[Msubulldogfan1]

I just hope we get a legit opponent, Michigan, OSU, somebody that it means something if we win, that could change perception.

 

[blacklistedbully]

What about Auburn? AU can do no worse than 5-3. For Bama to make the playoffs, they must beat us, so we are looking at no better than 5-3 in your scenario, and AU has the tie-breaker over us.

Worse, it is unlikely LSU loses another, so they will be ahead of us by a game.

If AU loses to UGA & Bama, & LSU manages to lose to aTm, a 3-way tie with us (assuming we beat UPig & UNM) would still put AU ahead of us, as LSU would be eliminated by loss to aTm, then us via loss to AU.

I believe the only way for us to come in 2nd behind Bama (assuming a loss to Bama) is for LSu to lose only to Tenn, so there is a 3-way tie with us, LSU & AU...and UK finishing with an equal or better conference record than Mizzou. In that scenario, I believe we would win on the final tie-breaker. If Mizzou finishes ahead of UK, then AU wins again.

 

[QuaoarsKing]

It will be up to the committee. Auburn would be 8-4 since they lost to Clemson.

I think a 12-1 Alabama team that loses to us but beats Auburn and Georgia not only makes the playoffs but is the #1 seed

 

[00Dawg]

Before Saturday I'd have said you were crazy.

Now, it's just a longshot.
The key is the Big 10, obviously, and with Michigan State rolling up in the rankings, it's hard to get a scenario where they, Penn State, and Ohio State are all behind us in the CFP rankings.

You'd pretty much need Penn State to lay an egg in one of their 3 remaining games (Rutgers, Nebraska, Maryland), with only Maryland on the road.
Michigan State plays at Ohio State in the de facto Big Ten East championship game, then finishes up with Maryland and a visit to Rutgers.
Ohio State hosts Sparty, then Illinois, and finishes up on the road at Michigan.

So, perfect scenario is Ohio State squeaks by Michigan State (who drops another game somewhere), then loses badly to Michigan, and again in the title game.

That leaves us vs a 9-3 PSU, an 8-4 Sparty, and a 9-4 Ohio State for the Orange Bowl. Somehow I still think PSU would get it, but you never know.

 

[kired]

Us and LSU have the easiest routes to 9 wins. Auburn has to beat Georgia or Bama. South Carolina would have to beat Clemson, and I'm not even going to consider Kentucky winning out (still have to play @ Georgia). At this point you've got to think one of MSU / LSU ends up in the Citrus bowl.

I'd guess South Carolina and Auburn both end up 8-4. I think one of them gets Belk for sure, and the other goes to either Gator or Outback.

I think two of Kentucky / Mizzou / Vandy / Tenn split the Music City & Liberty.

Tx A&M is a real question mark. They could very well end up at 6-6 but I don't think they get left out of the group of 6. They would still end up with more SEC wins than Tenn or Vandy if either of those get to 6 wins. But they'd obviously be the least desirable of the bunch. Do you send them to Texas for a second year in a row, send them all the way to Florida, or back to one of the Tennessee bowls (played in Liberty 2014 and Music City 2015)?

I think it comes down to matchups for Texas, Gator, and Outback - and that depends on how other conferences play out. But I think we end up in one of those three (if Citrus or NYD6 doesn't happen). I really don't want to go back to Jacksonville for a 3rd time in 8 years...

 

[BulldogBlitz]

aTm is the really big question on their bowl. Sumlin home before or after? Which bowl wants that?

 

[blacklistedbully]

Autobid goes to highest finisher. AU would win the tiebreaker over us in all but the most extreme 3-way tiebreaker.

Us beating Bama changes that, but I don't think Bama would be #1 if they lose to us...period. There are at least 5 teams below them now (and UGa ahead) that would be ahead as long as those others win next week. Just how many of them do you think will lose either next week, the week after, or in a conference CG?

And most experts seem to think the only possibility for both UGA & Bama to make it would be for them to be 1 & 2 going into the SECCG. And most of those think it would have to be 2 beating 1. Hard to see Bama getting back up to 2 prior to the SECCG with a loss to us.

 

[QuaoarsKing]

Autobid goes to whomever the CFP Committee ranks highest, regardless of any head to head, conference record or overall record.

The Committee might (and arguably should) put an 8-4 Auburn team in front of 9-3 us, but it's their call 100%.

 

[Msubulldogfan1]

Autobid goes to whomever the CFP Committee ranks highest, regardless of any head to head, conference record or overall record.

The Committee might (and arguably should) put an 8-4 Auburn team in front of 9-3 us, but it's their call 100%.

What would the arguement be that should put an 8-4 Auburn over a 9-3 State? Because they lost to Clemson? I don’t buy that for a minute.

 

[00Dawg]

From an objective observer...

(okay, not really), factoring in recent bowl appearances and assuming this finish:
State: 9-3
LSU: 9-3
Auburn: 8-4
UK: 8-4
SoCar: 8-4
TAMU: 7-5
Mizzou: 7-5
Vandy:5-7 (APR)

Citrus: State
Outback: LSU
Texas: Auburn
Gator: TAMU
Belk: SoCar
Music City: UK
Liberty: Mizzou
Birmingham: Vandy

I was going to factor in geography, but Arkansas was in the Belk Bowl last year, so I think we've been sent a message that isn't as large of a factor anymore.
I also think if the Texas Bowl has a chance to match up TAMU and UT, they might take it, regardless of TAMU having been there last year.

 

[QuaoarsKing]

They beat us 45-10 and in this scenario only have an extra loss because they played Clemson and we played BYU. I hope the committee would still pick us on overall balance of resume, but we couldn't really complain if they didn't.

We just need to beat Alabama and were almost a lock for a NY6 bowl, probably Orange.

 

[patdog]

Yeah. I hope they'd pick us too, but I don't think we would have a legitimate complaint if they didn't.

 

[campshelbydog842003]

The NY6 game will go to who finishes highest in the CFB playoff poll (if the sec gets 3 teams in the NY6 bowls), not who finishes highest in the conference tie breaker. Unless Auburn upsets Georgia or Alabama, we are going to a NY6 bowl over them at 9-3 because they are going to drop below us when they go 8-4......unless we drop so far in the polls after an Alabama loss that we can’t make up ground, which is very unlikely.