Bowl Projections: post-Week 12

[00Dawg]

Trend from the previous listing will be marked as ▲,▼, or -, if available. Due to SEC bowl tiers, some trends are subjective.


CBS: Texas Bowl vs Iowa State -
CFN: Gator Bowl vs Wake Forest ▼
SaturdayDownSouth: Texas Bowl vs Iowa State -
247 Sports: Texas Bowl vs TCU -
Brett McMurphy: Texas Bowl vs Iowa State -
College Sports Madness: Music City Bowl vs Purdue -
Athlon Sports: Music City Bowl vs Minnesota -
ProFootballNetwork: Texas Bowl vs Iowa State -
Last Word in Sports: Music City Bowl vs Penn State -
Sporting News: Birmingham Bowl vs Houston -
The Athletic: Music City Bowl vs Purdue -
USA Today: Texas Bowl vs WVU -
Bleacher Report: Music City Bowl vs Penn State -
Yahoo Sports: Texas Bowl vs Texas Tech -
Schlabach: Gator Bowl vs Clemson -
BowlSeason: Liberty Bowl vs WVU -
Sports Illustrated: Birmingham Bowl vs Clemson (new)



Not updated yet:
Bonagura: Outback Bowl vs Wisconsin ▲
On3: Duke's Mayo Bowl vs Wake Forest (new)



Updates for ESPN and The Athletic appreciated.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

Athletic prediction remains the same— Music City versus Purdue

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

I’m thinking Texas or Music City regardless of the outcome The Battle for the Golden Egg.

 

[Duke Humphrey]

I am thinking the same, except just Texas as the option.

 

[RiverCityDawg]

This season is littered with different "what ifs", but we're going to end up a Treylon Burks fourth down stumble over Emerson's feet called defensive holding away from a New Year's Six Bowl.

 

[GloryDawg]

I am pulling for LSU to get bowl eligible. That means they beat A&M.

 

[Southern Law Dawg]

Feels like 100% of the predictions that are in are based on us losing the Egg, despite the game being close to a pick em. I'll take these seriously next week.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

That's exactly what's going on. Mandel of the Athletic is projecting three 5-7 bowl teams (Florida, Illinois, and Middle Tennessee are his guesses based on the last APR rates available from 2018-19).

 

[dawgstudent]

That's exactly what's going on. Mandel of the Athletic is projecting three 5-7 bowl teams (Florida, Illinois, and Middle Tennessee are his guesses based on the last APR rates available from 2018-19).

No way Florida goes. I just don't think Florida would accept a bowl bid at 5-7.

 

[wsjmsu75]

Feels like 100% of the predictions that are in are based on us losing the Egg, despite the game being close to a pick em. I'll take these seriously next week.

Exactly what I was thinking. Seems to me like we would be quite higher on the chain at 8-4 with 5 wins over top 25 teams.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

I doubt it too given their situation. I expect all 5-7 bowl teams to not have a coach that's fired.

 

[615dawg]

We aren't going to the Birmingham Bowl in any scenario.

I maintain the following

With a win:

Citrus 70%
Texas 25%
Sugar 3%
Other 2%

With a loss:

Liberty 40%
Texas 25%
Gator 25%
Duke's Mayo 5%
Music City 5%

 

[patdog]

I agree. It's far from a given they'll get that 5th win anyway.

 

[patdog]

Win - Texas Bowl
Lose - Liberty Bowl

 

[Duke Humphrey]

I think Houston regardless since weve never been and also have already played in the LB this season

 

[Drebin]

We aren't going to the Birmingham Bowl in any scenario.

I maintain the following

With a win:

Citrus 70%
Texas 25%
Sugar 3%
Other 2%

With a loss:

Liberty 40%
Texas 25%
Gator 25%
Duke's Mayo 5%
Music City 5%

This is the most likely scenario:

With a win:

Duke's Mayo 40%
Texas 40%
Gator 10%
Outback 5%
Citrus 5% (generous)
Sugar ZERO POINT ZERO

With a loss:

Texas 35%
Liberty 30%
Duke's Mayo 20%
Music City 10%
Gator 5%

 

[wsjmsu75]

This is the most likely scenario:

With a win:

Duke's Mayo 40%
Texas 40%
Gator 10%
Outback 5%
Citrus 5% (generous)
Sugar ZERO POINT ZERO

With a loss:

Texas 35%
Liberty 30%
Duke's Mayo 20%
Music City 10%
Gator 5%

If accurate, that is ridiculous for an 8-4 team with 5 wins against top 25 teams. Especially given that one (Arkansas definitely) or maybe two (Memphis) of the losses were complete screw jobs by the SEC refs.

 

[Drebin]

If accurate, that is ridiculous for an 8-4 team with 5 wins against top 25 teams. Especially given that one (Arkansas definitely) or maybe two (Memphis) of the losses were complete screw jobs by the SEC refs.

Number one, we don't have five wins against top 25 teams. We have two. We have a chance at a third, and a chance to lose one of them if LSU beats A&M or NC State loses.

Number two, nobody's gonna give us preferential treatment in bowl selection because a ref call went against us. That's why it's silly to harp on referees. We have to take care of our own business.

 

[wsjmsu75]

Number one, we don't have five wins against top 25 teams. We have two. We have a chance at a third, and a chance to lose one of them if LSU beats A&M or NC State loses.

Number two, nobody's gonna give us preferential treatment in bowl selection because a ref call went against us. That's why it's silly to harp on referees. We have to take care of our own business.

Number one, we would have 5 wins against teams that were top 25 when we played them, or are currently top 25.

Number two, maybe not but it absolutely should be taken into consideration when considering teams with similar resumes.

 

[DoggieDaddy13]

Number one, we would have 5 wins against teams that were top 25 when we played them, or are currently top 25.

Number two, maybe not but it absolutely should be taken into consideration when considering teams with similar resumes.

Should it? Yes. Will it? no 17n way.

 

[DoggieDaddy13]

What will potentially save us is Leach and the airwaves appeal of the air raid - it's all about the ratings.

It will not be because anyone wants to make amends about us getting screwed by SEC officiating.

 

[Drebin]

Number one, we would have 5 wins against teams that were top 25 when we played them, or are currently top 25.

Number two, maybe not but it absolutely should be taken into consideration when considering teams with similar resumes.

They never count top 25 wins based on where they were ranked when they played. It's always where they finished the season. Auburn and Kentucky are out of the rankings. Thankfully for us, NC State and A&M are hanging on.

If you're going to take officiating into consideration, you have to also take into consideration that State's poor play put them in a position where a bad call beat them. We had a chance to put both of those games away and didn't do it. So, by all means, be mad about the poor calls, but don't be one of those guys looking for a bailout because we didn't take care of business.

 

[patdog]

Where else would we go? We're not going to the Sugar or Citrus. We'd be a game behind A&M, UM and UK and ranked behind UM and A&M, and even with Arkansas. There's a good chance Bama gets the Sugar after losing to Georgia, so that moves everyone down a notch if it happens.

 

[00Dawg]

Anybody got the latest ESPN Insider ones?

A couple of others updated in the meantime.

 

[msudawg1200]

I think it's the Texas Bowl win or lose the Egg

 

[8dog]

If you beat the number 1 team in the country in game 1 and they go 0-12 should you get credit for beating the number 1 team in the country at year end?