Bowl game analytics

[Uncle Ruckus]

What’s the best analytics to use for predicting wins? I’m in a pool to win some decent change and I don’t want my dumb brain throwing a wrench into potential earnings. I know that their are some good ones out there that predict at high clips, just can’t remember what they are.

 

[msstate7]

Send me $100... I’ll give you my locks. I’m very analytical**

 

[DudyDog]

msstate7 is too high. I only charge $99 But here is some free advice. To win a bowl pool, it's not so much picking the favorite to win....that's the easy part. The key is picking the 4-5 upsets that will occur that nobody sees coming. That separates the one winner from all of the losers.

 

[CochiseCowbell]

$75 & a 6 pack of Stella is my fee. Here's the advice: get your wife/girlfriend/daughter to pick for you. Chicks always win these things.

 

[Uncle Ruckus]

Well I’m 17ed. Really not a whole lot of male teachers where I work.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

What’s the best analytics to use for predicting wins? I’m in a pool to win some decent change and I don’t want my dumb brain throwing a wrench into potential earnings. I know that their are some good ones out there that predict at high clips, just can’t remember what they are.

Put all your points on the first few games. That way if you miss them you’ll know you lost and can ignore the contest the rest of bowl season.

 

[FQDawg]

You might as well flip a coin for most of the games. Bowls are often times a complete crapshoot.

 

[tatedog]

A good and simple method is to go back and look at where teams were ranked at the start of the season and what realistic team goals were. Teams that are in bowls above expectations usually show up to play more than teams that didn't meet expectations. When in doubt, go with the underdog. These methods are more effective for the minor to mid level bowls. The higher bowls can be treated more like regular season games.

 

[missouridawg]

A good and simple method is to go back and look at where teams were ranked at the start of the season and what realistic team goals were. Teams that are in bowls above expectations usually show up to play more than teams that didn't meet expectations. When in doubt, go with the underdog. These methods are more effective for the minor to mid level bowls. The higher bowls can be treated more like regular season games.

Its all about finding teams that are motivated, as alluded to here. That motivation can come from coaching changes, opponent prestige, meeting/failing expectations....

There are also games like ours where the coaching and QB mismatch is so large, that you’d never convince me to consider us to win. We might, but it would be pure luck for Knox to beat Petrino.

 

[tatedog]

Our two trips to the Gator Bowl under Mullen are classic examples. Versus Michigan, we were excited to be there playing a big "name" even though they weren't a vintage Michigan team. Meanwhile, Michigan is going through the motions in a bowl game beneath where they expected to be. We blow them out.

Northwestern wasn't a team we were excited to play, and being in the Gator Bowl was a bigger deal to them while we were making a "return" appearance.

 

[missouridawg]

Our two trips to the Gator Bowl under Mullen are classic examples. Versus Michigan, we were excited to be there playing a big "name" even though they weren't a vintage Michigan team. Meanwhile, Michigan is going through the motions in a bowl game beneath where they expected to be. We blow them out.

Northwestern wasn't a team we were excited to play, and being in the Gator Bowl was a bigger deal to them while we were making a "return" appearance.

Our lethargic win against Wake Forest and our Liberty Bowl win against Rice both fit this too. Against WF, we were pissed with a lesser, no name opponent. Against Rice, we had 3 straight wins, capped with Daks fourth quarter heroics in the Egg Bowl. We weren’t supposed to be in a bowl that year, but miraculously made it. Dak got healthy and we blew them out.

Motivation is what I try to make my picks off of.... and it’s not always easy to identify the real motivators for each team.

 

[MeridianDog]

I will do it for a bottle of Old Charter.

I may not be proven, but I am cheap.

 

[Apoplectic_Objurgator]

What’s the best analytics to use for predicting wins? I’m in a pool to win some decent change and I don’t want my dumb brain throwing a wrench into potential earnings. I know that their are some good ones out there that predict at high clips, just can’t remember what they are.

Prettiest helmets is my method. That'll be 20$ - I'm on paypal

 

[BossDawg78]

There are also games like ours where the coaching and QB mismatch is so large, that you’d never convince me to consider us to win. We might, but it would be pure luck for Knox to beat Petrino.

This is the first State bowl game ever that I legitimately dread. Outside of maybe better talent/depth in a few positions, we don't have much going our way it seems.