bitcoin explained lol

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

The funny thing is I saw this video because Elon Musk tweeted it after his company invested $1.5 billion.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

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Remind me who gets *** again?


ETA. I guess Luke Skywalker technically did kiss his sister.

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

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18% in a pandemic isn't bad.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

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+18% a year I can live with... -19% in 2 days is silly. That's not a store of value, it's speculation and like you said before... Price discovery. But with people like Yellen lining up against, that price discovery may push a long way down. Because from here up, it's going to take institutional money to get exponential growth. Institutions don't like volatility and warnings from Treasury Secretaries.

 

[JungRebel]

Let's talk USDT. Do you think today is a favorable result for Tether? Think the SEC or DOJ will eventually get involved? See lots of people saying the FUD is over but it seems like the NYAG has left the big dicks a blueprint.

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

Nothing highlights the difference between you and me better than me posting multiyear returns and you zooming in to two daily candles to say bitcoin is too volatile and preferring an asset that returned less in ten years than bitcoin has returned in one year.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

Nothing highlights the difference between you and me better than me posting multiyear returns and you zooming in to two daily candles to say bitcoin is too volatile and preferring an asset that returned less in ten years than bitcoin has returned in one year.

Bitcoin is a speculative position. Not an asset class. You compared it to the S&P500. 500 of the world's best individual stocks selected for their profitability and durability. Compare it to an individual stock if you want apples to apples, not the SP500.

I have a stock I own that acts like BTC. It was down 15% for the day at one point this morning. Then got back into the positive, and it's now currently down .44%. Over the last 12 months it's up 1100%. That's a more apt comparison. You won't catch me out here pumping it though, because I know its speculative, volatile, and not guaranteed to ever get back to it previous day's high.

What does Bitcoin behave like,.. an individual stock.. hopefully we can at least agree on that. Yet somehow you call it a store of value. You store value somewhere that it can be easily accessed in the future, it is easily convertible, it is safe from thieves, it holds it value or appreciates, but doesn't depreciate significantly.

Bitcoin barely meets any of those criteria at this point. It's appreciated significantly since inception, but it's also been down big-time over short and medium time-frames. Just like a speculative stock. It can't be both speculative and a store of value.... Which is why I was busting your chops the other day about it's market cap. It's either a really big speculative asset or a really tiny and volatile store of value.

It's big compared to a stock, but tiny for a store of value. It behaves like a growth stock, but it's only reason to increase in value is the "speculation" that someone else wants it more than you tomorrow. At least with a stock, if the company is profitable, you can collect your share of profits in perpetuity even if nobody ever wants to buy it from you again.

 

[johnson86-1]

Bitcoin is a speculative position. Not an asset class. You compared it to the S&P500. 500 of the world's best individual stocks selected for their profitability and durability. Compare it to an individual stock if you want apples to apples, not the SP500.

I have a stock I own that acts like BTC. It was down 15% for the day at one point this morning. Then got back into the positive, and it's now currently down .44%. Over the last 12 months it's up 1100%. That's a more apt comparison. You won't catch me out here pumping it though, because I know its speculative, volatile, and not guaranteed to ever get back to it previous day's high.

What does Bitcoin behave like,.. an individual stock.. hopefully we can at least agree on that. Yet somehow you call it a store of value. You store value somewhere that it can be easily accessed in the future, it is easily convertible, it is safe from thieves, it holds it value or appreciates, but doesn't depreciate significantly.

Bitcoin barely meets any of those criteria at this point. It's appreciated significantly since inception, but it's also been down big-time over short and medium time-frames. Just like a speculative stock. It can't be both speculative and a store of value.... Which is why I was busting your chops the other day about it's market cap. It's either a really big speculative asset or a really tiny and volatile store of value.

It's big compared to a stock, but tiny for a store of value. It behaves like a growth stock, but it's only reason to increase in value is the "speculation" that someone else wants it more than you tomorrow. At least with a stock, if the company is profitable, you can collect your share of profits in perpetuity even if nobody ever wants to buy it from you again.

Are precious metals not an asset class? I mean, I know they are physical metals and have uses, but that's not generally what drives their value. They're a more established version of bitcoin. They are seen as I guess primarily as something negatively correlated with currency? And also maybe an asset class non-correlated or negatively correlated with stocks? The difference is that gold is physical, which understandably gives some people the warm and fuzzies, even though they likely don't actually hold any physical gold, but on the flipside makes it impractical as an alternative to currency, which bitcoin could actually be, at least until governments decide they don't like the competition.

I would agree it's a speculative position, just like gold is, but that seems like it's an asset and if you believe in it, it's a store of value for wealth you won't need in the near future.

ETA: I don't have a position on bitcoin other than to wish I had put money into a long time ago. Still don't have any.

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

In a previous thread you said not to compare bitcoin to individual stocks. You said compare it to gold (an asset class). I don't care what you compare it to. But zooming in to a two day period in response to 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 year returns beating gold and the S&P 500 is telling.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

Don't compare it to stocks if you are going to call it a store of value. If you compare it to stocks you have to admit it's only stock like quality is that it's speculative. Tell me what the value of BTC is...

Is it the utility as a currency? Hope not, that's what will make governments squash it. If it is compare it to the various currency markets.

Is it a store of value? If so compare it to other stores of value (Bonds, Real Estate, Gold)

Is it a stock. Absolutely not.

What is it then.... Well it's an alt currency, that is wanting to be a store of value when it grows up down the road. Effectively, it's a small cap/store of value. It's in its infancy. It will either grow up to be Gold or it will go away are the most likely options...

Because of the volatility, it ludacris to compare it to Apple, Microsoft, or the entire S&P on returns.
Because it's a store of value, it's ludacris to compare it to any individual stock based on "cap". If it were a stock, it behaves like ZM. So if you want to compare returns, look at small caps.

Would you advise anyone dump 30-50-70% into a small cap stock.... I hope not.

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

Compare an asset larger than Facebook and Tesla to small caps. Got it.

Whatever you compare it to, bitcoin is a long term investment. You pointed out two daily candles of an asset that is up 49% over one month, 63% YTD, 157% over three months, and 397% over one year.

 

[JungRebel]

Is it misguided to call a stock like AMZN a store of value? No dividend, likely to retain its value and appreciate, you can borrow against it as collateral, etc. Comparisons to crypto can be drawn to that idea but I'm not sold on the store of value argument until a cryptocurrency attains value by being used as a security for a company or as the driving force behind a prolific transaction system - or perhaps as a way to store liquid wealth privately (e.g. XMR) - or some other way of attaining utility that strengthens belief in a store of value. The only thing that makes BTC a store of value right now AFAIK is the relative ease of use compared to other currencies/stores of value and the BELIEF that it will continue to be a store of value and probably appreciate. It does not currently have any way of 'turning a profit' except by speculatively trading it. All that said, I do believe the technology behind it and what has come after it is going to be used by someone to innovate and make a **** ton of money.

 

[Apoplectic_Objurgator]

Anyone see Michael Saylor on cnbc this morning - I think he has a good grasp on btc potential

 

[Indognito]

I am old and also a confirmed Luddite so here's another opinion of crypto currencies from a WSJ opinion piece.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/behind-the-bitcoin-bubble-11612125537

Perhaps chickens as currency were best after all. If I buy something for half a chicken, how many eggs do I get in change?