Bill Connelly's MSU preview for 2018

[MSUDC11]

https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...i-state-football-2018-preview-schedule-roster

The wool is growing thick, boys.

 

[dickiedawg]

I have no idea how his rankings have us 14the and losing 4 regular season games. That means we lost to every team ranked above us (Alabama, Auburn) and went 0-2 in games against teams ranked within 10 spots of us (aTm and LSU).

This would be a very disappointing season.

 

[LilSebastian]

I have no idea how his rankings have us 14the and losing 4 regular season games. That means we lost to every team ranked above us (Alabama, Auburn) and went 0-2 in games against teams ranked within 10 spots of us (aTm and LSU).

This would be a very disappointing season.

Because of how he does his rankings, he nearly never picks teams to go undefeated. Imagine the following scenario (making up numbers):
SFA 75% chance of victory
@KSU 75% chance of victory
ULL 75% chance of victory
@UK 75% chance of victory

He’s saying that we should win each individual game, but over a 4 game stretch its likely that we lose one of those games for whatever reason. You can even just add up the win/loss probabilities, and you get 3-1. It’s also plausible that we go 2-2 or 4-0. In 2017, he picked Bama to win each game, but there were enough games in the 60-70% win category that he picked them to go 11-1, and voila.

FWIW, he’s still having to base all his predictions on a Dan Mullen offense. Much of the subtext is that a “clicking” Joe Moorhead offense could get State much higher than the 33rd best offense Dan Mullen would be trotting out. A top-20 offense and a top-15 defense should do very well.