People McMurphy talks to strongly think ND will join the B10. Not that he'd report it as fact but that's what he's hearing. All the reasons they stayed indy are falling away. GORs cost still murky for the ACC schools and even somewhat for ND but not having football included makes a difference.
Big Ten not done?
- Thread starter Mikemarc
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People McMurphy talks to strongly think ND will join the B10. Not that he'd report it as fact but that's what he's hearing. All the reasons they stayed indy are falling away. GORs cost still murky for the ACC schools and even somewhat for ND but not having football included makes a difference.
I look for the B1G to make sure the 2 LA schools aren't the only western entrants and decide to end the expansion era for them by adding 4 more from the west from these choices
Stanford and or Cal , Colorado , Washington and Oregon.(Portland is the #21 media market)
I believe Utah is a member of the Association of American Universities, which might help the B1G consider adding it as a member and Salt Lake City ( #30) falls in the Utah media marker
FYI all Pac-12 are AAU except for 3:
- Arizona State
- Washington State
- Oregon State
USC, UCLA and the other 7 remaining are all AAU
Big12: Kansas
SEC: Texas, Vanderbilt, Florida, Missouri, and Texas A&M
ACC: Duke, GTech, UNC, Pitt, UVA
- Arizona State
- Washington State
- Oregon State
USC, UCLA and the other 7 remaining are all AAU
Big12: Kansas
SEC: Texas, Vanderbilt, Florida, Missouri, and Texas A&M
ACC: Duke, GTech, UNC, Pitt, UVA
This is all fun and games speculating on the chess moves. Crazy fun in the off-season. At the end of the day Rutgers is in. The $100mm a year is phenomenal!
Personally, as a fan, I just want to see us play interesting matchups. PSU, MD, WVU, Pitt, OSU, Mich, Minn and anybody from Indiana FTW. Throw in Sewercuse and BC and Army or Navy every couple of years.
I don't care if a middle of the road RU plays a middle of the road CA school unless it involved a bowl game.
All politics is local and so are all sports.
Personally, as a fan, I just want to see us play interesting matchups. PSU, MD, WVU, Pitt, OSU, Mich, Minn and anybody from Indiana FTW. Throw in Sewercuse and BC and Army or Navy every couple of years.
I don't care if a middle of the road RU plays a middle of the road CA school unless it involved a bowl game.
All politics is local and so are all sports.
If the Big Ten goes to 18 schools, it won't be Oregon and Washington. They might be good at football but they don't have the TV market and fanbases and ratings to be of much value.
The only school that has the a big enough name value and would be WORTH adding would be UND. UND ALONE could add MORE than Ore and Wash COMBINED. At that point the 18th school doesn't really matter, they can even allow UND to pick them to sweeten the pot. Currently, UND only annual rivals are USC (heading to the B1G) and Navy and Stanford. Of course, Navy is NOT joining the Big Ten.
So the only thing that makes sense is UND and Stanford. That also gives the Big Ten a 3rd Cal school which would also make UCLA and USC happy.
IMHO.
The only school that has the a big enough name value and would be WORTH adding would be UND. UND ALONE could add MORE than Ore and Wash COMBINED. At that point the 18th school doesn't really matter, they can even allow UND to pick them to sweeten the pot. Currently, UND only annual rivals are USC (heading to the B1G) and Navy and Stanford. Of course, Navy is NOT joining the Big Ten.
So the only thing that makes sense is UND and Stanford. That also gives the Big Ten a 3rd Cal school which would also make UCLA and USC happy.
IMHO.
"Multiple reports from around the country are citing the Big 12 Conference will meet with four Pac 12 Conference teams, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah on Tuesday to discuss the possibility of joining the Big 12. "
"There is also an indication both the SEC and Big Ten are looking to expand to 20 members, further causing anxiety among fans and administrators alike. "
ND only owes an exit fee if they move basketball, baseball, etc, the non football sports out of the ACC early. They could just move football and not pay any exit fee.
Theyāre obligated to join the ACC in football if they join a conference so thereās going to be some fee to get out of that.
Also theyāre not moving football to the B10 and leaving their other sports in the ACC until 2036. They can however leave the rights for those sports with the ACC. Thereās a figure on that from 2019-20. They got 10.8M from the ACC. So write the ACC a check every year for approx 10M til 2036 for those rights. Let Fox explicitly break down how much is for football and how much is for the other sports and send that 10M or so annually to the ACC til 2036. The amount of money they will get from just football will still be a ton. So pay the exit fee and send an annual check, seems very doable.
UND also has a contract with NBC which last though the 2026 season. So they would need to just pay around 97.2 million to leave the ACC for all sports starting in 2027.
USC and UCLA are joining in 2024 so it would be just 3 years after that.
A new Big Ten Contract with USC, UCLA and UND could be worth close to or even more than 100 million per year per school!! that is just TV money. Add to that more money from tickets, merch, donations, etc. so 97.2 million isn't that bad plus as you said they wouldn't have to pay it off at once.
We will know soon enough.
Forde thinks they will stay independent for as long as they can and for now can remain so. If that be the case the ACC GOR would be the timeframe and potential destabilization of the ACC at that time but we'll see.
From the article:
āThe next decision,ā one industry insider told Sports Illustrated, āreally rests with Notre Dame.ā That same person speculated the decision could come āin a week, or six months, or a year from now. We donāt know.ā
A source familiar with the schoolās thinking told Sports Illustrated that āindependence remains the preference and the leader in the clubhouse.ā It will take a lot to move Notre Dame off its cherished identity, but the instability of the entire landscape remains a concern, and could further affect the Irish outlook.
In numbers that resonate with TV executives, Notre Dame ranks eighth in the number of non-bowl/playoff games watched in recent seasons by at least three million people, per Sports Media Watch. The Irish had a total of 16 games with three million or more viewers in 2018, ā19 and ā21 (tossing 2020 numbers due to the disparity in number of games played across the nation). That ranks behind only Alabama (26), Ohio State (25), Georgia (22), Michigan (22), Oklahoma (22), Penn State (19) and LSU (18). Itās worth noting that every school ahead of Notre Dame on the list is a current or future member of the Big Ten or SEC. And the next four after the Irish are, as well (Auburn, Wisconsin, Florida and Texas A&M).
The guess here is the school maintains its independence as long as it can, through July 4, 2023, and beyond.
That only changes if the current structure continues to destabilize in a profound way. Which, hey, could happen. While much of college sports is waiting for signs from Notre Dame, the school can afford to wait for signs from everyone else.
www.si.com
From the article:
āThe next decision,ā one industry insider told Sports Illustrated, āreally rests with Notre Dame.ā That same person speculated the decision could come āin a week, or six months, or a year from now. We donāt know.ā
A source familiar with the schoolās thinking told Sports Illustrated that āindependence remains the preference and the leader in the clubhouse.ā It will take a lot to move Notre Dame off its cherished identity, but the instability of the entire landscape remains a concern, and could further affect the Irish outlook.
In numbers that resonate with TV executives, Notre Dame ranks eighth in the number of non-bowl/playoff games watched in recent seasons by at least three million people, per Sports Media Watch. The Irish had a total of 16 games with three million or more viewers in 2018, ā19 and ā21 (tossing 2020 numbers due to the disparity in number of games played across the nation). That ranks behind only Alabama (26), Ohio State (25), Georgia (22), Michigan (22), Oklahoma (22), Penn State (19) and LSU (18). Itās worth noting that every school ahead of Notre Dame on the list is a current or future member of the Big Ten or SEC. And the next four after the Irish are, as well (Auburn, Wisconsin, Florida and Texas A&M).
The guess here is the school maintains its independence as long as it can, through July 4, 2023, and beyond.
That only changes if the current structure continues to destabilize in a profound way. Which, hey, could happen. While much of college sports is waiting for signs from Notre Dame, the school can afford to wait for signs from everyone else.
Notre Dame will play the realignment waiting gameābecause it can - Sports Illustrated
The school has long had academic prestige, football and financial success and the autonomy of FBS independence, but will college sportsā instability affect that?
www.si.com
I think the only thing we can say with certainty about expansion going forward is that Oregon State and Washington State are f**ked.
Notre Dame is currently planted in position with an NBC deal through 2025, one which is reportedly worth $15 million annually.
So I was mistaken before they could join a year earlier. Which is even better.
Someone posted it was
I have seen several people post that ND would be going from $40 million to $100 million (est). Where does the additional $25 million come from?
This seems highly likely. They will be nice additions for the Mountain West at some point.
I guess I shouldāve posted this tweet in a couple threads like I do sometimes. Iāve seen this twice now since Iāve posted it lol.
It still sticks to my two year timeframe which Iāve mentioned so wouldnāt rule it out yet. Also as long as Oregon/Wash are not tied down by a GOR, the B10ās next deal could be another short one so that would be another window for a move if they want. I still donāt think leaving USC/UCLA out there alone is the long term strategy of the B10.
Also whether itās Wilner (who discounted anyone leaving the PAC 12 for the B10) or any other media, most of them arenāt great prognosticators for things that arenāt absolutely obvious. Good for breaking news thatās happened but not so much predicting.
Stop with the UNC/UVA crap. Aināt happening & the latter brings nothing to the table other than keeping the conference contiguous pre-usc/ucla. But thatās out the window now. Big Ten needs to add more WC teams to partner with usc/ucla. Looks like Warren is going to blow that ( usc/ucla fell into his lap) as I see 6 teams including OR are in discussions to join the B12. Dumbass Warren is gonna miss the boat waiting on ND
I still say sont sleep on the no 6 media market. Take Cal and Stanford, Will have 5 of the top 6 markets in the fold.
then Notre Dame has one more reason to join up.
then Notre Dame has one more reason to join up.
I'm thinking about how an alliance between the ACC, Pac 12 and Big 12 might work. Cross-conference games between #1 and #2 teams from each of the three during conference championship week. I continue to think about how the conference championship week could effectively be the first round of playoffs.
Plus, Sacramento is #20 market. Combined, the Bay Area + Sacramento is bigger than the Chicago market.
Add Washington & Oregon NOW. That locks up the PNW. Then if ND ever decides to join add Cal or Stanford to get to 20. I bet Warren is a great checkers player
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I doubt waiting will hurt anything.
Warren will pick and choose whose the best fit of the Western PAC programs left after UCLA & USCand know they won't make a move to the Big 12 until they are told the B1G isn't an option.
Only 2 out of the 4 (Cal,Stanford , Oregon & Washington ) programs that Warren and most people think might be worth an invite could end up B1G while the B1G Commish waits to see if the SEC tries to raid the ACC.
If the SEC stages a raid, look for Warren to talk to NC & UV about being a better fit in the B1G than they would be in the SEC.
Meanwhile back on the farm: Notre Dame will fight for football independence and talk to the Big East about its other programs if the ACC implodes
They will find a way to keep their football program independent and be a fan favorite so every top program wants to schedule them.
The Big 12 will probably pick up ASU,UofA ,Colorado and Utah this go around with Oregon and Washington possibilities if Warren tells them no room at the inn.
That no room at the inn will be because he might be waiting to see what develops between the SEC and ACC involving Clemson & FSU and feel , at this time, Oregon and Washington aren't must haves , just programs to fill slots that really aren't necessary for now.
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SEC isnāt interested in Clemson & FSU. Call me a liar. Sure, those schools are interested. And the GOR thing kinda throws a monkey wrench in the whole āraiding the ACCā thing. SEC wants to expand its footprint like they did with TX/OK so if ACC raid was feasible maybe UNC & Miami ( South FL )
If I'm Arizona State, Arizona, Utah and Colorado, am I happier in the ten-team Pac 12 (maybe the two best MWC schools are added), or in the new Big 12? I don't think the new Big 12 is slam dunk by any means. The conference is littered with schools that aren't #1 or #2 in their own states. The only states where the Big 12 has the top school are Kansas and West Virginia, and second-best in Oklahoma, Iowa and Ohio. I'll call BYU #2 in Utah. Third best in Texas, 4th in Florida.
what will make you right is if the PAC commissioner can get the type of media rights deal that is just as good or close to what the Big 12 can offer them
Keeping Oregon and Washington will help get a better deal than replacing them along with the need to replace UCLA & USC
I think the B12 has power because theyāre unwanted and have stability and unity due to that fact.
That being said the 6 PAC schools that have options can be patient. As far as theyāre concerned what really changes for them if they wait. What do they miss out on if they wait? Iād guess nothing. Waiting allows Oregon/Wash to see if they B10 calls. Waiting for the other 4 gives them a chance to stay in likely their preferred conference. Like Iāve always said, thereās inertia there that has to be overcome. If Oregon/Wash leave will the option of the B12 still not be there for them? I think it would be still.
I think this is the question. Is the B12 with those 4 schools worth appreciably more than the PAC 10 as it is now? Iād guess itās a wash. Estimate for the PAC12ās new deal was about 500M and now 40% is gone with UCLA/USC. So 300M divided by 10 schools is about 30M per school. Will the B12 number with those 4 schools be much more than that? I tend to think no.
Last year the PAC12 couldāve been a predator and that opportunity was lost. However it doesnāt necessarily mean they have to be prey immediately. It could still be prey but doesnāt mean right now and they probably can afford to wait and see.
Wonāt Oregon/Washington lower the expected per school payout? Say what you want about us, we earn our keep. No freeloaders 
.
.There is only one school that the B1G will take right now - unfortunately it is ND. I hate that program.
The USC and UCLA announcement took all the pressure off the B1G to make any quick additions.