Big 12 Expansion

[columbiadawg2]

Saw the thread on the PAC 12 not expanding which should save the Big 12 and wanted to see what everyone thought on who they should/will pursue. My guess is they'll add 4 teams but could see that going up to 14. Here's who I would/think they'll pursue. What say ye?

My for sure invites are:
UCF
Cincinnati
Houston
Boise State

2nd tier:
San Diego State
SMU
Memphis
South Florida

 

[IPMdawg]

I like Memphis in there better than Boise. Keeps the conference in 2 time zones and can get Fred Smith to throw in some big FedEx sponsorships. Plus Memphis basketball would be a good rival to Kansas.

 

[00Dawg]

If I’m them….

I’m not going to let BYU tell me no. Then I’m working these guys until I get to 16:
Houston
Boise St.
Memphis
Cincy (some recency bias here)
UCF
USF
Colorado State
UNLV

Fall back choices:
USAFA
SMU
San Diego State


Having biannual road trips to Las Vegas, Orlando, and/or Tampa would be solid for marketing to fans.

 

[YoungB.sixpack]

Saw the thread on the PAC 12 not expanding which should save the Big 12 and wanted to see what everyone thought on who they should/will pursue. My guess is they'll add 4 teams but could see that going up to 14. Here's who I would/think they'll pursue. What say ye?

My for sure invites are:
UCF
Cincinnati
Houston
Boise State

2nd tier:
San Diego State
SMU
Memphis
South Florida

BYU - National Brand
UCF - Largest Enrollment in the country
Memphis - Close Regionally, Basketball Potential
Cincinnati - Decent football and Basketball, smack dab in the middle of Big10

 

[Smoked Toag]

I like Memphis in there better than Boise. Keeps the conference in 2 time zones and can get Fred Smith to throw in some big FedEx sponsorships. Plus Memphis basketball would be a good rival to Kansas.

In no way should we (or Ole Miss) want Memphis in the P5, even if it is the Big 12.

 

[Arthur2478]

My for sure invites are:
UCF
Cincinnati
Houston
Boise State

Apparently Houston has some super rich billionaire booster that has pissed off the powers that be at the Big12 and the remaining 8 schools. So much so that it's likely to eliminate Houston from serious consideration.

 

[columbiadawg2]

Forgot BYU, would definitely make them say no first.

 

[Duke Humphrey]

Tillman Feritta. Owner of Landry's/Golden Nuggets and Houston Rockets. From all accounts, he is more than a booster, he runs the athletic department and maybe university.

 

[columbiadawg2]

This guy? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tilman_Fertitta

 

[Drebin]

In no way should we (or Ole Miss) want Memphis in the P5, even if it is the Big 12.

Memphis would not be a threat to us (or Ole Miss) in the Big 12. Without OU and Texas, the Big 12 is basically the AAC anyway. Memphis played in a Cotton Bowl out of the AAC in 2019, but they didn't suddenly come down to Mississippi and start beating us head to head for linebackers and DL. Memphis does well by snatching recruits that we overlook. We have to do a better job of recruiting the Kenny Gainwells. But Memphis will never be a threat to us, beginning September 18 when we beat them by 30.

 

[johnson86-1]

Saw the thread on the PAC 12 not expanding which should save the Big 12 and wanted to see what everyone thought on who they should/will pursue. My guess is they'll add 4 teams but could see that going up to 14. Here's who I would/think they'll pursue. What say ye?

My for sure invites are:
UCF
Cincinnati
Houston
Boise State

2nd tier:
San Diego State
SMU
Memphis
South Florida

UCF makes the logistics hard. They're already hard with West Virginia I guess, but not sure I'd want to commit to be spread out like that. If you're going to add UCF, then you might as well add USF too. Then you can add Houston and Memphis or Cincy. At that point, you're business model is basically second rate schools in large urban areas. Not sure how much TV will pay for second tier teams, but you've got a presence in the Tampa, Miami, Houston, Dallas/Fortworth, and Cincinatti MSA markets at that point. You have the only Division I school in West Virginia, which certainly isn't a big market but is still 1.7M people. Still probably closer to the AAC than P4 at that point, but UCF, Houston, and USF all have the potential to turn into good programs if they were part of a major conference.

 

[Smoked Toag]

Memphis would not be a threat to us (or Ole Miss) in the Big 12. Without OU and Texas, the Big 12 is basically the AAC anyway. Memphis played in a Cotton Bowl out of the AAC in 2019, but they didn't suddenly come down to Mississippi and start beating us head to head for linebackers and DL. Memphis does well by snatching recruits that we overlook. We have to do a better job of recruiting the Kenny Gainwells. But Memphis will never be a threat to us, beginning September 18 when we beat them by 30.

I hope you're right, but the last thing we need is additional programs in this state (Memphis may as well be) competing at a high level and picking off recruits, even if it's our backup guys.

 

[Smoked Toag]

UCF makes the logistics hard. They're already hard with West Virginia I guess, but not sure I'd want to commit to be spread out like that. If you're going to add UCF, then you might as well add USF too. Then you can add Houston and Memphis or Cincy. At that point, you're business model is basically second rate schools in large urban areas. Not sure how much TV will pay for second tier teams, but you've got a presence in the Tampa, Miami, Houston, Dallas/Fortworth, and Cincinatti MSA markets at that point. You have the only Division I school in West Virginia, which certainly isn't a big market but is still 1.7M people. Still probably closer to the AAC than P4 at that point, but UCF, Houston, and USF all have the potential to turn into good programs if they were part of a major conference.

Most all the media is admitting that BYU is #1, then Boise State is #2. So now it's just about what happens beyond that. At this point, with those two, logistics go out the window. I would imagine UCF is #3. I might go Colorado State, SMU or UNLV before I went Cincinnati, Houston or Memphis. Stay away from those city-commuter schools. I know Boise is one of them but they are a step ahead as far as branding.

 

[patdog]

Whether they continue to call it a P5 or not, the P5 is over. There's a pretty clear hierarchy in college football with the addition of Texas & Oklahoma.

Level 1 - SEC
Level 2 - Big 10, ACC and PAC 12, in that order
Level 3 - Big 12 (assuming it survives and adds 4-8 AAC/MWC/BYU schools)
Level 4 - the old G5

 

[patdog]

Even without him, the Texas schools aren't going to want to add another in-state school to the mix.

 

[johnson86-1]

Most all the media is admitting that BYU is #1, then Boise State is #2. So now it's just about what happens beyond that. At this point, with those two, logistics go out the window. I would imagine UCF is #3. I might go Colorado State, SMU or UNLV before I went Cincinnati, Houston or Memphis. Stay away from those city-commuter schools. I know Boise is one of them but they are a step ahead as far as branding.

BYU I get; it makes the most sense. But Boise I really don't. The entire state has 1.7M people and they don't to my knowledge care about college sports. And a lot of their recent growth is from california transplants that aren't going to care about Boise state either. And if they start playing even Big 12 leftovers consistently, I am guessing their ten win seasons will disappear and they really won't have any appeal.

 

[Go Budaw]

Whether they continue to call it a P5 or not, the P5 is over. There's a pretty clear hierarchy in college football with the addition of Texas & Oklahoma.

Level 1 - SEC
Level 2 - Big 10, ACC and PAC 12, in that order
Level 3 - Big 12 (assuming it survives and adds 4-8 AAC/MWC/BYU schools)
Level 4 - the old G5

I would put the ACC well above the B1G in Tier 2. The B1G has just two national titles in the 23 years of the natty being decided on the field. Only 5 of the 28 CFP teams have have from the B1G. Current ACC has 5 natties and just one fewer CFP appearances than the SEC over that same time period.

 

[natchezdawg]

Mike Bianchi is going to have a damn cow if...

the powerhouse that is UCF does not land in a Power 5 conference when all this shakes out...

 

[patdog]

Yeah. BYU and Boise looked like major targets a few years ago too and the Big 12 wound up with West Virginia. One thing to remember in all this is the media is just guessing like everyone else. They don't know anything. They were completely blindsided by WVU to the Big 12, Texas & Okie to the SEC, and most every other realignment move that's happened. These thing are done behind closed doors and it's not like the conference commissioners are calling the media and saying "let me tell you our gameplan".

 

[patdog]

You could make good arguments for either as #1 or #2, it's pretty close. I went with the overall wealth of the Big 10 and the much better TV deal. But I can't really disagree with you either. The real gap is between those two and the PAC-12, I almost added another tier just for them.

 

[patdog]

Between that and them making such a big deal out of claiming a national championship a few years ago, I kind of want to see this happen.

 

[karlchilders.sixpack]

BYU,

I think the biggest knock on them, is they refuse to play any sports on Sundays.

(among other things).

Have not heard that, that has changed.

 

[Cooterpoot]

I don't see many teams in the American rushing to get in the Big 12. Houston and SMU would. That league is shot.
TV contract will be nothing. The league has always been dysfunctional. They're headed G5 or combining with multiple conferences IMO.

 

[Drebin]

I don't see many teams in the American rushing to get in the Big 12. Houston and SMU would. That league is shot.
TV contract will be nothing. The league has always been dysfunctional. They're headed G5 or combining with multiple conferences IMO.

Memphis would give their left nut for a Big 12 invitation. It's their stated goal as an athletic department....to get into a major conference. They achieved this for five minutes with the Big East before that blew up on them.

 

[Dawgg]

Boise State is NOT a top tier team nor should they be a potential target. Their best chance to move up came during the Chris Petersen run in the mid to late 2000's. There are only 1.7 Million people in Idaho and it's disparately located. Once your bar is Boise State, then you've conceded that you're a G5 league.

For sure invites should be BYU and the 'Metro' AAC Schools:
BYU
Houston
Memphis
Cincinnati

BYU is a national brand. The other 3 are in metro areas close to existing Big 12 teams. Having Kansas, Memphis, Baylor, Cincinnati, and Houston together would make the Big 12 the premier men's basketball league in the country.

Second Tier should be SMU and the directional Florida AAC Schools:
UCF
USF
SMU

I would have put UCF and/or USF in the top tier, but their location is so far away from the other Big 12 schools, that the travel burden for non-revenue sports is going to be a beast. I think both would be good additions financially, but I don't know if either moves the needle enough to justify the additional cost.

SMU would be the next alternate if a deal with Houston can't be made. The main reason I would choose Houston over SMU is that you already have TCU (and to an extent, Baylor) in the DFW metroplex, but with A&M gone and Texas leaving, there is no Big 12 presence in Texas south of Waco, which seems kind of crazy when I type it out.

Third tier should be the Mountain West and maybe Rice:
UNLV
San Diego State
Colorado State
Rice

Mountain and Pacific Time Zones are a ratings killer and I think if you have to dip past the AAC to either Mountain West or Conference USA, it would be a death knell for the Big 12's credibility as a "Power" conference, but UNLV could be a program on the rise. They play in the Raiders' new Allegiant Stadium and Las Vegas has almost overnight become a sports destination, adding an NHL, WNBA, and NFL team in the past 4 years. They also host the NBA's Summer League with indications they're next in line for an NBA franchise. Having a member school in that location could be an alluring thought in the near future. The others are just backfill located in/near metro areas (San Diego, Denver, Houston).

 

[Maroon Eagle]

Agreed.

Memphis, UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston would be the top of my list.

Fifth choice would be SMU.

 

[Dawgg]

Even without him, the Texas schools aren't going to want to add another in-state school to the mix.

At this point, I think Texas Tech, Baylor, and TCU are desperate enough to bring in Houston if it helps them save their status as a Power 5 school. Also, Houston is far enough away from those 3 that it wouldn't affect them from a recruiting standpoint more than a drop to G5 would.

 

[Smoked Toag]

I don't see many teams in the American rushing to get in the Big 12. Houston and SMU would. That league is shot.
TV contract will be nothing. The league has always been dysfunctional. They're headed G5 or combining with multiple conferences IMO.

You're nuts. Associating with Texas Tech, TCU, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State and West Virginia carries a TON of weight for any G5 team. Those are all accepted P5-level teams, versus Commuter School U footprint in the AAC.

The real question is whether the Big 12 should consider ANY of the AAC, outside of UCF. Normally I really wouldn't consider them but they do have a little history, an on-campus stadium, a prime location, and a huge enrollment. Cincinnati and Houston are the only other semi-possibles. Memphis wouldn't even be on my radar. Maybe East Carolina.

 

[Go Budaw]

You could make good arguments for either as #1 or #2, it's pretty close. I went with the overall wealth of the Big 10 and the much better TV deal. But I can't really disagree with you either. The real gap is between those two and the PAC-12, I almost added another tier just for them.

Yeah, if you’re looking at overall wealth and TV contracts as a major criteria, then the B1G is right up there with the SEC. I didn’t really consider that at all. Just looking strictly at the strength of the teams on the field.

 

[Cooterpoot]

Memphis would give their left nut for a Big 12 invitation. It's their stated goal as an athletic department....to get into a major conference. They achieved this for five minutes with the Big East before that blew up on them.

It's not going to be a major conference anymore. That's the problem. They wouldn't be upgrading. Got a better shot at the playoffs where they are.

 

[o_1984Dawg]

The only thing the Big 12 has going for it is that it's the conference of Texas and the Southern Great Plains. It should lean into that. And it needs stability. Get schools that somewhat fit the regional identity and that won't bolt for another conference at the first chance.

They have no business adding a Florida school. They need to be looking at Houston, SMU, Colorado State, Wyoming, Tulsa, and Air Force. Maybe Boise, Memphis, Cincy, BYU where the football profile is good and the geographic fit isn't terrible.

 

[Smoked Toag]

The only thing the Big 12 has going for it is that it's the conference of Texas and the Southern Great Plains. It should lean into that. And it needs stability. Get schools that somewhat fit the regional identity and that won't bolt for another conference at the first chance.

They have no business adding a Florida school. They need to be looking at Houston, SMU, Colorado State, Wyoming, Tulsa, and Air Force. Maybe Boise, Memphis, Cincy, BYU where the football profile is good and the geographic fit isn't terrible.

I tend to agree with this. I think we all know West Virginia is gone if they get a chance. I thought earlier about getting that 'Texas footprint'. SMU, Houston, maybe even Rice. Get as much TX influence as possible. And yeah, BYU and Colorado State.

 

[Dawgg]

It's not going to be a major conference anymore. That's the problem. They wouldn't be upgrading. Got a better shot at the playoffs where they are.

For the next 4-5 years, as long as it remains intact, the Big 12 still has contracts with the Sugar Bowl/NY6 and the CFP. If the remaining 8 Big 12 teams extend an invitation to one of the AAC teams and that team joins the Big 12 next season, that gives them 3-4 years of access to the Big 12's contracted spot in the NY6 or CFP.

If UCF or Memphis is the undefeated Big 12 Champion in 2024, it's going to be a hell of a lot harder to keep them out of the playoff than it was when they were in AAC.
If they're a 1 loss Big 12 Champion, they're at least guaranteed to make a New Year's 6. They aren't guaranteed that as a 1 loss (or even undefeated) AAC Champion, since the Group of 5 collectively only gets 1 NY6 spot, so they could lose out to an undefeated (or 1 loss) Conference USA, Mountain West, Sun Belt, or MAC champion.

 

[Smoked Toag]

You could make good arguments for either as #1 or #2, it's pretty close. I went with the overall wealth of the Big 10 and the much better TV deal. But I can't really disagree with you either. The real gap is between those two and the PAC-12, I almost added another tier just for them.

You answer this by asking 'who could pluck whom'? Would it be easier for the B1G to take Georgia Tech and North Carolina (solid mid-level ACC brands), or easier for the ACC to grab Rutgers and Maryland (low end of the B1G)?

The answer to this is easy. You are correct that the B1G is ahead of the ACC. Solidly.

The Pac-12 is hard to quantify because of the extreme geography.

 

[Go Budaw]

The only thing the Big 12 has going for it is that it's the conference of Texas and the Southern Great Plains. It should lean into that. And it needs stability. Get schools that somewhat fit the regional identity and that won't bolt for another conference at the first chance.

They have no business adding a Florida school. They need to be looking at Houston, SMU, Colorado State, Wyoming, Tulsa, and Air Force. Maybe Boise, Memphis, Cincy, BYU where the football profile is good and the geographic fit isn't terrible.

Don’t forget it’s longstanding regional roots in Appalachian coal country. The historic rivalry between Texas Tech and West Virginia is what college football is all about. Two bitter rivals separated by a mere 1,467.5 miles of highway...those two just don’t like each other.

 

[Dawgg]

You answer this by asking 'who could pluck whom'? Would it be easier for the B1G to take Georgia Tech and North Carolina (solid mid-level ACC brands), or easier for the ACC to grab Rutgers and Maryland (low end of the B1G)?

The answer to this is easy. You are correct that the B1G is ahead of the ACC. Solidly.

The Pac-12 is hard to quantify because of the extreme geography.

This one kind of answered itself since the B1G took Maryland away from the ACC 7 years ago.

 

[Go Budaw]

You answer this by asking 'who could pluck whom'?

Never had you pegged as a Reunion resident, Goat.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

I disagree with the mountain/pacific time being a killer. You would rather play late than the same time as good matchups in the SEC, ACC, and B1G. Just think of how many times you have passed out watching Boise State and the blue puke turf.

It's all about eyeballs, not media markets. BYU and Boise State are the best draws in the group of 5. They suffer by having to play crappy teams more than at crappy times.

Since 2020 was a **** show, look at some of these ratings from 2019. Boise State drawing a lot more viewers than Big P5 programs on the same network, partly because they have no other competition.


Marshall-Boise State 50% more than UGA and 100% more than Aub non conference games all on ESPN2.
View attachment 21482

Wyoming and Boise State beating K-State and the mighty Longhorns on the same network.
View attachment 21483

How about Boise State and Hawaii out drawing Ole Miss vs Mizzou SEC conference game?
View attachment 21484


If the Big 12 had it's pick of any 4 G5 teams... BYU, Boise State, Cincinnati, and UCF should be the 4. BYU and Boise State already have a little rivalry going.

BYU is probably best available because of the LDS connection. Boise State is a good brand in college football. Have been for a long time. Draw lots of eyes of their own. Cincinnati and UCF have the advantage of better competition week in and week out over the last few years and are better programs right now than Boise State and BYU.

 

[Dawgg]

Don’t forget it’s longstanding regional roots in Appalachian coal country. The historic rivalry between Texas Tech and West Virginia is what college football is all about. Two bitter rivals separated by a mere 1,467.5 miles of highway...those two just don’t like each other.

If they add BYU and UCF, it will be a 2,300 mile 34 hour car ride or a 4 hour plane ride to see Mormons vs Morons annually.

 

[GloryDawg]

Whether they continue to call it a P5 or not, the P5 is over. There's a pretty clear hierarchy in college football with the addition of Texas & Oklahoma.

Level 1 - SEC
Level 2 - Big 10, ACC and PAC 12, in that order
Level 3 - Big 12 (assuming it survives and adds 4-8 AAC/MWC/BYU schools)
Level 4 - the old G5

The G5's would be smart at this time is to set themselves apart, set up own National Championship and negotiate tv contracts.