Bednar starting against Texas
- Thread starter MSUDC11
- Start date
sounds about right. But getting that first game in the win column and into the winners bracket is pretty important. Who comes out of the pen?
i think if we're tied or ahead we should go with Harding. Do everything possible to go 2-0
Situational relief. If we are up one bring Sims in in the 7th. If up by 6 spread it out. If we are down by 6 save him for game 2. It all just depends on how its going
Assuming the game stays tight, the plan will be Bednar for 4-5 innings, Preston for 1-2 innings, and Sims for 3, maybe even 3+ innings.
The plan for Tuesday, if we have beaten Texas, would then be MacLeod, Harding, and Sims. I think we will hold back using Harding out of the pen for Game 2. If we are right in the game fighting to go 2-0, we will roll the dice and use Harding for 2-3 innings to get us back to Sims. If we are way behind, or we’ve lost Game 1, Harding is getting held back for Game 3.
As I’ve been telling you all for weeks, Sims’ workload is now going up, just as you saw in the Super. Lemonis has been keeping him well rested for just this moment while Kopps’ overworked arm is home resting during the CWS. In theory, if we were to run the table in Omaha, Sims is going to potentially pitch 3+ innings in 5 out of our 6 games (Sunday, Tuesday, Friday, Monday, Wednesday). He won’t pitch in all of those if games are blowouts in either direction, but if we need him, he will pitch often.
The plan for Tuesday, if we have beaten Texas, would then be MacLeod, Harding, and Sims. I think we will hold back using Harding out of the pen for Game 2. If we are right in the game fighting to go 2-0, we will roll the dice and use Harding for 2-3 innings to get us back to Sims. If we are way behind, or we’ve lost Game 1, Harding is getting held back for Game 3.
As I’ve been telling you all for weeks, Sims’ workload is now going up, just as you saw in the Super. Lemonis has been keeping him well rested for just this moment while Kopps’ overworked arm is home resting during the CWS. In theory, if we were to run the table in Omaha, Sims is going to potentially pitch 3+ innings in 5 out of our 6 games (Sunday, Tuesday, Friday, Monday, Wednesday). He won’t pitch in all of those if games are blowouts in either direction, but if we need him, he will pitch often.
I would only go to Harding if Bednar can’t give you at least 5 innings. Ideally I bet they would love 7 innings from Bednar and 2 from Sims. But if they can get 5 or 6 from Willy B then my guess is they’d probably go to Johnson for an inning or two before Sims.
One other thing that will be different for Sims in the postseason….you may see him while we are behind. If we are down a run in the 7th, we are going to roll the dice, bring Sims in, and hope our offense can put a run or two in the board. You just can’t concede close games in Omaha. You’ve got to go all out to win unless it’s one of the catbird seats games (Game 3 if you are 2-0 and Game 2 of the Finals if you are 1-0).
The problem with your theory on Sims is that you don't just suddenly ramp up usage with a guy. If he is going to carry a heavier workload, he has to be stretched out to that point. For all the griping about Nikhazy or Kopps' workload, the reality is that they've been throwing a lot of pitches all year so it wasn't a huge ask for them - they were already extended. With Sims, you can't take a guy who threw 30-50 pitches max on a weekend and suddenly start throwing him 80-100 pitches. It just doesn't work that way, and he won't be the same pitcher. That's why some of us were asking for him to be used more as the season went along, because it would help extend him for the postseason.
If Bednar is rolling, then sure. But I’ve seen little evidence Bednar can give us 6-7 quality innings against elite teams. If he can give us 5, he will have more than done his job.
He will throw less bullpen days in Omaha to make up for some of that. We will see if the season plan Lemonis has used pays off. But you’re going to see more Sims. And I suspect he won’t pitch in EVERY single one of those games I listed just because of the situation of the game. He’s not going in with a 5 run lead or 5 run deficit. But he will pitch a lot more.
This is 100% correct. If you beat Texas and are winning or tied in the middle innings of Game 2, then it’s all hands on deck to win it, including Houston Harding. Damn your Game 3 pitching plans.
I don't think Texas is quite near the offensive team that Notre Dame was. I don't think they score a ton of runs; at least the few times I've watched them it didn't look like it.
I like that plan and definitely think that’s how we will/should play it to get to 1-0, which is most important. My only heartburn is that Macleod looked a heck of a lot better versus Texas (4 IP, 1 ER, 7 SO) early in the year than he did against Tennessee (4 IP, 5 ER, 4 SO) in the SEC tourney. That is assuming Tennessee would be our game 2 opponent if we win Game 1, but they are hot. It’s a whole different situation, but I would have arms ready to roll in Game 2 esp under those circumstances.
I don't think he's going to throw 3-4 innings every game like Kopps would have done if Arkansas was in Omaha, but he should be fine for an inning or two in just about every game and the occasional 3-4 inning stint.
He threw 84 pitches and 6 innings in the span of 3 days against Notre Dame, and his only blemish was the Kavadas moonshot, which came about midway through his outing and then he settled down after that. That's probably the max usage we would see from him in a given situation and I feel like he's proven he can handle that without it being a total mess.
And frankly you can get to the championship series without having to majorly overuse him. Heck if we stay in the winner's bracket we will only play 3 games in the span of 6 days.
Correct, and they can be really strikeout prone at times, which makes me think this may be a good matchup for us. Generally speaking would say we are a better hitting team than Texas.
Their strength as a team is very much in their pitching, one of the best all-around staffs in the country. The one thing I'm not sure they have is a Sims-caliber arm on the back end. But their starting pitching has been excellent all year.
MacLeod started against them in February so this is no shocker. We will throw anyone against them to win with the way the CWS format is spread out. We need offense against their guy.
We both have similar overall numbers:
Batting average
MSU - .282
Texas - .281
Slugging
MSU - .449
Texas - .447
HRs
MSU - 70
Texas - 63
They have three players with 10 or more HRs (none more than 12). We have five with 10 or more.
They strike out a lot more than we have (516 vs 386). But they’ve also walked a lot more than us (355 vs 271).
We only have one player with more than 10 stolen bases (James with 18 ). They have two (one with 17 and one with 39 - yes, 39).
Seriously.
To anyone that asked, I'd say: "I'm not sure. Currently, I'm still considering every pitcher on our staff. If you were me, who would you start?"