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Baylor making a case for the CFP

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Go Budaw

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Aug 22, 2012
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Straight up dominating OSU.

Fivethirtyeight forecasts that they shoot all the way up to the #5 spot with just a win (not considering a blowout), only needing a Cincy loss, favorable SECCG loss (a blowout either direction), or Michigan loss to lock up a spot and well in the conversation to get in even without one of those happening.
 
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TimberBeast

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Aug 23, 2012
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I think it’s more Oklahoma State making a case that they should not be in the playoffs. Watching this I’m wondering how the hell they’re number 5.
 
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TimberBeast

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Aug 23, 2012
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57stratdawg said:
They have to be ahead of Notre Dame.
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I’ve never taken Notre Dame’s ranking seriously. It’s automatic and BS every year. Neither they or Cincinnati should be in the playoffs, I think Bama would probably kill either of them.
 
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Go Budaw

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Aug 22, 2012
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57stratdawg said:
They have to be ahead of Notre Dame.
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Absolutely. ND and Cincinnati are easily the weakest teams by both the eye test and schedule strength, and neither has an opportunity to really move the needle much on their resume today.
 
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Go Budaw

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TimberBeast said:
I’ve never taken Notre Dame’s ranking seriously. It’s automatic and BS every year. Neither they or Cincinnati should be in the playoffs, I think Bama would probably kill either of them.
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Not just Bama. Ok State, Baylor, Michigan, UGA, and probably even Ohio State, Ole Miss, snd Iowa would all beat them senseless.
 
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patdog

Heisman
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No way a 2-loss Big 12 team is moving past Notre Dame. Nor should they.
 
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Go Budaw

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Just an abysmal call on that intentional grounding. Was way outside the tackle box, past line of sceimmage, AND a receiver in the area.
 
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Go Budaw

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Aug 22, 2012
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Quincy A. Wagstaff said:
Are you suggesting that Alabama could beat Georgia so bad that Georgia gets left out? I think Georgia is in no matter what.
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Absolutely. If UGA gets beat by say, 4 TD’s, their case becomes quite shaky if Michigan and Cincy win…and even moreso if Ok State comes back against Baylor.

Here is the 538 forecast under those circumstances, which only considers W/L results and not margin of victory. Obviously if UGA gets blown out, it makes it even worse for them.

View attachment 23180
 
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patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
59,829
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Georgia is 100% in. Even if they lose by 50. They won’t lose though.
 
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patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
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Seriously? 538 has had several really bad misses over the years. Georgia is in.
 
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Go Budaw

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patdog said:
Seriously? 538 has had several really bad misses over the years. Georgia is in.
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Nobody is in yet. What has UGA done to warrant overlooking a blowout loss, no Top 20 wins, and no conference championship? Their resume right now isn’t nearly what people think it is.
 
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PirateDawg

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Alabama will be in with a win. Who did UGA beat during the season other than weak East teams?
 
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Quincy A. Wagstaff

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In that scenario the debate is between Georgia and Cincinnati. The first SEC team with fewer than 2 losses (in a full season) to not make the CFP is not going to lose their spot to a G5 team.
 
Jeffreauxdawg

Jeffreauxdawg

All-American
Dec 15, 2017
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This.^^ The most likely scenario keeping Georgia out of the CFP this season is an invitation to the NFL Playoffs.
 
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hdogg

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Nov 21, 2014
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Great game, crazy game.
I'm all for playoff chaos... as long as I don't have to watch bama in it.
 
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MSUDC11

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That paves the way for either Notre Dame or two SEC teams getting in, depending on what happens in Atlanta.

No freaking clue what they do if Michigan and Cincinnati both lose.
 
11thEagleFan

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Is there a doomsday scenario where Ole Miss gets in? I would think Ohio State would get the nod but after Oregon getting punked so bad in a 2 week span and Michigan clobbering OSU, I don’t know.
 
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hdogg

Senior
Nov 21, 2014
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Go Budaw said:
Absolutely. ND and Cincinnati are easily the weakest teams by both the eye test and schedule strength, and neither has an opportunity to really move the needle much on their resume today.
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Notre dame has proven that they can get killed in the playoff game. And they lost to Cincinnati. I'd much rather see a new team in the playoff. maybe it's a beatdown, but it's a different beatdown.
And buk fama.
 
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Go Budaw

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Aug 22, 2012
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Quincy A. Wagstaff said:
In that scenario the debate is between Georgia and Cincinnati. The first SEC team with fewer than 2 losses (in a full season) to not make the CFP is not going to lose their spot to a G5 team.
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There’s never been a one loss SEC make the CFP where the one loss was a total blowout. That is the context you are missing. You’re also talking about UGA getting blown out by Bama, knocking them down to the #4, then trotting them right back out against Bama again….just so we’re clear.
 
Bulldog from Birth

Bulldog from Birth

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There is no scenario where Ole Miss gets in. Georgia, Bama, the Big 10
Champ, Baylor, and Notre Dame are all locks to finish ahead of Ole Miss.

11thEagleFan said:
Is there a doomsday scenario where Ole Miss gets in? I would think Ohio State would get the nod but after Oregon getting punked so bad in a 2 week span and Michigan clobbering OSU, I don’t know.
Click to expand...
 
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UpTheMiddlex3Punt

All-Conference
May 28, 2007
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I think the most interesting payoff would be UGA, Michigan, ND, and Baylor. Just need a Cincinnati loss to help that happen.
 
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