B1G Seeding Simulations

[Mr. Magoo1]

Not sure if anyone posted this but as of now, here are our tournament seeding odds:

7 Seed - 2.2%
8 Seed - 5.2%
9 Seed - 12.3%
10 Seed - 42.4%
11 Seed - 21.3%
12 Seed - 11.3%
13 Seed - 4.6%
14 Seed - 0.7%

Chances certainly are that we are out of the basement and out of Wednesday's games. I believe the 10 would play the 7 Seed and Ohio State has a 60.7% chance of getting the 7. I like our match-up against Ohio State if form holds true.

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

Are we going to be picked last again in next year's B1G media day poll? Logically, no, but I wouldn't be surprised.

 

[RUby RED]

Are we going to be picked last again in next year's B1G media day poll? Logically, no, but I wouldn't be surprised.

Have to imagine it’ll be either Northwestern or Penn State if Stevens leaves. But you’re right, I wouldn’t put it past the media to slight us again

 

[RUBigFrank]

viewed one way:

62.1% chance of being 10 or better

37.9% chance being 11-14

 

[Mr. Magoo1]

Have to imagine it’ll be either Northwestern or Penn State if Stevens leaves. But you’re right, I wouldn’t put it past the media to slight us again

Could be Nebraska for last next year. They lose Palmer, Watson, and Copeland (who is injured), and they are playing terribly right now without any depth. Miles might get fired which could hurt recruiting as well. For the first time since joining the B1G, it definitely won't be us picked for last.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I see us at 11th ahead of nebraska and northwestern and PSU.

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

Not sure if anyone posted this but as of now, here are our tournament seeding odds:

7 Seed - 2.2%
8 Seed - 5.2%
9 Seed - 12.3%
10 Seed - 42.4%
11 Seed - 21.3%
12 Seed - 11.3%
13 Seed - 4.6%
14 Seed - 0.7%

Chances certainly are that we are out of the basement and out of Wednesday's games. I believe the 10 would play the 7 Seed and Ohio State has a 60.7% chance of getting the 7. I like our match-up against Ohio State if form holds true.

if we finish 10th we likely get ohio state on Thursday with the winner likely to play one of purdue/michigan/msu on Friday

 

[knight82]

Are we going to be picked last again in next year's B1G media day poll? Logically, no, but I wouldn't be surprised.

One of the guys in the BTN studio Sunday night said he expects us to be in the higher echelon of the Big Ten next year

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I like the trajectory, but we need to respect what even a 10-10 B1G is supposed to look like.

We are 0 fer against winning teams in the B1G.

Our raw conference only data say we are #12 (both 12th in O and D)in the B1G. Now you can argue that if you take away 2 Eugeneless games things would be different.

 

[Knights 1212]

We have 2 more wins than Indiana. If we win at Iowa or home against Penn State I doubt they will catch us. They play Wisconsin & Michigan State at home and at Illinois. They could catch us but they need to win over some very good teams. Their game against Wisconsin tonight is huge.

 

[RUtrumpet92_rivals498139]

I see us at 11th ahead of nebraska and northwestern and PSU.

This is only possible if Indiana wins at least two more games than we do down the stretch.

Indiana schedule:
02/26/19 WISCONSIN 9:00 PM
03/02/19 MICHIGAN STATE 12:00 PM
03/07/19 at Illinois 8:00 PM
03/10/19 RUTGERS 12:00 PM

Rutgers schedule:
03/02/19 at Iowa 5:00 PM
03/06/19 PENN STATE 7:00 PM
03/10/19 at Indiana 12:00 PM

So do you think we lose out and Indiana beats us and maybe Illinois, or do you think we go 1-2 (beating PSU) and Indiana goes 3-1 against that schedule (probably by beating Wisconsin, Illnois, and us)? I don't see them winning three more. They are 1-12 in their last 13 league games.

 

[Upstream]

This is only possible if Indiana wins at least two more games than we do down the stretch.

Indiana schedule:
02/26/19 WISCONSIN 9:00 PM
03/02/19 MICHIGAN STATE 12:00 PM
03/07/19 at Illinois 8:00 PM
03/10/19 RUTGERS 12:00 PM

Rutgers schedule:
03/02/19 at Iowa 5:00 PM
03/06/19 PENN STATE 7:00 PM
03/10/19 at Indiana 12:00 PM

So do you think we lose out and Indiana beats us and maybe Illinois, or do you think we go 1-2 (beating PSU) and Indiana goes 3-1 against that schedule (probably by beating Wisconsin, Illnois, and us)? I don't see them winning three more. They are 1-12 in their last 13 league games.

I think he meant that he sees us as #11 in the pre-season B1G poll next year.

 

[dkostus]

This is only possible if Indiana wins at least two more games than we do down the stretch.

Indiana schedule:
02/26/19 WISCONSIN 9:00 PM
03/02/19 MICHIGAN STATE 12:00 PM
03/07/19 at Illinois 8:00 PM
03/10/19 RUTGERS 12:00 PM

Rutgers schedule:
03/02/19 at Iowa 5:00 PM
03/06/19 PENN STATE 7:00 PM
03/10/19 at Indiana 12:00 PM

So do you think we lose out and Indiana beats us and maybe Illinois, or do you think we go 1-2 (beating PSU) and Indiana goes 3-1 against that schedule (probably by beating Wisconsin, Illnois, and us)? I don't see them winning three more. They are 1-12 in their last 13 league games.

Think he meant for next year's media poll

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

This is only possible if Indiana wins at least two more games than we do down the stretch.

Indiana schedule:
02/26/19 WISCONSIN 9:00 PM
03/02/19 MICHIGAN STATE 12:00 PM
03/07/19 at Illinois 8:00 PM
03/10/19 RUTGERS 12:00 PM

Rutgers schedule:
03/02/19 at Iowa 5:00 PM
03/06/19 PENN STATE 7:00 PM
03/10/19 at Indiana 12:00 PM

So do you think we lose out and Indiana beats us and maybe Illinois, or do you think we go 1-2 (beating PSU) and Indiana goes 3-1 against that schedule (probably by beating Wisconsin, Illnois, and us)? I don't see them winning three more. They are 1-12 in their last 13 league games.

I was talking about pre season next year:basketball:

I totally see us wining 1 of the 2 road games and losing to Penn state.

 

[RUtrumpet92_rivals498139]

Okay that makes more sense. I lost that part of the conversation trying to read the thread quickly.

I will be disappointed if we finish 11th or lower next year, though. Because fan.

Edit to add: i just looked at the Gophers' situation and think we should be better than them next year. They have little quality depth now and have one 3* SF signed for this year. They lose Murphy, we lose Doorson. Bigger loss for them than us IMO. They really struggle on the road this year, we are making big strides in that area. Do they have injuries or transfers sitting out that will bring in more talent?

 

[RUEd]

Watch out for Illinois. If it stands today, they draw Minnesota first. Likely win. Then MSU, who they beat two weeks ago. They could go on a run. Just saying

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

Pre-season rankings are based on

A) recruiting,
B) the last memory of the team from the prior season
C) reputation.

It's gone away, but there were multiple comments in November/December and early January about how this roster needed Corey Sanders.....well, if Corey Sanders didn't leave early and was on this years team, after the MSG performance, it would have been very difficult to have RU picked last for this season.....but the 30 second soundbite, can't be about unknowns like Ron Harper, Shaq Carter, Myles Johnson, Peter Kiss and Mathis etc....

I do know this....before we talk about pre-season rankings, we need to know what mix of games are we playing in the B1G.....if it's home and home with MSU, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin and Maryland next year, I'm going to be more skeptical that we need a tougher OOC slate, vs home and home with PSU, Nebraska, Northwestern, Illinois and Minnesota.

RU is still in development phase and it still continues with Saturday at Iowa.....it's a road game, something we haven't played well enough of, until very recently.....I think there's a lot more to learn, even in these last 3 games and the B1G tournament, not just for RU, but across college basketball and especially the B1G.

And Mulcahy and Young absolutely must be impact players within the 9 -10 man rotation, to improve next year.....If RU finishes with an 8-12 record in the B1G this year, it will be very difficult to see any preseason rankings picking us lower than 11th....I would argue that we need to see what the entire recruiting landscape has been like in the last 2 cycles around the B1G, to see what teams are bringing in, but I don't think about preseason rankings as much as how each of the next batch of recruits, shapes this roster for the next 2 seasons. That stands out much more than anything else, it's still a talent/chemistry fit/work ethic that RU needs to maintain....landing the biggest name or highest ranked kid, makes headlines, but doesn't always equate to wins and being a good teammate, on gamedays.....

 

[Mr. Magoo1]

Okay that makes more sense. I lost that part of the conversation trying to read the thread quickly.

I will be disappointed if we finish 11th or lower next year, though. Because fan.

Edit to add: i just looked at the Gophers' situation and think we should be better than them next year. They have little quality depth now and have one 3* SF signed for this year. They lose Murphy, we lose Doorson. Bigger loss for them than us IMO. They really struggle on the road this year, we are making big strides in that area. Do they have injuries or transfers sitting out that will bring in more talent?

Coffey is back and their two freshman studs killed us. They also have a highly regraded kid with the crazy blonde hair that sat the bench behind Murphy. Also, their 3 star that they signed is a 4 star on some websites. They will still be very tough.

 

[RUtrumpet92_rivals498139]

We'll see how well Oturo can handle the post without Murphy drawing most of their opponents' attention and with one less experienced big man playing 30+ minutes per game.

Kalscheur was red hot against us and is over 42% from 3 on the season so that was not a total fluke.

Omersa (crazy blond hair guy) may be highly regarded but he's done almost nothing in B1G play this year. Appeared in ten games, played a total of 49 minutes, scored a total of 3 pts. He hasn't scored in his last ten games.

They've got seven in the rotation averaging 14+ minutes per game. We've got nine, ten if you push that down to Thiam at 12.8 minutes per game.

I'm not saying that we're going to be miles ahead of them next year but I sure wouldn't trade our roster for theirs in 2019-20, either.

 

[Mr. Magoo1]

We'll see how well Oturo can handle the post without Murphy drawing most of their opponents' attention and with one less experienced big man playing 30+ minutes per game.

Kalscheur was red hot against us and is over 42% from 3 on the season so that was not a total fluke.

Omersa (crazy blond hair guy) may be highly regarded but he's done almost nothing in B1G play this year. Appeared in ten games, played a total of 49 minutes, scored a total of 3 pts. He hasn't scored in his last ten games.

They've got seven in the rotation averaging 14+ minutes per game. We've got nine, ten if you push that down to Thiam at 12.8 minutes per game.

I'm not saying that we're going to be miles ahead of them next year but I sure wouldn't trade our roster for theirs in 2019-20, either.

I’m thinking we should be deeper than them.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Minnesota has much more talent than us. Doesn’t mean they will be better.

 

[rsutton86]

We'll see how well Oturo can handle the post without Murphy drawing most of their opponents' attention and with one less experienced big man playing 30+ minutes per game.

Kalscheur was red hot against us and is over 42% from 3 on the season so that was not a total fluke.

Omersa (crazy blond hair guy) may be highly regarded but he's done almost nothing in B1G play this year. Appeared in ten games, played a total of 49 minutes, scored a total of 3 pts. He hasn't scored in his last ten games.

They've got seven in the rotation averaging 14+ minutes per game. We've got nine, ten if you push that down to Thiam at 12.8 minutes per game.

I'm not saying that we're going to be miles ahead of them next year but I sure wouldn't trade our roster for theirs in 2019-20, either.

In addition to Murphy, they lose McBrayer (6’5” senior guard having a down year) and their 3rd player off of the bench this year (Stull) who has given them a few minutes a game.

I was surprised to see they only played 8 players on Sunday and their subs only played a total of 27 minutes.

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

I'll say Politi will really sell us next year.. picking us 5th or 6th with a trip to the NCAAAs.. just in hopes that anything we can actually do will be a disappointment he can enjoy it. And if he's "right".. can say he "called it". A win-win.

 

[knightfan7]

I was talking about pre season next year:basketball:

I totally see us wining 1 of the 2 road games and losing to Penn state.

PSU does seem to have righted the ship. Watchung them now you have to think "how did they lose so many games?"

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Even when they were 0-10 they had a high kenpom rating because their games were all close.