Any good stock tips?
- Thread starter HotMop
- Start date
I actually bought bitcoin just about an hour ago. I have been all cash in my crypto account since Feb 7th. Up 20% for the year in crypto and this trade was too good to pass up. Bought at the trendline support at $35.5k today. I will sell it if it goes more than 7% below the trendline and take my medicine, but the plan is to hold until it hits the top trendline at/around the $48-50k mark...
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The reason I plan on selling if it gets to that point is:
A. Its a 40% gain.
B. If it breaks through the top trendline, I don't mind buying back in above $53k or so.
C. If it gets rejected, that is confirmation of a bearish technical pattern called an ascending broadening wedge. Downside target would be $18k if that pattern played out by the book. And it’s the second bearish pattern that has picked that target as the destination. Not saying it will happen, but it’s just playing the odds like not hitting on 12 when the dealer has a 6 card showing in blackjack.
"Textbook" ascending broadening wedge, target is the distance between A-F down from the break through of the trendline.
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How BTC is looking right now on a daily chart...
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It's not a super reliable pattern. Over 50%, but the fact that it follows a head and shoulders pattern that is still technically in play until we get above $53k or so, makes me give it a little more respect.
To PB and Wagstaff... I am not bearish BTC. I am short term bullish buying off of this trendline. Once it gets to the top trendline, I am going to take a nice win. If it goes up from there. Great. If it comes back down I have locked in a sweet gain and I have plenty of losses in my stock portfolio to offset against it for tax purposes.
This is not investment advice. Notice my blackjack comparison. I know what I am doing/risking/etc. I suck at betting on sports, don't live anywhere near a casino, and seem to do pretty well at trading bitcoin of all things. Plan on taking the gains and flying my sister and law and her boys (12 & 14 and have grown up without a father) out in July for a 3 day whitewater rafting trip. If I get stopped out on this trade, I am still going to fly them out and do the rafting trip, I'll just have a lot less in the old crypto trading account after paying for their trip. Getting those boys that have never left Texas out here in the mountains and on the water for a few days is by far the best investment I will make this year.
I will let everyone know how it works out since I imagine you are all going to be on pins and needles waiting to find out. Most likely scenario since I bought is it breaks the bottom trendline now and stops me out at a 7% loss tomorrow.***
View attachment 24397
The reason I plan on selling if it gets to that point is:
A. Its a 40% gain.
B. If it breaks through the top trendline, I don't mind buying back in above $53k or so.
C. If it gets rejected, that is confirmation of a bearish technical pattern called an ascending broadening wedge. Downside target would be $18k if that pattern played out by the book. And it’s the second bearish pattern that has picked that target as the destination. Not saying it will happen, but it’s just playing the odds like not hitting on 12 when the dealer has a 6 card showing in blackjack.
"Textbook" ascending broadening wedge, target is the distance between A-F down from the break through of the trendline.
View attachment 24398
How BTC is looking right now on a daily chart...
View attachment 24399
It's not a super reliable pattern. Over 50%, but the fact that it follows a head and shoulders pattern that is still technically in play until we get above $53k or so, makes me give it a little more respect.
To PB and Wagstaff... I am not bearish BTC. I am short term bullish buying off of this trendline. Once it gets to the top trendline, I am going to take a nice win. If it goes up from there. Great. If it comes back down I have locked in a sweet gain and I have plenty of losses in my stock portfolio to offset against it for tax purposes.
This is not investment advice. Notice my blackjack comparison. I know what I am doing/risking/etc. I suck at betting on sports, don't live anywhere near a casino, and seem to do pretty well at trading bitcoin of all things. Plan on taking the gains and flying my sister and law and her boys (12 & 14 and have grown up without a father) out in July for a 3 day whitewater rafting trip. If I get stopped out on this trade, I am still going to fly them out and do the rafting trip, I'll just have a lot less in the old crypto trading account after paying for their trip. Getting those boys that have never left Texas out here in the mountains and on the water for a few days is by far the best investment I will make this year.
I will let everyone know how it works out since I imagine you are all going to be on pins and needles waiting to find out. Most likely scenario since I bought is it breaks the bottom trendline now and stops me out at a 7% loss tomorrow.***
With the volume in btc trades I have come around to trust TA more. Chain data is extremely bullish in nearly every sector bill the macro seems to rule. Crypto is still pegged to the market as a risk asset.
I’ve changed my strategy and no longer short term trade. I’m tired of paying ST CG taxes every year. Now I’m DCAing like hell in prep for the next halving. If the halving coincides with return to QE and rate cut in prep for the election then 400k is not crazy talk.
I am a long term investor and don’t try and time it. That being said, if I have cash, I try and find some sort of consumer staple like Clorox (that also pays a consistent dividend) that gets caught up in the selling, when it’s bottom line is unlikely to affected long term even by a recession.
man. I love run on sentences.
man. I love run on sentences.
I'm about to take a summer dip in KOLD. Natural gas prices are likely unsustainable at this level.
Just because they've been around forever doesn't mean they will continue. That dip that looks like a nice entry point might be a death throw. RIP Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and thousands of my 2007 dollars.
Technically it's only a "dip" aka a pullback if we're in an uptrend. In a downtrend it's more of a trap. Unless of course you get lucky and buy the bottom. I've never been that lucky.
You reminded me to RIP Worldcom and some of my 1999-2000 portfolio. I'm a slow learner... Are you people beginning to see the kind of people you are asking for investment advice from?!?
I think both Google and Amazon are both good buys. They both are doing a 20:1 split this summer, the split will allow investors who could not or did not want to invest at the higher price to buy. I think it will get bought up and the price get pushed back to 500 or above in the next 12 - 24 months.
I remember the people around the Jackson area who worked for WorldCom walking around pounding their chest that they work for WorldCom.
Long term I think you are right, however unless you are day-trading it I would wait until the Twitter buyout gets settled. Could still see a pull-back until its finalized and institutional investors are comfortable.
I’ve never heard of WorldCom lol
ETA: After a quick google search, geez what a disaster.
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I never worked for Worldcom, but I picked up the stock when it dropped to $5/share in what I thought was just part of an overarching market breakup with telecom. What Scott Sullivan reported on the balance sheet made $5 a solid value play. However, when the CFO lies on the balance sheet you get a quick lesson in how much faith you are putting corporate officers to be decent humans...
Toilet paper. It looks like it actually might be a viable option, no ****.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/should-you-stock-up-on-toilet-paper-stocks-2020-03-16
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/should-you-stock-up-on-toilet-paper-stocks-2020-03-16
I understood you only owned stock. I knew a few who did and they were really proud to be a employee. Their lives were devastated by the fall. Scott Sullivan was the only person who testified that he told Bernie what they were doing. He probably did but his explanation why they did it probably fooled him into thinking it was legal. Bernie didn't seem to be very smart.
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I think that Bernie had to be ultimately responsible because of position, but I honestly think that Sullivan was the real villain. Did he act that way because of non-sensical insistence from the top to hit impossible numbers? Who knows, but at some point he had to personally decide that he had no integrity. And he got away with it for testifying and handing the feds the villain they wanted.
I agree about Bernie and Sullivan. He was slick and a slick talker. He had the internal auditors believing that moving those expenses from that side of the balance sheet to the asset side was legal but in the end did the right thing.
If you’re holding NVIDIA, I’d recommend familiarizing yourself with what the ethereum “merge” is if not already. It’s basically the elephant in the room with their consumer GPU division. Might happen this summer (bad) or might get delayed again (good).
He is not saying either. He is referring to Ethereum reportedly working on changing from Proof of Work thereby reducing the number of mining machines that will need to be in existence. If that happens, Nvidia would inevitably incur lower demand for it's GPU cards and chips. So say some.
I don't know about all that other stuff . . . but I can agree with this part.
Being in the mountains does wonders for the soul.
My advice:
1) Don’t trust guys who’s first name is Bernie.
2) Don’t but Toilet Paper stock, buy Toilet Paper.
Note: #2 is inside information from someone who sells Toilet Paper by the truckloads.
1) Don’t trust guys who’s first name is Bernie.
2) Don’t but Toilet Paper stock, buy Toilet Paper.
Note: #2 is inside information from someone who sells Toilet Paper by the truckloads.
I’m getting an MBA on the other side of the country, and Worldcom came up in my accounting class last fall. I got to tell them what it was like living through that in Mississippi
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You want to remain focused on the stock's fundamentals. There's been a paradigm shift. You don't want to buy stocks that aren't making money. Their time has largely passed.
You want value stocks (those with cheaper valuation than the market on average. Typically you can look at a P/E ratio). You also want GARP: Growth at a reasonable price.
GARP stocks: AMD, GOOGL, AVGO, QCOM, LIN
Value: DVN, CVX, EOG, FCX, BAC, MS, CVS, PRU, AXP, SPG, NUE, CLF, MOS, BG, NTR, CSCO, WMT
All weather stocks: LLY, MCK, ABBV, JNJ, COST, PG, AZO, LHX, AAPL, MSFT, PG, PEP, SBAC, UNH, TMO, BJ
Hold your nose and buy and hold for long term: AMZN, NVDA, NOW, DIS, TSLA,
ETFs/Mutual Funds: VTV, VEIRX, RPZ, RPV, SPYD
Think they get hit on both sides. Decrease demand from miners coupled with potential competition from glut of used, cheaper GPUs hitting the secondary market from retiring miners cashing out. There’s a pretty robust resale market for GPUs on eBay and other places that has only increased in popularity over last two years with the pandemic shortages and constant MSRP hikes with every new generation.