Thread title is misleading but I believe we're seeing the slow decline of Alabama Football like we once saw with Nebraska. I firmly think their run is over and it started with getting blown out in the title game last year. Saturday's loss to LSU is just another step in that direction. To me, their loss in the national title game last year is of the same degree as our loss to Miami in 2001.
Alabama/Nebraska
- Thread starter Jhollenbeck41
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The size of shoes that next coach will have to fill after Saban leaves will be the same shoes Frank had to fill with Osborne.
I'd need more of a body of evidence. Them being one or two loss teams speaks more to the competition around them getting better rather than them declining, IMO. As long as Nick Saban is at the helm, I think they'll be fine. However, in his post game interview this past Saturday he looked old to me. Like, "this is wearing on me" old.
They lost big on the scoreboard to Clemson, but that was a pretty even game. The talent on their roster is off the charts. Multiple first round picks. Compare that with our 2002 roster.
Obviously a playoff level program yet, but I do agree, OP, that we are starting to see the "decline" of Bama's dynasty.
It always starts in recruiting and they are not winning "recruiting titles" anymore.
Nothing stays the same forever in college football and it always goes in cycles. How far Bama falls back is the great unkown.
Nick is 68 years old so he isn't going to be around much longer.
FSU's run ended. Nebraska's run ended. USCw's run ended. They always end eventually.
Right now I view Alabama as a program that is now living off of image, like we did with the 2001 season.
It always starts in recruiting and they are not winning "recruiting titles" anymore.
Nothing stays the same forever in college football and it always goes in cycles. How far Bama falls back is the great unkown.
Nick is 68 years old so he isn't going to be around much longer.
FSU's run ended. Nebraska's run ended. USCw's run ended. They always end eventually.
Right now I view Alabama as a program that is now living off of image, like we did with the 2001 season.
Until they start losing three games a year, then I say the decline is on, but I don't believe it's started yet. And who knows, the next coach just might keep them afloat for many years after Saban, it's not hard to sell Alabama football so I expect to see them top 5 for quite awhile!
I guess let me clarify a little bit, I'm not saying they'll fall into irrelevancy like we basically have but the absolute dominance they've shown the last 10 is on the decline in my opinion. They'll get recruits because of where they're located but it's going to take some kind of "presence" for the next head man to keep that juggernaut working. And without the right guy, that just doesn't happen. When I say decline for them, I mean consistent top 10-12, they'll always have the athletes to stay good enough for that. But then coaching has to match.
They’ve lost twice in 2 years...until they lose 3 or 4 regular season games this is a pointless topic.
This is dumb. Of course at some point their dynasty will end, but I don't think its happening yet. Lets not pretend that Nick Saban has magically turned from an all time great into a middle of the pack coach.
If we are only saying that a successful season is Alabama winning a NC then yeah they have been sucking it up. only 40% win percentage in the last 5 years.
If we are only saying that a successful season is Alabama winning a NC then yeah they have been sucking it up. only 40% win percentage in the last 5 years.
Recruiting class rankings for Alabama:
Of course, they could hire alumnus Mike Riley ....
- 2016 — 1st
- 2017 — 1st
- 2018 — 7th
- 2019 — 2nd
- 2020 — 4th
Of course, they could hire alumnus Mike Riley ....
Wait but don't atleast half the people on here claim that Frost has all of a sudden become a ****** player caller....?
I think he has made some questionable calls, sure. But its just silly to compare Frost to Saban at this point. Frost has been a HC for 3 1/2 years total. Though I do suppose anything is possible, however unlikely.
I get your point though.
They mismanaged that game last year and Clemson was on fire. Comparing their loss to the NU loss is way off. NU had no chance, Baja did. “Their run” is the greatest run in history; at some point it has to at least slow a bit, but to suggest they are about to take a huge nose dive ala NU is completely unsubstantiated and crazy.
I think they are having a similar year to what we had in '96. One of the top teams in the country, but clearly not top 3.
I think it'd be pretty hard for them to have a major drop off just based on recruiting alone.
Bama's recent classes:
2016 #1
2017 #1
2018 #7
2019 #2
Current class is at #4
Bama's recent classes:
2016 #1
2017 #1
2018 #7
2019 #2
Current class is at #4
All I said was decline, YOU said nose dive. They'll always be relevant in modern college football because of where they're located, but it's also pretty clear that they have flaws and are plenty beatable.
I appreciate your analyses, but we aren't seeing the same ratios, nor facts here.
Plenty said the same thing after ASU shut us out 16-0 in 1996. You know how history played out... at least thru the end of '99.
Single losses do not normally define a complete collapse. Given the way LSU and Bama played, I do not see a collapse; I see one team finding a way to win against an equal.
Bottom line: What you have seen this week is wishful thinking. It's highly doubtful that this is the last straw for 'Bama.
Also, this game had more in common with an old OU vs NU match of old.
I doubt Saban will insist that his shoes be filled by their running backs coach
A big difference between Alabama today and Nebraska of 1997 (When the announcement was made that Frank was going to get the HC Job), is that Saban has a huge coaching tree, TO did not. I highly doubt Alabama will make the same mistake Nebraska made and hand that job over to a long time assistant with no HC experience. Nebraska (probably) could have got anyone in 1997. Alabama WILL get someone proven, and I'd bet they start with going after the prized Alum Dabo. If that fails, then they have the Saban tree to look at.
What I see is a slow decline. Last year's title game showed it for me. Outmatched and outplayed, didn't look like the juggernaut anymore. That's why I compared it to 2001 vs. Miami. Outmatched and out played, we didn't look like the juggernaut anymore. No nose dive for Bama, just a slow decline while maybe 2 or 3 teams take their jabs for a little while, Clemson being one of the new juggernauts. That's all.
A better model would be when Pete Carroll left USC.
I don't think there's anything out there now that is comparable to Nebraska post Osborne because Osborne ran such a unique program and system. The system was essentially maintained through the Solich era, more on an Osborne late 70s level then a 90s level.
All teams rise and decline and rise again. The list of once powerful programs who are average at best now includes Nebraska, FSU, Miami, USC, and Texas. Oklahoma and Oregon are kind of fools gold too, playing in the B12 and P12.
Nebraska football was downgraded a bit under Solich, but was destroyed with the hiring of Peterson/Callahan in an attempt to change everything. We found out that Nebraska football was Osborne and his system the hard way, and it's never been the same.
Are you kidding me? True, their defense is not up to past Alabama teams due to youth and injuries. Offensively, they are as good as anyone in the country. I would not want to play them in the playoffs. Their recruiting classes continue to be ranked in the top 5 every year. I think what also hurt Bama this year is they didn't play anyone before LSU. Give LSU some credit, they are a very good team. Don't think you will see any drop off as long as Saban is around. FWIW, I am an OSU fan..
Very difficult (if not impossible) to maintain #1 recruiting classes year after year. At some point, recruits see that they may not get on the field for a few years because of the deep talent pool at Bama. So they find another top 10 program near home with an upcoming need/gap in talent...say Georgia, LSU, etc.
As long as they are pulling in top 5 classes year after year, Little Nicky will be competing for the national championship most every year.
As long as they are pulling in top 5 classes year after year, Little Nicky will be competing for the national championship most every year.
I think they have 7 true freshman playing...I would say that doesn't mean they are declining...but they have to deal with a lot of transfers and early draft picks. Imagine losing half of each class to transfer and leaving early for the NFL. Plus they had 7 or 8 new coaches last year. They are basically the Kentucky or Duke of College football...some years might be rough...and rough for them would be historically good for us..at least recently.
When any team is at or near the top, predicting a decline of any amount is fairly predicable over time. The old saying about being at the top with only one way to go.
People that say the mighty will eventually come down will eventually be right.
People that say the mighty will eventually come down will eventually be right.
Not really. Alabama could very easily still get into the playoff if they steamroll Auburn and Oregon looks lackluster in their remaining games. I have noticed that their defense is not as dominant this season, but their wide receiver corp is the best I've seen in a while.
This topic is dumb. Alabama probably had the best regular season of all time last year. Alabama and Clemson had to be among the best teams in college football history last year and both teams are just as good this year. Somehow though a couple other teams caught up to them in LSU and OSU. This has to be the best top 4 teams in the history of college football. I think any one of them would be national title favorites in most prior seasons.
As for the loss against LSU, Tua doesn't play well when he's hurt and that fumble near the goal line was huge where he just dropped the ball. Alabama's defense was surprisingly soft at times. A lot of that has to do with how good LSU's offense is, but the coaching turnover may be taking a toll. However Saban seems to get his teams to play better after a loss. If they make the playoffs I expect them to shore up the defense and I think they'll have the best odds to win no matter their seed.
As for the loss against LSU, Tua doesn't play well when he's hurt and that fumble near the goal line was huge where he just dropped the ball. Alabama's defense was surprisingly soft at times. A lot of that has to do with how good LSU's offense is, but the coaching turnover may be taking a toll. However Saban seems to get his teams to play better after a loss. If they make the playoffs I expect them to shore up the defense and I think they'll have the best odds to win no matter their seed.
Big Red followed up their loss with a 7-7 season and a recruiting class ranking of 39 with Solich.
Saban still with Alabama and will probably win no less than 11 games this season. 22-2 in their last 24 games. Another Top 5 recruiting class in the works. That's some serious signs of decline. Probably 4 first-round draft picks this upcoming draft, too.
If this is your definition of decline, I'd refrain from throwing things against the wall to see what sticks.