AI predictions

[bulldognation]

According to Grok:

Mississippi State 2026 win probabilities by game (sorted highest to lowest chance of an MSU victory).


These are estimated percentages based on home/road splits, opponent strength and coaching stability, MSU’s dual-threat QB/tempo offense advantages, defensive outlook under Zach Arnett, depth chart comparisons, and preseason projections (MSU generally viewed as a ~4–5 win team near the bottom of the SEC).

Rank	Game	Location	Est. MSU Win %	Notes
1	vs. Tennessee Tech	Home	92%	FCS mismatch
2	vs. ULM	Home	85%	Clear Group of 5 favorite
3	vs. Vanderbilt	Home	52%	Best realistic SEC win chance
4	at South Carolina	Road	45%	Toss-up; Beamer under pressure
5	vs. Missouri	Home	42%	Competitive home SEC game
6	at Minnesota	Road	38%	Tough early road test vs. Fleck
7	vs. Auburn	Home	28%	Home field helps but talent gap
8	vs. Oklahoma	Home	18%	Significant underdog at home
9	at LSU	Road	12%	Road vs. strong SEC contender
10	vs. Alabama	Home	10%	Heavy underdog even at home
11	at Ole Miss	Road	8%	Rivalry + road + talent gap
12	at Texas	Road	5%	Extreme underdog on the road

Projected wins implied by these percentages: roughly 4.3–4.5 (aligns with most preseason models).


The top six games (Tennessee Tech through Minnesota) are the realistic path to a bowl-eligible or near-bowl season. Everything from Auburn downward requires significant variance (injuries to the opponent, elite Taylor performance, defensive breakthroughs, etc.).

 

[M R DAWGS]

Things may have been a lot different for Lebby if not for Hutzler. That hire and decision to retain him absolutely tanked us to this point.

Lebby won’t be here much longer if the above is accurate.

 

[The Peeper]

Things may have been a lot different for Lebby if not for Hutzler. That hire and decision to retain him absolutely tanked us to this point.

Lebby won’t be here much longer if the above is accurate.

According to Gemini:





Could the Sooners call after this season for an OffCo and owe a $7.7 Million buyout to us? Just a thought.

On 2nd thought, the MSU way would be to fire him after losing 4 in a row to AL, LSU, OK, and TX, and THEN OK will call.................