Recruiting is a very fluid thing. Aaron for example came from Washington State and Pitino has had success there with Twill and Siva. Coach probably watched video and saw promise and when Aaron showed considerable interest in coming here, Pitino was open for it. I don't know for sure but I doubt Pitino went after Aaron having to steal him away from other schools. If I remember correctly, I think Aaron was a early signee.
The kid had high regards in the rankings and like the many many other recruits over the years, Pitino had to weigh the recruits he could get with those recruits he was hoping to get. I maintain that Pitino never expected Aaron to come in and be a great freshman like he would have thought Russell or Lyles would be. And there's no way he could know for sure how the kid would react to coaching until he got here.
Just think. What if Lyles and Whitehead had chose the Cards? Aaron would have seen little playing time kind of like Jaylen Johnson. He wouldn't have been called on to make a difference and his confidence wouldn't have been shattered when he failed on the court. He more than likely would have realized those two were one and dones and with Harrell, Blackshear and Rozier also leaving, he would get his chance. But then again, he may have left anyway.
Now Gill was truly a disappointment to Pitino. He was a HS teammate of Rozier and he often had better games than Rozier. Gill wanted to stay with Terry and Pitino was really happy about that. However, Gill never seemed to get over the hump. He got plenty of chances but he just couldn't seem to at least make shots in the games when he was lost on defense. When Terry decided to go pro, the one thing that led him to Louisville was gone. His transfer I think all believe was the correct decision.
It's just one of those years that we don't see often. We lose guys to transfers but they usually don't happen the same year we lose two guys to the NBA early. The Chris Jones thing doesn't count. He was a senior anyway so he was gone. Akoy Agau was another George Goode. A project that Pitino took a gamble with because we've not always had a surplus of big men. Now that we do, his transfer also makes sense.
Hopefully the one and done graduate student will not be something we see a lot. Pitino has to get some of these top recruits eventually and if the rule ever changes where these elite kids have to stay in college more than one season, I think he will.