Tex Tech sophomore getting $4MM in NIL to return.
GO RU
GO RU
Ace is veeery quiet.
- Thread starter SBP
- Start date
Yeah - I mean, if your not guaranteed to be in the top 10, taking a $4M bag isn’t really a bad idea.
The second contract may be where “the money is at” but you still have to perform well in the NBA during the first contract period and there is no guarantee of who will do that.
He declared last year and as a "6'9" forward" measured 6'7" without shoes.
Seems he's not a guaranteed 1st rounder even.
Definitely makes sense to return.
Players like this (sophomore/junior with limited draft potential) are going to benefit the most from the new system.
Instead of hoping for a 2nd round pick and ending up on the G-League you can stay and get paid in college.
Seniors out of eligibility will benefit the most in the draft I think.
Less spots in 2nd round taken up by underclassmen looking to just make money professionally.
Less kids going to go to Europe before exhausting US eligibility. Thats for sure.
1 or 2 million certainly doesn't make you wealthy. NBA money does, unless you piss it away or are in the league for a short time and don't invest properly.
And it is still a major advantage to get to the second contract a year earlier.
How many elite athletes, potential NBA 1st round picks think they aren't going to succeed?
Think is not the right word…. According to AI - approximately 40-50% of first round picks are still in the league and playing after their first contract is up.
When you just look at top 5 picks, that number will jump to 95%.
Is that true? I don’t really follow the NBA so I have no idea. Thats why I asked AI.
Don’t know on the % part, but even if you’re a bust top 5 pick, you’ll generally settle in as a role player at minimum.
I’m not familiar with any of the numbers. Do role players typically make so much more than $4M a year?
I’m just playing some devil’s advocate. I’ve been looking at the old Bob Huggins rosters trying to get my hopes up a little for a turn around. Name that pops out there - Joe Alexander. That kid I believe was a lottery pick. Never heard from him in the NBA I don’t think. I don’t follow NBA so I could be mistaken. Kid like that I assume did not get a second contract?
It just seems to me there are risks on both ends where it used to be a no brainer to leave. Getting $4 up front to stay could change things a bit for some. Not sure.
Joe Alexander was one of the silliest lottery picks ever.
Think the NBA league minimum is $1.1M, and average salary is like $12M
None of that matters.
If you went to Joe Alexander at that time and said "You don't want to go to the NBA. Look at the numbers. You most likely aren't going to get a huge second contract. Stay in college another year."
I would nearly guarantee he say "What? That's not going to be me. I believe in myself."
The fact he ultimately didn't make it doesn't actually matter.
No elite athlete is going to say "You're right. I'm more likely to fail than not."
Actual 1st round picks will still leave.
This will keep guys like Clif in college an extra year instead of winging in the G-League or overseas.
Well, back then Joe didn’t have an option to go back to WVU for $4M to play his senior year.
NBA Rookie Scale Salary Structure (guaranteed for at least the first 2 years) for 2025 below. Really makes little sense financially for a player like Ace (who is projected Top 5) to stay solely for NIL.
Pick | 1st Year Salary | 2nd Year Salary | 3rd Year Option Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | $10,474,200 | $10,998,100 | $11,521,700 |
2 | $9,371,400 | $9,840,200 | $10,308,900 |
3 | $8,415,800 | $8,836,300 | $9,257,400 |
4 | $7,587,600 | $7,967,100 | $8,346,600 |
5 | $6,871,100 | $7,214,400 | $7,558,000 |
6 | $6,240,600 | $6,552,700 | $6,864,900 |
7 | $5,697,000 | $5,982,000 | $6,266,600 |
8 | $5,219,100 | $5,480,100 | $5,741,100 |
9 | $4,797,400 | $5,037,500 | $5,277,300 |
10 | $4,557,600 | $4,785,400 | $5,013,000 |
11 | $4,329,600 | $4,546,300 | $4,762,800 |
12 | $4,113,300 | $4,319,100 | $4,524,800 |
13 | $3,907,500 | $4,103,100 | $4,298,400 |
14 | $3,712,400 | $3,898,000 | $4,083,800 |
Yeah I guess it’s more about being in the league vs the monetary value.
The goal is to get to the league, the assumption is that once there you will get paid. The faster you get there, the faster that contract rolls in
I guess. But there are no guarantees outside of that initial contract. I suppose there’s also the risk that your stock in college goes down with a bad season. But at least you know exactly what your up against in college.
So the first three year difference is about nine million dollars between the number 4 pick this year and the number 1 pick next year. Then throw in 2 million from Rutgers. You're just pushing out the big money a year. Hang out another year, play with your best friend, maybe become an all American, maybe make the post season, and get another year of education. You're only a kid once and you'll ultimately make over 100 million in you're career anyway. Have fun with your friends as long as you can. And how much money does a 20 year old really need?
Last edited:
If you are a projected lottery pick you leave…no questions
Even if you don’t pan out that money could set you up for life if managed properly. NIL is year to year and no contract.
He's set up for life either way. Be a kid for as long as you can. Nobody on their death bed ever said "I wish I had more money," especially an already millionaire.
Last edited:
You would have to go back to 2017 to find a true bust out of the top 5 picks. Markelle Fultz went 1, and he has been a pretty poor player, but he has had his moments as a double digit scorer, and got to a second contract that paid him $17 million a year. In that same draft, Josh Jackson went third, and he is out of the league. Since then, every player drafted in the top 5 has gone on to have a meaningful career, other than James Wiseman, who has largely been hurt since he was drafted. Just about everyone else is playing 25 minutes+ a game and is a double digit scorer.
Thanks for posting this RUInsanity, those numbers for rookie contracts are quite a bit higher than I thought
It’s why it makes no sense for Flagg, Dylan or Ace to return next year. And those figures don’t include potential endorsement deals.
These are sentiments of a bygone era that have no relevance in today's environment.
I mean - I guess if your being told you would go 7th and you think you could move to 3rd in next years draft it could? But no - not if your sure you are top 3. Makes sense for the TT kid.
There are still a few people who live by those sentiments thankfully.
I would imagine you can have plenty of fun with your friends when you make $10m a year.
College degree will always be there.
Also, it's likely been their dream since they were children to play in the NBA.
You never know what can happen in a year.
Why postpone your dream?
This isn't even accounting for the likelihood of been picked lower next year.
Ive heard Flagg wouldn't be guaranteed #1 overall in 2026 at this moment if he returned for another year.
Highly unlikely Ace is going from #4 this year to #1 next year.
And you can have plenty of fun with your friends on 2 million dollars, plus they'll be your own age and two doors down the hall, not a thousand miles away.
I’m sure Ace has other friends than just JaMichael Davis.
You make it sound like he’s going to be sitting alone in an apartment just waiting for Davis to graduate in 2 years.
Heard at Subway that Flagg and Bailey have been eerily quiet because they are going to shock the world and sign with a new Saudi pro basketball league for $100m each.
You joke but they are trying.
They want to control as many sports as possible with their never ending oil money.
Holy cow, that's it!!! Get the Saudi's to back RU athletics. Damn I'm a freaking genius.
You guys can thank me later. Free camels rides at the boardwalk too. Win win!!!
