Did you guys see the latest expansion rumors? I'll post the link below. I don't see any particular benefit in bringing aboard Rice, Charlotte or North Texas. Wouldn't those teams cut into our revenue sharing rather than enhance it after Cincy / Houston / UCF are gone and the AAC is renegotiating with ESPN? The AAC divvied out 7m per school under the old agreement while C-USA allotted only 500k per school. Looks like a step backwards to me... Would've been much more excited about Colorado State & Air Force over these 6 teams combined.
AAC Expansion
- Thread starter TulsaGrad07
- Start date
We will see for how long. ESPN will renegotiate imo like they did when UConn bailed.
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Yeah, that's the silver lining I suppose. I'm not sure how much longer that figure is sustainable though if we have to split it among another 3 teams (net change) and the teams replacing Cincy, UCF and Houston are FAU, Rice and UAB respectively which likely don't command nearly the TV audience or national interest. Regional interest for UNT is non-existent. Feels like Tulsa is being left behind and downgraded to a facsimile C-USA all over again.
In the article it mentions that the new teams will take 2 mil a year as their payout
UAB and North Texas will be decent pickups , remember, these schools will take a step up when they come here, they will get a lot more money coming in. Plus , it really doesn’t matter what conference your in anymore. We can be a Coastal Carolina beating up the big boys and be know as giant slayers , and kicking the crap out of our conference mates. That has to come with new leadership though
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UTSA will be the first to join the AAC. I'd like to see Coastal Carolina and either Louisiana or UAB. As far as the $, nobody knows what that will be. We just need to improve our program and become the best non power 5 out there. The rest will take care of itself.
Yeah, Plan C is Plan C and not Plan A or Plan B for a reason...
A Boise-less MWC vs the future AAC with CUSA additions... I'm not sure which one is less prestigious or better to be aligned with. Maybe the MWC based on the fact that many of the teams are state universities? I've heard the MWC has a crappy TV deal with weak revenue sharing... I hope our AD makes the best decision based on financial support for our athletics department.
Another point to consider: exit fees... Tulsa can't even afford Monty's exit fee let alone paying the American some multi-million dollar penalty for leaving the conference. I think we're stuck in the AAC unless it completely dissolves.
SMU people on the conference board are fairly confident they will be B12. Apparently the only AAC logo stuff they have is what is required now. I was skeptical but at least one who I know has good info constantly privately confirmed TCU is not interested in blocking them. Things change, Colorado St had apparently done all the footwork and was ready to announce, AFA was deep into the details when things changed.
We screwed up, we tried to coast and just get by. We never made the choices that showed we cared and were willing to do the work to remain competitive, we became Rice, so now we get to compete against them on the field. We also get to watch most of the AAC ride off into the coming split on the right side of the line while we drop out and can start strictly worrying about our academics.
Wait never mind we decided we are VoTech.
So exactly why is someone going to pay 10-15x as much to attend this university instead of a Votech, TCC, or SEO/NSU types? Petroleum engineering isn't going to continue to be viable much past 2035 and already shows strains. We are losing big time athletics that we squandered on Monty and Haith. Not a real good spot for this school and attracting and keeping students, which will be a finacial area of concern pretty quick since our enrollment is already small.
On the other hand, we're probably at our weakest point to be attractive for conferences in many years - university is kind of in shambles, athletics haven't been our best, questionable commitment to athletics... If the new admin is interested in athletics, this gives us a little chance to show that commitment and get things turned around and to be in a stronger position when the next round of realignment comes. Honestly I don't know why any good conference would want us now. Give us 4 or 5 years to get our feet back under us and that might be totally different.
Just my opinion but the only way SMU joins the Big12 is if TCU finds a home elsewhere.
This is the last round of realignment. It's over. The play off expansion and media contracts of the p5 all turn over at the same time. 2026 may not be the official split, but anyone not in a power type conference by then is on the outside looking in on the division split.
Beyond that there are no historical choices that are left for the power leagues to want. Essentially other than us, Army, Navy and Temple there are zero teams left with NY6's not picked. Even basketball they could just take the Big East and have secured over 90% of all final four participants in history.
With this taking 6 teams (most horrible at basketball and bad at football) we also have put an end to geography needs for the g5 to rearrange. This is the last bus out of town and for all intents and purposes it appears we wouldn't pay for the ticket. To busy saving money and getting paperwork in to do the real job.
Yes because there is no way everyone else wants to be in DFW recruiting area at least once a year. It's not like teams with alums who live in the area do one off games there, or that an Oklahoma school plays a Texas school there every year. Arkansas and Texas AnM wanted into dallas bad enough to give up home games. Besides how could two small private schools with less than 20k combined ever manage to coexist in a city of what 6m?
Just some points SMU people made to me.
SMU has the uncanny ability - through thick and thin, good times and bad - to suck. Seriously, has any school wasted more money for less results in recent years? I don't know how it happens but sucking is just in their genes. And they're inveterate cheaters. SMU is the last girl in the bar at closing time. If B12 takes them, it's because they think TCU is leaving.
Well I hope you're wrong. I don't think the ACC is stable and the Pac12 has more work to do. I think there will be another chance. The question to me is do we end up in the first conference below the professional "Power" conferences, or two levels down or three levels down or more? We've gone from 1 level down to two (maybe three) recently. I'm not sure 1 is reasonable, but 2 is possible, and 3 or 4 probably is too if we're not careful. But the clock is definitely ticking.
Hard to argue with anything you said, unfortunately. It's been a truly dismal time for TU the last couple of years. Hopefully they've learned something and gotten the people who were calling the shots out of the process.
Oh the p5 might take from each other, but the drawing line is going to be the power designation. Maybe the Academies get in, they have political pull just through Alumni, but other than ND everyone not in a power conferen by 2026 isn't getting in. BYU slid in just in time. A lot of the AAC teams will get in/already are in but Tulsa, ECU, and even Temple are probably left out. Not sure anyone besides AFA has a shot in the MWC either.
It's not cheating anymore, nor are they squandering right now.
I am pretty sure I read that SMU is in the lead for NIL money in the AAC right now. I kind of had your opinion when I first saw them talking about going. When I asked about it SMU fans made some good points. That's when I just flat out asked the guy who is usually up on what is going on, because some SMU fans implied TCU would help them. He didn't go that far but he was definitive that they would not block it, which kind of implies there are serious talks.
I understand those points. In the flip side, TCU doesn’t want to give up the recruiting advantage it currently has over SMU. Being in the same conference does this. The other Big12 schools don’t want an another equal school recruiting the Dallas area talent. Finally, the Big12 already has the Dallas area market. Adding a small private Dallas school adds no value to any media rights contract for the Big12.
I look for this round to be settled out by 2025.
Two words for you - Tim Wankovich. The NIL world will be completely unrecognizable in 3 - 5 years, don't get too carried away in what it looks like now.
I think the ACC probably will lose some schools or the Pac12 will add so I don't think the B12 or ACC stable for the long run. Plus every school in the B12 wants to be somewhere else and thinks they're better than being in the B12. Between the ACC and B12, one of the "power" conferences will be taking from the other, and the loser in that fight is going to need teams. Maybe both. Question is when that happens do we end up in the 2025 version of the B12, the MWC, the AAC or something worse?
The other schools want in Dallas as much as possible, which is why two schools who never give up home games (Arkie and AnM) and make probably double the money off tickets alone went to Dallas for several years in a row and have plans to continue to put games on occasion there.
TCU is one vote in what will be a twelve team league, they need two more votes to stop it. Which is why I think the correct answer is they are not actively working against SMU.
SMU like TU brings more eyes then they are given credit for by the public.
I agree 2025 is very possible, but 2026 is the playoff change and all major contracts will be up, seems if they go for a split they do it then as it will seem to be a very natural progression to casual fans.
In your scenario it doesn't matter the B12 will no longer be "power" and so will be outside looking in.
But yeah "lateral" moves are possible although not for ND or the ACC who are bound together till 2033. B12 though has issues.
There are ways to get into Dallas without giving up your recruiting advantage over an area school. The other conferences as well as the network know exactly the media value of each school. If SMU and TU attract eyeballs then they will be attractive to other conferences.
I’m not near as convinced as I was 4 months ago that Big12 schools are itching to join the PAC12. The Pac12 is frankly a mess. Suppose it will depend on the difference in media contracts come 2025 as to whether some current Big12 schools believe the positives outweigh the negatives.
I’m not near as convinced as I was 4 months ago that Big12 schools are itching to join the PAC12. The Pac12 is frankly a mess. Suppose it will depend on the difference in media contracts come 2025 as to whether some current Big12 schools believe the positives outweigh the negatives.
Yeah, I'm operating under the assumption that a Power conference for us is a pipedream. I wonder what happens with ND if the ACC loses 2 or 3 schools? Maybe their agreement has an out in that case. I think the ACC in 2026 will have the same fate as the B12 had in 2021. And agree that a watered down ACC and B12 aren't power conferences. But better to be in one of those than in the remnants of CUSA, which is also possible.
You're right. And as if our attendance problems weren't bad enough in the AAC, imagine how pathetic the crowds are going to be when we play Rice, Charlotte and North Texas in our own stadium... I think the bow of ship just nosed under the wave of change... The hull will snap in two soon and the Tulsa Fitzgerald will sink to the bottom of College Football's lake Superior equivalent.
Man we have some serious sad sacks here!
At this point we just need to be patient but smart. And a statement about commitment to athletics as a strategic priority could not hurt.
At this point we just need to be patient but smart. And a statement about commitment to athletics as a strategic priority could not hurt.
Agree. This thing isn’t over. Take everything all these conferences are saying with a grain a salt. Everyone is posturing while saying everything possible to avoid litigation down the road. Be patient. We aren’t going to end up in a P5 or P4 (however that shakes out) but we are still in decent position to end up in an expanded MWC with the likes of SMU imo.