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A few things I noticed while bored on ESPN

J

JRables

Redshirt
Nov 27, 2018
11
16
0
First...
I noticed that UNC actually has a comparable non-conference this year to Duke, but geez is Duke's conference schedule brutal (while UNCs seems much easier).

Second
I clicked through some of Duke's games while looking at their schedule, and according to BPI, they give Duke a strong chance to lose 5 ACC games, while UNC is expected to lose in one game going forward...at Cameron. (and they give Duke a 57% chance to beat UNC at home, while only a 31% chance to win at UNC)

Like I said, this is all based on BPI...but do they see something I don't??? I know they have talent, IMO Duke has more. I must be missing something.
 
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T

Testkid

Sophomore
Jan 23, 2013
378
192
0
JRables said:
First...
I noticed that UNC actually has a comparable non-conference this year to Duke, but geez is Duke's conference schedule brutal (while UNCs seems much easier).

Second
I clicked through some of Duke's games while looking at their schedule, and according to BPI, they give Duke a strong chance to lose 5 ACC games, while UNC is expected to lose in one game going forward...at Cameron. (and they give Duke a 57% chance to beat UNC at home, while only a 31% chance to win at UNC)

Like I said, this is all based on BPI...but do they see something I don't??? I know they have talent, IMO Duke has more. I must be missing something.
Click to expand...

So they are saying we will lose very tough road game we have in the acc. I don’t see that happening . I think these metrics overrate teams like unc. I see that unc team losing at least 5 or 6 more games in the regular season
 
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T

topps coach

All-Conference
Feb 6, 2008
20,901
4,122
0
PixelDevil said:
Your hatred has blinded you my friend, what the bpi takes into effect is HOF Coach Roy Williams. With him at the helm, they should honestly be favored in EVERY match going forward.
Click to expand...
Only if they can overcome the refs trying to screw them on every call.It is amazing that they can win considering this massive conspiracy to defraud them in every game
 
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H

hallside

Junior
Sep 18, 2005
850
356
0
I just think all of these ranking systems should not be released until after the regular season. They are made to take into account who you beat, who they beat, and where you beat them. It makes no sense to release them now, after 5 games. They will change dramatically every week this early in the year.
 
Q

Quavarius

Heisman
Aug 12, 2009
175,649
22,057
113
JRables said:
First...
I noticed that UNC actually has a comparable non-conference this year to Duke, but geez is Duke's conference schedule brutal (while UNCs seems much easier).

Second
I clicked through some of Duke's games while looking at their schedule, and according to BPI, they give Duke a strong chance to lose 5 ACC games, while UNC is expected to lose in one game going forward...at Cameron. (and they give Duke a 57% chance to beat UNC at home, while only a 31% chance to win at UNC)

Like I said, this is all based on BPI...but do they see something I don't??? I know they have talent, IMO Duke has more. I must be missing something.
Click to expand...

What does KenPom say? He’s usually more accurate. Never compared him to BPI’s season outlook.
 
D

dukiejay

Heisman
Mar 2, 2005
11,293
16,311
0
Duke's conference schedule is much more difficult this year, but that's how it works. Last season, it was the Heels with the brutal conference schedule. Just the way it is with the unbalanced schedule.
 
T

Testkid

Sophomore
Jan 23, 2013
378
192
0
Quavarius said:
What does KenPom say? He’s usually more accurate. Never compared him to BPI’s season outlook.
Click to expand...
He has them number 7 but what is more surprising is that their defense ranks number 29. Anyone can see that they do not have a top 50 defense. Thats why i have never been a fan of these metrics
 
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D

dukedevilz

Heisman
Apr 3, 2002
15,637
19,600
0
KenPom isn't the most accurate this time of season because he factors in expected performance at the season's end into the equation to buffer against the small sample size. Basically, he's trying hard not to let teams like Belmont and Loyola Marymount sneak into the top 10 like they do in the NCAA Net Rankings (or RPI). It's probably mildly accurate for predicting how it might look in March. But it doesn't accurately reflect how teams have performed so far in the early season.
 
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