The percentage of our free throw baskets against Indiana. If we shoot our normal 30ish%, we lose again.
It really is that simple.
It really is that simple.
70%
- Thread starter RUich
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Except we are at 57.9% on the season, not 30%. It is still horrible but there is no need to make it so much worse than it really is.
I could also say: Indiana shot 62.5% from 3 against Rutgers. If they shoot their season average (34.9%), or 6-16 instead of 10-16, we run them out of the gym. We have allowed 33% shooting from deep this year so it's not like we allow everyone to shoot 60+% from long range.
It is probably the most impactful negative stat for RU. RU would have already beaten 2 teams that were ranked in the top 10, Iowa (33% on FT's) and Wisconsin (28% on FTs), if RU shot 70% from the line. It is truly this team's Achilles heel. Good FT shooting, rebounding and defense allow you to win games when your offense is in a slump. During our recent swoon, RU did none of those things well.
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Unfortunately there are only so many things a team does well. No one comments about the dozen or so things the roster has improved upon and it is an actual myth that FT will cost a team games....it is no more or less valuable than giving up an offensive rebound, not boxing out, not rotating properly on defense, not inbounding the ball within 5 seconds, throwing wild alley-oop passes, not knowing time and score and how to properly build a lead by making a team defend.
The defense played by Myles Johnson AND Cliff Omoyuri outweighs FT shooting. I know it appears to be something that is costing games but Cliff, Myles and Mathis are not going to shoot 70% from the FT line. All 3 are more valuable because they have the potential to hold any of their opponents they guard, under their season averages, even as bad FT shooters.
Northwestern shoots FTS fine and can't get a rebound or defensive stop when you absolutely need them to. Indiana is also a bad FT shooting team that is overly reliant on 1 player to get 20+ points to win, as soon as they have someone stop that from happening, they lose.
RU isn't perfect, but there are things that despite what people believe, are way more important than trying to make a bad FT shooter a good one. What matters more is getting the right FT shooters who take the majority of your key shots, to the FT line. That means Harper, Baker, Young, McConnell and Mulcahy are the key players who should be shooting a higher percentage. If anything Harper at 62%, and Baker are the players who probably needs or can easily make more FTs, they're all likely to be fouled more often than your others.
The defense played by Myles Johnson AND Cliff Omoyuri outweighs FT shooting. I know it appears to be something that is costing games but Cliff, Myles and Mathis are not going to shoot 70% from the FT line. All 3 are more valuable because they have the potential to hold any of their opponents they guard, under their season averages, even as bad FT shooters.
Northwestern shoots FTS fine and can't get a rebound or defensive stop when you absolutely need them to. Indiana is also a bad FT shooting team that is overly reliant on 1 player to get 20+ points to win, as soon as they have someone stop that from happening, they lose.
RU isn't perfect, but there are things that despite what people believe, are way more important than trying to make a bad FT shooter a good one. What matters more is getting the right FT shooters who take the majority of your key shots, to the FT line. That means Harper, Baker, Young, McConnell and Mulcahy are the key players who should be shooting a higher percentage. If anything Harper at 62%, and Baker are the players who probably needs or can easily make more FTs, they're all likely to be fouled more often than your others.
No more important stat in college basketball than free throws taken and free throw % as a predictor of victory in college basketball. Nothing remotely close. The NCAA did a comprehensive study in December,2018 on the topic and they were 80% accurate as predictors of victory. Another study was limited to just the season 1977 and had similar findings. Lastly,Duke,Gonzaga and Stephen A.Austin we're all followed with a like conclusion. It is beyond obvious even without empirical data. Sorry that I don't have the technical skills to show the actual studies.
I was gonna start a thread....but never got around to it.... asking when was the last time that RU beat a team that was 10 for 16 on threes for a game.
Or the last time RU was 12-17 on free throws for a game ?
Or the last time RU was 12-17 on free throws for a game ?
For opponent 3pt shooting:
Illinois: 9-15 (very close)
No other opponents have passed the 50% mark from deep this season. Last year, Wisconsin shot 11-22 from deep in our loss at Wisconsin.
For our FT shooting:
Purdue: 14-17
Syracuse: 14-18
Nothing else above 70% this year. We shot 25-36 (69.4%) against Illinois. Last year, we went 11-12 against Illinois.
There's no data that supports FT shooting anymore than 15 other stats that probably all correlate to being a good team or winning. I can assure fans that rebounding, limiting 2nd shots, limiting the fouls, defense vs the 3 point line and countless other things in the flow of the game. For every 3 pointer taken, you have a chance for 3 vs any potential 1 point shot as a FT. The metrics all support 3 point shooting not FT shooting as the overwhelming factor towards winning.
Look no further than when RU was off to a 7-1 start and it was 3 point shooting not FT shooting that determined winning. As RU has cooled off from 3, games are now tighter. If you make or take 3 more 3 pointers per half, you have a higher likelihood of adding on average 6 more points per game VS driving to the basket and getting fouled and shooting FTs.
6 drives and fouls maxes out at 12 points, if you go 9-12 from FT line, you get 9 points.....if you take 6 additional 3 point attempts can be as high as 18 additional points, with the likely option of only making 2 of 6, which would be 6 points. The likelihood if they're good 3 point shots, you could be at 9 or more points.
FT shooting is actually more critical based on how referees call games and how many more attempts does a team get vs what does RU get. We already have seen in the flow of the game, RU gets more "ticky-tack" foul calls against them that push opponents into the FT bonus faster, which accelerates the gap of FTs taken and made.
The difference between free throw shooting and all the other
actions you describe is simply this: a free throw is an unobstructed action where another player cannot physically disturb or
contend with the possibility of changing the result. There is
zero excuse for any backcourt or wing player to shoot less
than 70 percent from the line
The discrepancy in our losses is startling forget our average but in all of the losses except MSU the discrepancy at the foul line was more than the difference between winning and losing
The way games are called is the #1 determining factor of wins and losses when you have evenly matched or evenly talented teams. If the argument is for a NBA game with very little difference in talent, then FT shooting can obviously be the difference between winning and losing.
In college hoops, there are probably less than 15% of the games where FT shooting is the deciding factor.
In college hoops, there are probably less than 15% of the games where FT shooting is the deciding factor.
Not exactly. If you attempt 30 FTs and make 50% of them vs 70% that’s a 6 point differential. Obviously helpful to get that boost but it’s not the end all.
More like - if we rebound and defend the interior as poorly as we did last match up we will likely take another pounding even if we shoot very well from charity.
need to be patient on offense, finish plays in transition (which we did so well early in the year) and defend much better than last time.
More like - if we rebound and defend the interior as poorly as we did last match up we will likely take another pounding even if we shoot very well from charity.
need to be patient on offense, finish plays in transition (which we did so well early in the year) and defend much better than last time.
So you bring up an interesting point...why is it that backcourt and wing players are expected to shoot FTs at a higher pct? It has become almost acceptable for big man to shoot them poorly. Is It is because they may have picked up the game later, or because they aren’t expected to actually shoot the ball from any distance, because their hands are larger, etc?
Wilt Chamberlain (I’m showing my age here) and Shaq couldn’t throw them in the ocean after years and years of playing the game. Yet many European big men shoot them with ease. You could suggest there are/were many more guards than there were dominating 7’ big men so it wasn’t as important but I think it’s simply not emphasized with big men.
As my HS coach used to tell me...it’s form, repetition, confidence. I think people are underestimating the confidence part. It’s much easier for many players to shoot in the flow of the game without over-thinking it than to stand on line with 10 seconds to shoot and all eyes on you. It’s obvious with some of our players that they are over-thinking the FTs. That’s were you hope the repetition takes over so the conference can build. Some of our players look disappointed whe they get fouled because they seem to dread going to the line. That’s a bad place to be psychologically because it takes away a lot of the players’s assertiveness for fear of getting fouled.
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I completely agree with your point. When I played in HS (long ago),
EVERY player had to shoot at least 70 pct or else you weren't
going to be on the court in the 4th qtr. My point is that at the
very least, our backcourt and wing players have to accomplish
that percentage. No excuses accepted
There’s another point here. If you look at the 3 games before Indiana - at first glance you can point to the poor FT percentage but when you realize that we didn’t actually miss more than 5 FT attempts in any of those games (you quickly dismiss the percentage as a secondary or terciary problem - in one of those games we attempted a total of 7 FTs.)
Even in the one game we would’ve actually won with better FT shooting (Iowa) we only missed 8 attempts. I’m not saying it’s not a weakness, but pointing to it as the primary problem seems like an exaggeration.
Even in the one game we would’ve actually won with better FT shooting (Iowa) we only missed 8 attempts. I’m not saying it’s not a weakness, but pointing to it as the primary problem seems like an exaggeration.
Other than Tez, the guards are fine. Geo hasn’t attempted many FTs. He’s a career 70%+ FT shooter. JY is over 70%. Paul is up to 67%. Pretty close. Caleb is a very good FT shooter.
I think BAC metioned this also. I could not think of any other reason that our guys have been less assertive than they were when the team was winning. Even going for rebounds has not been as aggressive.
There's really no excuse for shooting under 60 percent as a team at the Division 1 level. My local Division II team shoot 80 percent in its last full season and has probably not been under 70 in at least five years. FT shooting is mostly hours of practice. Some of the huge centers with big hands do have trouble developing a good shooting touch, but the athleticism of most players on Division I teams should enable them to be at least decent at the line.
Still - It’s hard to argue that missing free throws played a major role in any of the losses except Iowa.
28% from the line was putrid vs Wisconsin, but we only attempted 7 FTs in that game. Even if we made all of them, we still lose. The issue in that game was not finishing incredibly easy shots - many of them.
28% from the line was putrid vs Wisconsin, but we only attempted 7 FTs in that game. Even if we made all of them, we still lose. The issue in that game was not finishing incredibly easy shots - many of them.
I was watching the Sixers-Lakers game last night and I saw something astonishing. Dwight Howard shot his free throws standing about 18 inches BEHIND THE LINE. The 2nd one was an airball and wasn't even close to hitting the rim. I was dumbfounded. Why would anyone do that?
That I could not tell you but there is something to be said for shooting it underhand like Rick Barry or even slamming it off the backboard...especially for anyone shooting under 50%.
No no no no no! Don’t you know it’s all about the officials? Doesn’t matter if we win, either, it is all about the officials!!!!