6-4 finish should get us into the dance.
- Thread starter Go Budaw
- Start date
Yeah, we need to finish better than that. We would be an 11 loss team in that scenario.
You’ve lost it. We were 10-8 last year and got a 5-seed. 11-7 gets us at least in the field without question.
We had a much better non conference schedule and record last year. We had no bad losses and quality wins over Dayton, Cincinnati and Clemson. This year we had no quality non conference wins and home losses to LA Tech and New Mexico State. It’s going to take at least 11 SEC wins to offset that poor non conference play.
Our best win is Arkansas (RPI 25). We have a couple of bad losses and one really bad loss (Louisiana Tech). Conference record only tells part of the story.
Well obviously it would be better to finish 12-6 or so, but 11-7 and 20 wins will get us at least a 12-seed or play-in. We’re on the border of being in the Top 40 NET and should stay there as long as we are over .500 against the home stretch.
Have you seen our remaining opponents' RPI? Kentucky (33) and Arkansas (25) are the two best. The rest of them kinda suck, and we can't afford to lose any of them. But 11-7 and 20 wins will have us smack dab on the bubble and needing some help.
This team has drawn me in. If they could play a first half like they play the second half they can beat anyone. I really think 8-2 is a realistic expectation to finish the year and that certainly would get us in the tourney. Regardless it's great to be relevant in basketball again.
Don’t you remember us having like 10-11 Q1 wins last year, more than some 1 seeds, we have 1 I think this year.
We actually had 8 Q1 wins last year, good for 16th most in the country.
We actually had 8 Q1 wins last year, good for 16th most in the country.
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If we win at UK and Arky then 11 may do it, but a generic 11-7 and we’ll be sweating on SS, 12-6 and we’re easily in that 10 seed or better range with anything in the secT being gravy. Just not enough difference making games left on the schedule for 11-7 to mean much with our noncon
We better hope to make it to the Championship game of the SEC tourney if we lose four more. And even then, watch us get screwed out.
We can't afford to lose more than 2 games the rest of the season if we want to make sure we get a dance ticket.
Don't have enough quality wins and with the exception of UK and Ark there's nothing decent remaining on the schedule to boost a resume.
We can't afford to lose more than 2 games the rest of the season if we want to make sure we get a dance ticket.
Don't have enough quality wins and with the exception of UK and Ark there's nothing decent remaining on the schedule to boost a resume.
And we can't afford a single bad loss. If we mess around and drop a game to Ole Miss, for example, that could be fatal.
La Tech is not a bad loss at all. They have a net rating of 78. If they keep playing well, they should win their conference. New Mexico State is our worst loss (118 ranking and dropping). Oklahoma would have been a huge win for us OOC. Just came up short. Just keep playing like this and we will win some games.
I know it only tells part of the story....I didn’t say we were gonna be a 5-seed. But there’s a hell of a lot more difference between a Top 20 resume and one that’s not even Top 50 than just 2-3 bad losses. Our overall record would be almost identical heading into the SEC tourney.
Lost in our 5-0 SEC run, it all started after Howland was fined for commenting on the shitastick officiating job at LSU.
Remind how they even have a program after an FBI wire tap caught them admitting to paying players? They would be verbally raping us on ESPN if this happened to us and all they do is speak of LSU's undefeated SEC record in hushed reverent tones.
Remind how they even have a program after an FBI wire tap caught them admitting to paying players? They would be verbally raping us on ESPN if this happened to us and all they do is speak of LSU's undefeated SEC record in hushed reverent tones.
lol you’re high AF. Lunardi had us in right now with a win today. Go 6-4 down the stretch and we are definitely in.
That is a horrible loss. There is no other way to put it. A net rating of 78 is not good when it's a loss. It doesn't help much as a win. Their RPI is 125.
It’s a quad 3 loss, which is not as bad as a quad 4 loss. It’s not that horrible. Almost a quad 2 loss by a couple points.
8 More wins in the regular season will guarantee it but Just 7 more regular season wins could require a run to the finals in the SEC tournament.
It just always seems you need 1 more win than you really think...
It never fails that a lesser team from one of the conferences usually wins their conference championship and takes up slots.
It just always seems you need 1 more win than you really think...
It never fails that a lesser team from one of the conferences usually wins their conference championship and takes up slots.
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No we’re not, 6-4 and and we’re right where we are now. Barely on the right side of the bubble. Probably in but no where near definite. A cpl upsets in conference tourneys and who knows what happens. And we’d prob need one in the tourney. Without one we’re sitting at 20-12 and 11-8 vs a so-so SEC with no quality OOC wins to speak of. That’s still bubble territory at best possibly looking at a First Four game in Dayton.
Now go 7-3 (which if we have any business in the tourney we’ll do) and pick up a win in the secT and we’re sitting 22-11 and 13-7 vs the SEC and we’re safely in looking at a 7-10 seed.
Yes he has us in after today’s win but that’s if everything stays as is. 90% of which is out of our control. We control our destiny at 7-3 or heaven forbid 5-5. But at 6-4 our fate is controlled by a bunch of mid major conference tourneys.
Now go 7-3 (which if we have any business in the tourney we’ll do) and pick up a win in the secT and we’re sitting 22-11 and 13-7 vs the SEC and we’re safely in looking at a 7-10 seed.
Yes he has us in after today’s win but that’s if everything stays as is. 90% of which is out of our control. We control our destiny at 7-3 or heaven forbid 5-5. But at 6-4 our fate is controlled by a bunch of mid major conference tourneys.
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Man, you are setting yourself up for a letdown. I'm all for rooting for my team, but a dose of realism is healthy.
And no RPI is not used by the selection committee anymore. But it does tell us something about the relative strength of the teams we've beaten (and in this case, lost to).
And no RPI is not used by the selection committee anymore. But it does tell us something about the relative strength of the teams we've beaten (and in this case, lost to).
IF 8 is a guarantee then no way does 7 need a run to the finals. Now with 6 more I agree, but win 7 and pick up a win in the secT and we’re safe. But I do think 8-2 is legit possibility, do that and pick up a secT win and I think a 6 seed is in play.
When your best win is against an Arkansas that is below 30 in NET, any quad 3 loss is a critically bad loss. It would be more tolerable if we had more good wins on the schedule.
Our resume this year is nowhere near as good as some of you in this thread are making it out to be. 20 win seasons are not all equal. Last year we had a great resume with a lot of Q1 wins, and this year is nothing remotely close to that. If we end up dropping a couple of more games to bad teams, it could prove fatal. Almost every game is a must-win. The Kentucky game is a critical game for us to solidify the resume - State needs a win of that caliber very badly.
Nobody is saying the whole resume is what it was last year. And yeah, a couple more losses to bad teams will no doubt sink us. But the thing is, there’s no path to us getting to 6-4 or better if we drop a couple to the likes of A&M, Ole Miss, or Missouri. We’re not gonna lose a couple like that and then turn around and go win at Rupp or some ****, so its a moot point.
We need some good wins, sure. A quad 3 loss has nothing to do with that though. Especially one that’s barely quad 3 at 78 net ranking.
The New Mexico State loss is worse. But still, only quad 3.
We need good wins, that’s the bottom line.
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