5 for 5
- Thread starter tmatheny
- Start date
This rule is going to prevent student athletes from red shirting because of injury, from trying to play beyond five years of eligibility, etc. It will get rid of all the red tape. It is plain and simple. SA's will have five years to play their sport and once the five years is up, they are done. This will affect recruiting and roster management; especially high school seniors. The demand for chasing high school's senior will decrease some but it will force them to commit earlier. They will not be able to hold out or drag out their recruitment like in the pass, because now college coaches will have players who are in the fourth year of playing that sport can play an extra year. It is going to be very interesting to see how this is going to play out each season moving forward.
It shouldn't impact any UNC teams in the 2026-2027 year because nobody gets eligibility for next year who didn't already have it.
2027-2028, it gets interesting.
2027-2028, it gets interesting.
It is also important to remember that there is a transition period: any player currently in college, or entering college this season, gets to use whichever rule helps them the most: the old one or the new one.
So if you started later than 19 you will not suddenly lose eligibility. If you have already used a medical hardship to gain a 6th year, you will not lose it.
so in terms of eligibility, it will all be good news for around 4 years.
There will be sports that routinely use redshirts that actually won’t see much change: field hockey, wrestling, football. The main deifference is none now have to manage preserving redshirts. Play the freshmen good enough whenever you want.
And there will be sports that see significant pressure from pro leagues who will also see a limit to change: soccer, basketball, baseball. This sports lose their best players well before their 5th year.
the biggest change across many sports will be no more semi-pro 23 year olds entering college with multiple years to contribute. Especially men’s basketball.
And no more players choosing to tank a season on a mid-tier injury. If you can get back to the field you should.
it is notable to me that those who graduated this year and the 4 year players from last season will be the only ones this decade to miss a 5th year. Those who missed both the COVID free year and the new rule. Kind of unfortunate for them.
So if you started later than 19 you will not suddenly lose eligibility. If you have already used a medical hardship to gain a 6th year, you will not lose it.
so in terms of eligibility, it will all be good news for around 4 years.
There will be sports that routinely use redshirts that actually won’t see much change: field hockey, wrestling, football. The main deifference is none now have to manage preserving redshirts. Play the freshmen good enough whenever you want.
And there will be sports that see significant pressure from pro leagues who will also see a limit to change: soccer, basketball, baseball. This sports lose their best players well before their 5th year.
the biggest change across many sports will be no more semi-pro 23 year olds entering college with multiple years to contribute. Especially men’s basketball.
And no more players choosing to tank a season on a mid-tier injury. If you can get back to the field you should.
it is notable to me that those who graduated this year and the 4 year players from last season will be the only ones this decade to miss a 5th year. Those who missed both the COVID free year and the new rule. Kind of unfortunate for them.
Also no more Olympic deferrals, which will impact swim/dive and gymnastics at minimum (in general, not at UNC specifically)
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Probably the biggest near term impact of this is going to be on recruiting, because the new 5-in-5 rule combined with the roster cap creates a lot of uncertainty for coaches. Do we think currently-enrolled athletes are going to be pushed to commit to a 5th year (or not) ASAP so that coaches know how many openings they have in the next couple years? Recruiting for the high school class of 2028 has already started in most if not all sports.
During the COVID era the transfer/attrition rate of 5th year players (as grad students) was over 50%. In addition to players seeking their best opportunity for grad school and competition on one side, there is was an unwritten rule with most coaches that your scholarship is good through an undergraduate degree regardless of team value if you did your work. But after that, coaches have no problem saying you need to enter the portal for grad school. I think that will continue. And there will continue to be a ton of grad transfers in and out to manage the roster.
again, this will go both ways (people you want to stay will leave) but it will continue to aid the program/roster more so than the athlete/individual.
That provides a level of control and management to schools in this new era.
But it does mean no matter what that there simply will be less slots open to D1 athletes in each class. It will be around 15-20% less slots per class.
The Ivy so far does not allow grad students to play sports. Almost all graduate in 4 years, many in 3. So the Ivy will continue to be a pipeline in many sports, some of which they are highly competitive in like field hockey and lacrosse as examples. This will put additional stress on P4 and mid major roster openings.
2028 recruits are committing at a faster rate across multiple sports right now. This is an ongoing trend, but it seems to have spiked. Maybe that has to do with more scholarships available per sport due to the House v NCAA settlement: if someone offers you a full ride you jump on it.
but I suspect recruits are also getting advice that they need to commit early as roster spots become more limited.
but I suspect recruits are also getting advice that they need to commit early as roster spots become more limited.
This is where I think we have the potential to really excel across all sports. UNC has a lot of very strong grad programs, and academically-inclined athletes, particularly in non-revenue sports, will be jumping at the chance to get a year of grad school paid for at a strong academic program.
I think the 5 for 5 rule is also causing them to commit early so that they will have a roster spot before the 5th year seniors can take that roster spot which is smart on their part. I did mentioned this on another thread that the 5 for 5 rule was going to cause student athletes coming from high school to commit early and they will not be able to drag out their recruitment like in the past because if they due that roster spot might be taken by a fifth year player.
Great point, Reese D'Ariano, our generational 2027 recruit in field hockey, plans to take a gap year for the 2027-28 season to prepare for the 2028 Olympics. (she is a regular contributor on the USA Senior national team right now as a 16 year old.)
Beacuse teh NCAA removed the high school graduation trigger from this rule last minute, and her 19th Birthday is not until 2028 (born in Jan 2009), this gap year should not harm her. (If I have my math right.) However, if she plans to take a gap year in 2031-32 also for the 2032 Olympics, then she will lose a year, having only 4 years in college over 5 years. That is of course assuming she wants to be in college for 5 years.
To be clear, she would still play 4 seasons, same as the old rule. But the difference is all of her peers will play 5 years while she plays only 4.
That is unless she can call her 2032 gap year a religious mission, lol.