We have to make up the 40 points per game made by the 6 players that left. The majority were made by Sanders (15.2), Freeman (11.1), and Williams (8.3) the rest were made by Sa, Bullock, and souf. If the 6 new players, I consider Kiss and Johnson new, can average 6 ppg and Baker, Omoryi, and Thiam can boost their average we can be better than last year.
40 points
- Thread starter RUBigJ
- Start date
Don't focus on PPG. Focus on efficiency.
I think Baker comes close to Sanders (12 ppg) Kiss exceeds Williams (10 ppg ) and Johnson and Carter exceed Freeman (12 ppg). With Thiam and Omoruyi ( not to mention Doorson and Doucoure) putting up better numbers and the added depth Harper, Mathis, McConnell. I think we’ll be much improved offensively.
I think Baker will exceed Sanders due to us having more shooters to cover; he'll get more open looks than last year.
Throw out the replacing PPG stuff.
Now asking where the ball is with 4 seconds left in the shot clock is a valid question.
OR who is going to get the big defensive rebound off a miss with 2 minutes left in a close game
OR who is going to get the offensive rebound in that same spot.
It is ALL about efficiency...if you really want to break it down.
PPG is going to depend on the amount of possessions which has many variables attached to it.
How we do in those offensive possessions?
1. What will be our percentage in taking those shots (whether they be 3s, 2s or 1s)?
2. How often will we retrieve our misses?
3. How many offensive possessions will end in a turnover?
4. How often will we be fouled and go to the line?
Now asking where the ball is with 4 seconds left in the shot clock is a valid question.
OR who is going to get the big defensive rebound off a miss with 2 minutes left in a close game
OR who is going to get the offensive rebound in that same spot.
It is ALL about efficiency...if you really want to break it down.
PPG is going to depend on the amount of possessions which has many variables attached to it.
How we do in those offensive possessions?
1. What will be our percentage in taking those shots (whether they be 3s, 2s or 1s)?
2. How often will we retrieve our misses?
3. How many offensive possessions will end in a turnover?
4. How often will we be fouled and go to the line?
Agreed it's about efficiency and not just ppg.
The departing 7 players (Sanders, Freeman, Williams, Sa, Bullock, Mensah, Dadika) had collective stats of:
3301 minutes (97.1 min/g over 34 games)
1208 pts (35.5 ppg)
458/1151 FG (.398)
47/223 3P (.211)
245/268 FT (.645)
634 reb (18.6 rb/g)
The question is whether a combination of the improvement of the 5 returning players and the addition of 6 players (Kiss, Johnson, Mathis, McConnell, Carter, Harper) can do better than this.
Will they shoot more than 1151 FGs in those 3301 minutes and/or hit at greater than .398? Will there be more 3's among those shots and at a higher rate? Will they get to the line more and shoot better than .645 when they do? Can we replace or exceed the rebounding total?
A few observations/expectations:
Three pointers - 45% of our threes last year were taken by players who shot a collective 21%. I have to assume that not only will we take more threes next year (we were last in the B1G by 102 shots last year), but we'll have a better percentage (also last in conference last year).
Points in the post - Freeman frequently struggled to score against bigger players in the post last year, but still took a lot of shots... which left him behind most PFs in the conference in FG%. We also didn't get a lot out of our centers. I think Carter will have a better FG% in the post on fewer shots due to his size, and we'll get better production out of the 5 this year overall.
Ball movement - Too often last year, our offense was just "play hot potato" in the early portion of the clock, ending with either "Corey at the top with 7 seconds left" or "Freeman forcing a shot into trees". I'm expecting the offense to be a bit more spread out next year with more options, and more ball movement overall.
Rebounding - This is where I expect us to fall off a bit. Freeman was a great rebounder, and Sanders was also a good rebounder on the defensive boards. In limited minutes, Williams also stuck his nose in there and got a lot of boards. Hopefully we'll have fewer misses, so fewer opportunities for offensive boards - but we need to limit the number of second chance points, too.
The departing 7 players (Sanders, Freeman, Williams, Sa, Bullock, Mensah, Dadika) had collective stats of:
3301 minutes (97.1 min/g over 34 games)
1208 pts (35.5 ppg)
458/1151 FG (.398)
47/223 3P (.211)
245/268 FT (.645)
634 reb (18.6 rb/g)
The question is whether a combination of the improvement of the 5 returning players and the addition of 6 players (Kiss, Johnson, Mathis, McConnell, Carter, Harper) can do better than this.
Will they shoot more than 1151 FGs in those 3301 minutes and/or hit at greater than .398? Will there be more 3's among those shots and at a higher rate? Will they get to the line more and shoot better than .645 when they do? Can we replace or exceed the rebounding total?
A few observations/expectations:
Three pointers - 45% of our threes last year were taken by players who shot a collective 21%. I have to assume that not only will we take more threes next year (we were last in the B1G by 102 shots last year), but we'll have a better percentage (also last in conference last year).
Points in the post - Freeman frequently struggled to score against bigger players in the post last year, but still took a lot of shots... which left him behind most PFs in the conference in FG%. We also didn't get a lot out of our centers. I think Carter will have a better FG% in the post on fewer shots due to his size, and we'll get better production out of the 5 this year overall.
Ball movement - Too often last year, our offense was just "play hot potato" in the early portion of the clock, ending with either "Corey at the top with 7 seconds left" or "Freeman forcing a shot into trees". I'm expecting the offense to be a bit more spread out next year with more options, and more ball movement overall.
Rebounding - This is where I expect us to fall off a bit. Freeman was a great rebounder, and Sanders was also a good rebounder on the defensive boards. In limited minutes, Williams also stuck his nose in there and got a lot of boards. Hopefully we'll have fewer misses, so fewer opportunities for offensive boards - but we need to limit the number of second chance points, too.
These kind of analysis are silly. Things aren't that simple.
21% between them and took 45% of the teams 3's? Ouchhh. Ricky Shields rolling over in his grave right now!
Points per game is very relevant because Rutgers only averaged 60 points per game against B1G teams.Rutgers needs to average close to 70 points per league game to realistically expect winning at least 6 league games and ensure a winning season for the first time after 12 consecutive losing seasons.
Give me better ball / player movement and better shot selection and I'm happy. I think a Pikiell coached team will always be tough and agressive offensive rebounders.
Iowa averaged 76.6 ppg in conference last year (3rd in the conference) and finished 4-14, and Illinois averaged 71.8 (6th in the conference) and also finished 4-14. Meanwhile, Indiana scored just 68.4 per game and finished 9-9.
PPG isn't that meaningful in a vacuum.
Its meaningful at Rutgers where they have been last every season in the B1G.Stats can be used to defer attention away from Rutgers but that won't change the status quo.Increased scoring combined with solid defense and rebounding is the plan that Pikiell is installing and hopefully will be seen this season.
Points per POSSESSION is very relevant. If your argument is possessions are a constant than OK. Possessions arent a constant. However I could see our tempo (possessions) pretty close to last year.
Our highest season ppg total since joining the Big Ten was in 2015-16, when we scored 67.7 and went 7-25. Of course, we also gave up 80.3 per game.
Focusing on ppg in a vacuum just isn't that meaningful.
If we picked up the tempo and scored 70 ppg, but because of the increased number of possessions and low efficiency also ended up allowing 75 ppg, then that's still not moving us forward.
You can play the same tempo and find 2 to 3 more 3s made per game and look drastically different. How many shot attempts were turned down because of the defense focused on others and placed the ball with the 4th and 5th options on offense.
The key lands with those 4 possessions per game where Geo has to potentially force a shot up OR can the ball move where another player can create their own offense.
Harper Jr has offensive skills off dribble and as a staionary shooter.
McConnell is a combo scorer....
Mathis isnt asked to shoot 40% from 3, but can generate contacr and get to the FT line.
We also add Johnson, a healthy Doorson and Shaq Carter who should help on the glass.
Kiss isn't expected to shoot 40% from 3, but capable of a key basket off the dribble as well.
Any marginal improvement from Doucoure defensively means more points on offense because he's a capable player.
I think the 3 point shooting and spacing will be better and help the ability of Mathis and McConnell the most...they are the wild cards.
I just don't see anything other than growing pains and sorting out/competition for minutes....this is really about competition more than PPG
The key lands with those 4 possessions per game where Geo has to potentially force a shot up OR can the ball move where another player can create their own offense.
Harper Jr has offensive skills off dribble and as a staionary shooter.
McConnell is a combo scorer....
Mathis isnt asked to shoot 40% from 3, but can generate contacr and get to the FT line.
We also add Johnson, a healthy Doorson and Shaq Carter who should help on the glass.
Kiss isn't expected to shoot 40% from 3, but capable of a key basket off the dribble as well.
Any marginal improvement from Doucoure defensively means more points on offense because he's a capable player.
I think the 3 point shooting and spacing will be better and help the ability of Mathis and McConnell the most...they are the wild cards.
I just don't see anything other than growing pains and sorting out/competition for minutes....this is really about competition more than PPG
I don't think anyone's expecting Kiss, Mathis, or any other newcomer to shoot 40% from three (or even 39.9%)... but even the 33-35% range would be a far cry from 21%.
I'm just hoping we have a third (and maybe even a fourth!) player that can shoot at least .350 from range.
The last time we had more than 2 players shoot better than .350 from the arc (with at least 50 attempts) was 2005-06 (Douby, Inman, Farmer, Webb), and we've only managed it twice in the last 22 seasons (both during the Waters era).
2017-18: Thiam, Baker
2016-17: Johnson
2015-16: Grier
2014-15: n/a
2013-14: Seagears, Mack
2012-13: Mack, Seagears
2011-12: Carter
2010-11: Mitchell, Beatty
2009-10: Beatty
2008-09: Griffin
2007-08: Farmer, Coburn
2006-07: n/a
2005-06: Douby, Inman, Farmer, Webb
2004-05: n/a
2003-04: Shields, Webb
2002-03: Shields, Lamizana, Wooten
2001-02: n/a
2000-01: T. Billet, Greer
1999-00: T. Billet, Greer
1998-99: G. Billet, Hodgson
1997-98: G. Billet, Hodgson
1996-97: Johnson, Hodgson