Although the Cats have a lot of issues and deserve the more than 3 TD spread, the youth of OSU may be a factor and it could turn out closer than expected. But it would really require us to play lights out, OSU to play uninspired, and may require a Penn State like break. Otherwise, we lose by more than 30. They are going to cover Carr like wallpaper (OSU has 2nd best B1G passing defense* by yards, 5th by efficiency) and the speed of their linebackers will really make it tough to run (5th best B1G rushing defense). Our best hope is Thorson being extremely accurate (4th best passing offense by yards and 2nd best passing efficiency), Thorson being able to get us a few first downs with his feet (mobile QBs cause them issues), and a second receiver, like Nagel, having a career day. Our chance is to stop the run early (we are 4th best in B1G against the run) while OSU depends on running the football (2nd best in B1G). If we win that battle and get a lead, OSU would be forced to pass (6th best in B1G n yards and 4th in efficiency) and that is probably where they have some vulnerability.
It is only a small chance that the game would go that way but it is possible. It is exactly how Penn State won (holding OSU about 100 rushing yards below their average and forcing Barrett to pass and sacking him 6 times). Our rushing defense is much better than PSU.
(*stats are for B1G games only)