2019-20 Roster Analysis & Projection

[Son_Of_Saul]

We’ll be straight on Offense.


1. This team should have more space. Rule change and better guards than last year.

2. Ya’ll really sleeping on Juzang. He’s full 6’7 and we’ve already been hearing he’s a lot better than anyone thought. He can score on all 3 levels.

3. Maxey is a bucket. Idk what his percentage is gonna be. But he can just score.

4. Keion Brooks is also underrated and can get buckets. Not terrible jump shooter and he’s very skilled (good hands) and active on boards.

5. Ashton will score more. He can pretty much get in the lane at will. He just needed improved decision making on what to do when he got there. But the games he was decisive in the lane, he was very good, and also a damn decent FT shooter who draws contact when he drives.

6. Sestina is known more for offense. And has veteran savvy.

7. Quickley can shoot yo. He was decent and he’s gonna get better.

8. Only ppl I like really don’t want shooting is Whitney and nick Richards. And they’re both good at other things offensively. Slashers/finishers.

Montgomery obv shouldn’t be jacking but I think he’ll be a lot more solid at those 15-18 footers.

Your projection for UK's success is predicated on all of IQ, EJ, Hagans, and Richards improving, plus Juzang and Brooks both being guys that the national recruiting gurus largely overlooked. It's also dependent on Maxey being an elite scorer from day one.

If our success is dependent on all of those things happening, I'm not sure I feel overwhelmingly optimistic about next season's title chances. When there's so many question marks on a roster, that doesn't usually translate into a Final Four team.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

Guys we had no idea would be as good as they were: Bledsoe, Harrellson (SR), Booker, Gilgeous-Alexander, Herro

Guys we thought were going to be great but underwhelmed as FR: Poythress, Briscoe, Gabriel, Diallo, Montgomery

I don’t feel as comfortable projecting players as I once did. It’s not inconceivable that a Juzang or Allen (if healthy) emerge as a go-to scorer by March. They are solid talents.

It’s also possible Montgomery and Richards don’t improve, and Sestina is Eloy Vargas 2.0

We just don’t know. But it’s fun to project.

The big difference is that every Cal team (minus the 2013 and 2018 teams) has had at least one guy we knew would be a stud by March. This team doesn't really have that. Maxey was barely composite top 10 in a weak class. That doesn't compare to the Knights, Davises, Towns, Foxes, Murrays, or PJs (sophomore version) of yesteryear.

Could Maxey becomes that guy? Sure. But to put him on Knight or Murray's level from day one is a mistake.

 

[CatsPaws270]

None of your post changes what I said. If any of our freshmen guards are as good as Herro was last year we're going to be really good because this years frosh are going to have a lot more experience around them. If he was one of the worst defenders on the team why did he always get the assignment to guard the opponents best guard? 7-25 in the tourney means teams game planned to stop him as evidenced by only 4.17 3 point attempts per game. Funny how you only mention his scoring when he led us in minutes most games, had 4.5 rebounds per game, was second in assists and assist to turnover ratio, second on the team in steals and even had twice as many blocks as Keldon. All this while shooting 93.5% from the foul line and being the only player that started every game. Committed only 47 fouls in those 37 games that he played 32.6 minutes/per.
To say Tyrese Maxey is better at creating his own shot before he has played one game against college competition is a guess by you and I hope you're right because Herro had a nice step back and midrange game to go with a nice floater. You and I watched different guys I guess . Herro was the best basketball player on the team last year IMO and it really wasn't close.

As I said, he was a good volume scorer...but again he was not an all around player.

I’m not saying Maxey will be better, I’m just saying the bar isn’t as high as everyone makes it out to be about Tyler.

And you prove my point...if they game-planned to stop him...and he continued to struggle...then what was his use? What did he contribute? That’s my point....Tyler didn’t do anything down the stretch to elevate us to another level. They gameplanned to stop him from hitting 3’s...so he really had nothing else going for him.

And yes Keldon and Ashton were just as ineffective at times too...but my overall point that having freshman guard play leading us was our undoing. They were tired and beat up down the stretch. Tyler couldn’t score...so he was pretty much a non factor in the tournament.

He led us in minutes? Well maybe that explains why he wasn’t effective at the end of the year. And now we have two sophomore guards back that can power us down the stretch.

We keep saying that we can’t replace his scoring, but I don’t see that...he was a 35% 3-point shooter. He averaged 14 points on 11 shots a game. He was our best scoring option...but he real....outside of PJ it wasn’t that hard to be our best scoring option last year.

Yes, of course he would’ve been an all-American as a sophomore. But he wasn’t an all around good player as a freshman. He was a volume scorer who really didn’t score in the big games we needed him too score. Great intangibles and could rebound well..

 

[DerekMcPwn]

Your projection for UK's success is predicated on all of IQ, EJ, Hagans, and Richards improving, plus Juzang and Brooks both being guys that the national recruiting gurus largely overlooked. It's also dependent on Maxey being an elite scorer from day one.

If our success is dependent on all of those things happening, I'm not sure I feel overwhelmingly optimistic about next season's title chances. When there's so many question marks on a roster, that doesn't usually translate into a Final Four team.

It’s crazy, man. Most people regard me as one of the board’s sunshine pumpers, but there are people in this thread mainlining soma or something.

 

[CatsPaws270]

Your projection for UK's success is predicated on all of IQ, EJ, Hagans, and Richards improving, plus Juzang and Brooks both being guys that the national recruiting gurus largely overlooked. It's also dependent on Maxey being an elite scorer from day one.

If our success is dependent on all of those things happening, I'm not sure I feel overwhelmingly optimistic about next season's title chances. When there's so many question marks on a roster, that doesn't usually translate into a Final Four team.

With 4 retuning former 5 stars, the #2 grad transfer, and 5 players from the #2 recruiting class...If you don’t feel good about the team with that talent..then Cal isn’t the coach for Kentucky...

I don’t believe that, talent is talent. And now we have experience to go with it... no starting over on day 1.

 

[track42]

No inside scoring and all and outside shooting may be a problem.At least all the other teams this season also have issues.

 

[bucsrule8872]

For me, the biggest concern is an inside scoring threat.

Montgomery and Richards averaged 4ppg each last year. Sestina played in the Patriot League and I think he is going to be more of a spot up shooter than a post presence for us, anyway. So we don't have a proven post up scorer.

Cal almost always builds his team around post scoring, not perimeter shooting, so I feel like that's a bigger concern.

Just my opinion.

 

[CatsPaws270]

For me, the biggest concern is an inside scoring threat.

Montgomery and Richards averaged 4ppg each last year. Sestina played in the Patriot League and I think he is going to be more of a spot up shooter than a post presence for us, anyway. So we don't have a proven post up scorer.

Cal almost always builds his team around post scoring, not perimeter shooting, so I feel like that's a bigger concern.

Just my opinion.

People forget 2011 happened. I think this team has a lot of parts similar to that team mixed in with 2016. I think Cal will play the better guy, but 2011 showed what he could do with experienced players. That team was all coaching..not the most talented, athletic, or deepest. Cal coaches his butt off. This team is the most experienced non-2015 team he’s had since 2011. He had Ulis back in 2016, but that roster had a lot of holes(I mean we didn’t get Murray until August). This 2020 team has answers at every position...maybe not the best...but talent/potential and depth at every spot.

Josh Harrellson and freshman Terrance Jones...with Eloy Vargas as a backup.

Richards, Montgomery, Sestina, and a small ball 4 Brooks....there’s no TJ in that group...but a lot more length, athleticism, and shooting.

And I remember that year....
“Well Brandon Knight will have to carry the load”
“Lamb is a good shooter, but just a 4-star”
“Without Kanter, we are stuck with Harrellson and no way that works. Just Jones and nothing else”
“Darius Miller has been nothing but soft for 2 years, what makes you confident he does that now?”
“DeAndre Liggins? Can we even trust he will be on the team”


Harrellson got better. Willis got better. Hawkins got better. Cal found use for Julius Mays. Don’t you think Sestina can find a place under Cal too?

Liggins, Miller, Willie, Poythress(until injury), and even Marcus Lee all struggled at first but ended up becoming better players by their junior years. Don’t you think Calipari can figure out Nick Richards too?

Jones, Lamb, Harrison’s, Dakari, Ulis, Briscoe, PJ, and even Wenyen late in 2018 all made large strides in their sophomore years. You don’t think Hagans, Quickley, and EJ won’t make strides?

And I know...not everyone gets better(looking at you Jon Hood) But look at guys like Wiltjer and Matthews...although they didn’t do it at Kentucky, experience and training made them better players because that’s how players naturally progress.

 

[ksharpless]

Your projection for UK's success is predicated on all of IQ, EJ, Hagans, and Richards improving, plus Juzang and Brooks both being guys that the national recruiting gurus largely overlooked. It's also dependent on Maxey being an elite scorer from day one.

If our success is dependent on all of those things happening, I'm not sure I feel overwhelmingly optimistic about next season's title chances. When there's so many question marks on a roster, that doesn't usually translate into a Final Four team.

Quickley doesn’t have to improve that much to hit that benchmark. He’s not gonna shoot 20 times a game. 1-3, 2-5 from 3 is doable.

Hagans has done everything I described. Consistency was the issue, an issue that is quite reliably improved with age.

Brooks is a 5 star player that played on the #1 team in the country and was as important to its success as Isaiah Stewart when they played top competition.

No one overlooked Juzang. He’s a legit 5-star that only went down because he reclassified.

He’s rated higher than Herro which comes to my next point.

We have a history of similarly ranked players with similar attributes (all solidly 6’6, long, and most importantly basketball SMART players) Booker, Shai, and Herro, outperforming the ranking. We’re already hearing he’s doing this against his teammates.

These players benefit from having other great teammates around. Juzang won’t have to be RJ Barrett, he will fill his role and

Finally, our sheer size and athleticism advantage in the paint, not just the post, but the ability to drive, cause havoc, and offensive rebound is an advantage we have every year.

Tell me that won’t be the case this year as well?

 

[ksharpless]

Not saying we’re 40-0 but anyone think we’re in for 10 losses is crazy to me

 

[kevcat]

I think the shooting will be fine. The problem is trying to replace PJ.

We don’t have anyone coming in that’s even close to
being able replace him. Blackshear would have been that guy.

The defense should be great. Not sure about rebounding though.

 

[weatherbird]

The problem we have in trying to analyze the roster is that we really have no idea how most of these guys will perform. We also have no idea how the usage will be split. For instance, in 2012, one of the reasons we seemed to be so balanced offensively, is we had 2 guys killing it from behind the arc, and they took the majority of those shots. Although most people thought that team was a great shooting team, they were really very average outside those 2 guys, but again, they took the majority of the shots from out there.

As for those mentioning PJ, he will be replaced by multiple someone's I would imagine. For the most part, that's how that happens. His 10 or so shots a game wont go to just one person, but probably split between 3 or 4 players. I think the roster is fine. Lamb wasnt know to be a 3 pt shooter, then has 2 seasons at UK near the 45% mark. We may find holes after the season starts, but I dont see any definite holes at this point.

 

[STL_Cat]

Everyone is just guessing at this point. Most guessing on the overly positive side, which is fine this is a fan board. But we really don’t know what kind of team we’re going to have next year.

 

[Catlogic15]

I’m worried about rebounding, and getting fouls in the paint.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

Quickley doesn’t have to improve that much to hit that benchmark. He’s not gonna shoot 20 times a game. 1-3, 2-5 from 3 is doable.

Hagans has done everything I described. Consistency was the issue, an issue that is quite reliably improved with age.

Brooks is a 5 star player that played on the #1 team in the country and was as important to its success as Isaiah Stewart when they played top competition.

No one overlooked Juzang. He’s a legit 5-star that only went down because he reclassified.

He’s rated higher than Herro which comes to my next point.

We have a history of similarly ranked players with similar attributes (all solidly 6’6, long, and most importantly basketball SMART players) Booker, Shai, and Herro, outperforming the ranking. We’re already hearing he’s doing this against his teammates.

These players benefit from having other great teammates around. Juzang won’t have to be RJ Barrett, he will fill his role and

Finally, our sheer size and athleticism advantage in the paint, not just the post, but the ability to drive, cause havoc, and offensive rebound is an advantage we have every year.

Tell me that won’t be the case this year as well?

Juzang was hovering around #20 in his class before he reclassified.

I expect decent play from him, but I'm not expecting Herro or Booker level-surprise.

 

[MWes11]

Everyone is just guessing at this point. Most guessing on the overly positive side, which is fine this is a fan board. But we really don’t know what kind of team we’re going to have next year.

Exactly. Just seems crazy for anyone to talk in definitive statements when we haven't seen this team play yet. But I'm with you. I am a more glass is half full at this point with this team with what we have heard and seen so far. It will be fun.

 

[CatsPaws270]

The problem we have in trying to analyze the roster is that we really have no idea how most of these guys will perform. We also have no idea how the usage will be split. For instance, in 2012, one of the reasons we seemed to be so balanced offensively, is we had 2 guys killing it from behind the arc, and they took the majority of those shots. Although most people thought that team was a great shooting team, they were really very average outside those 2 guys, but again, they took the majority of the shots from out there.

As for those mentioning PJ, he will be replaced by multiple someone's I would imagine. For the most part, that's how that happens. His 10 or so shots a game wont go to just one person, but probably split between 3 or 4 players. I think the roster is fine. Lamb wasnt know to be a 3 pt shooter, then has 2 seasons at UK near the 45% mark. We may find holes after the season starts, but I dont see any definite holes at this point.

And you made the correct point...

It's not having the guys that can hit the most shots....but having a team of guys who know how to take THE RIGHT SHOT. 2011 and 2012 were the best teams from that end. It starts with good backcourt and wing players. Liggins, Miller, and Harrelson weren't the stars...but they were all talented enough as multi-year guys to guide them through the rough patches. 2016...Ulis was amazing to carry that team where he did...but not any experienced scoring options around him. This year just has the experienced guys and the usual talented cast of players.

I see this as a hybrid of 2011 and 2016. Enough experience from older players (Miller, Liggins, Harrelson -> Hagans, Richards, EJ, Sestina, Quickley) and backcourt experience/talent like 2016 (Ulis, Murray, Briscoe, Matthews, Hawkins -> Hagans, Maxey, Quickley, Juzang, Whitney).

The similar part...questions in the front court...
2011: Harrelson, Jones, & Vargas
2016: Skal, Lee, Willis, Poythress(post ACL), Hump
2020: Richards, Montgomery, Sestina, & Brooks (could add Dante)

I mean is there any reason that front court cannot improve? A senior, junior and sophomore...and we cannot expect improvement? We will start a sophomore Hagans, sophomore Montgomery, and Junior Richards. 3 of those 5 will already have chemistry playing with each other...no starting over. The 6th man Quickley is a 5-star talent who is returning for another year. The 6/7th man and only big off the bench Sestina is a 5th year senior.

This roster will have 5 players that have played major minutes and started games in Division 1 basketball...2 upperclassmen. 5 of your top 7 players won't be freshman. 8 of your top 9 were all top 35 recruits. Sestina is the only player who wasn't a highly rated recruit nor a draft prospect...but was the #2 grad transfer who we just need off the bench. Add in 4 more high level recruits (Maxey, Whitney, Brooks, Juzang) who will give us a roster of 9 players who can all play with Allen as the 10th man.

Adding Dante could eliminate a lot of concerns...but this is still a very talented/experienced roster in a down year.

 

[weatherbird]

And you made the correct point...

It's not having the guys that can hit the most shots....but having a team of guys who know how to take THE RIGHT SHOT. 2011 and 2012 were the best teams from that end. It starts with good backcourt and wing players. Liggins, Miller, and Harrelson weren't the stars...but they were all talented enough as multi-year guys to guide them through the rough patches. 2016...Ulis was amazing to carry that team where he did...but not any experienced scoring options around him. This year just has the experienced guys and the usual talented cast of players.

I see this as a hybrid of 2011 and 2016. Enough experience from older players (Miller, Liggins, Harrelson -> Hagans, Richards, EJ, Sestina, Quickley) and backcourt experience/talent like 2016 (Ulis, Murray, Briscoe, Matthews, Hawkins -> Hagans, Maxey, Quickley, Juzang, Whitney).

The similar part...questions in the front court...
2011: Harrelson, Jones, & Vargas
2016: Skal, Lee, Willis, Poythress(post ACL), Hump
2020: Richards, Montgomery, Sestina, & Brooks (could add Dante)

I mean is there any reason that front court cannot improve? A senior, junior and sophomore...and we cannot expect improvement? We will start a sophomore Hagans, sophomore Montgomery, and Junior Richards. 3 of those 5 will already have chemistry playing with each other...no starting over. The 6th man Quickley is a 5-star talent who is returning for another year. The 6/7th man and only big off the bench Sestina is a 5th year senior.

This roster will have 5 players that have played major minutes and started games in Division 1 basketball...2 upperclassmen. 5 of your top 7 players won't be freshman. 8 of your top 9 were all top 35 recruits. Sestina is the only player who wasn't a highly rated recruit nor a draft prospect...but was the #2 grad transfer who we just need off the bench. Add in 4 more high level recruits (Maxey, Whitney, Brooks, Juzang) who will give us a roster of 9 players who can all play with Allen as the 10th man.

Adding Dante could eliminate a lot of concerns...but this is still a very talented/experienced roster in a down year.

And really, the other issue is that we as fans try to project team success by comparing players of the current team to players of past teams in terms of production and such. But each player is different, and will ultimately provide different things to the team. We dont need to try to replace a Herro or a PJ with a single player at each position, we need to find 5 guys that play well together, make the right plays on the offensive end, and are able to contain their counterpart on the defensive end.

Who really knows how good EJ would have been at the end of the year if PJ doesnt come back?? What does EJ look like if it is him playing 30 minutes a game. We likely struggle a little more early in the season, but we may have faired better in March, as EJ learns what it takes to compete at this level and expands his game. We actually get the best of both worlds now, as EJ has played enough to know what it's like and what it takes, so we may get to experience EJ at much closer to his potential than we would have if he would have played 30 minutes a game last year, as he probably wouldnt be on this roster.