2019-20 Roster Analysis & Projection

[DerekMcPwn]

With the Blackshear question answered, we can begin to develop a realistic picture of next season. Below are some thoughts.

1. This is, once again, a Calipari team that will struggle shooting the ball, and would have struggled even if the three-point line hadn’t been extended.

2. This roster may struggle with scoring in general. Most of the individual players project as tremendous athletes, defenders, and glue guys. Few are regarded as “buckets,” or even primary scoring options.

3. This team has the potential to be defensively elite. The length and athleticism across all positions stands out, and the team has gritty locker room leadership.

4. The team’s depth is very sound. Assuming realistic role flexibility, the depth by position is:

PG: 3
SG: 4
SF: 4
PF: 3
C: 3

In few past seasons has the roster been this evenly distributed.

5. Compared to previous teams, the roster most resembles 2017-18, but with several important upgrades to experience and guard depth.

6. There are a lot of question marks. In most seasons, we’ve had some good idea about what to expect. We all knew we were about to watch something special in 2014-15. We knew 2016-17’s backcourt would be electric; we knew PJ Washington would lead the team and be its best player in 2018-19. This year, it’s hard to say. The leading scorer could be any one of four players, and the starting lineup could easily include any of eight or nine different players.

7. This looks like an Elite Eight team, with anywhere from 6-10 losses during the regular season. A team with that kind of ability has as good of a chance as any other team to win a championship, but Kentucky doesn’t appear to have the separation from the pack that invites preseason Final Four or championship guarantees.

 

[morgousky]

A lot depends on the reclass. I seriously think he could provide inside defense that could make UK crazy good.

 

[akaukswoosh]

but Kentucky doesn’t appear to have the separation from the pack that invites preseason Final Four or championship guarantees.

Just having two experienced sophomore PGs, never had that before under Cal, might be a bigger factor in our success than many expect.

 

[DerekMcPwn]

Just having two experienced sophomore PGs, never had that before under Cal, might be a bigger factor in our success than many expect.

Maybe. I’m certainly expecting us to start stronger than last year. But even with good experience, a point guard who can’t shoot seems to create a ceiling for his team. It was insurmountable for John Wall and De’Aaron Fox, I expect it to be a problem with Hagans.

 

[Backer cutter]

With the seemingly quality depth at all positions, looks to me to be a little better pressing, run and gun type team, although Cal seems a little reluctant to go that way mostly, time will tell i guess

 

[Drcats2025]

Call me crazy, but I think shooting will be solid for us next year. I expect Hagans to improve vastly, as he has a nice shot, and for Maxey to be really good from deep. 37% range with the line moved back. With the unusual amount of returnees and top 3 backcourt, 4-7 loss team next year, in my opinion. Top 5 team all season.

 

[The Independent]

With the Blackshear question answered, we can begin to develop a realistic picture of next season. Below are some thoughts.

1. This is, once again, a Calipari team that will struggle shooting the ball, and would have struggled even if the three-point line hadn’t been extended.

2. This roster may struggle with scoring in general. Most of the individual players project as tremendous athletes, defenders, and glue guys. Few are regarded as “buckets,” or even primary scoring options.

3. This team has the potential to be defensively elite. The length and athleticism across all positions stands out, and the team has gritty locker room leadership.

4. The team’s depth is very sound. Assuming realistic role flexibility, the depth by position is:

PG: 3
SG: 4
SF: 4
PF: 3
C: 3

In few past seasons has the roster been this evenly distributed.

5. Compared to previous teams, the roster most resembles 2017-18, but with several important upgrades to experience and guard depth.

6. There are a lot of question marks. In most seasons, we’ve had some good idea about what to expect. We all knew we were about to watch something special in 2014-15. We knew 2016-17’s backcourt would be electric; we knew PJ Washington would lead the team and be its best player in 2018-19. This year, it’s hard to say. The leading scorer could be any one of four players, and the starting lineup could easily include any of eight or nine different players.

7. This looks like an Elite Eight team, with anywhere from 6-10 losses during the regular season. A team with that kind of ability has as good of a chance as any other team to win a championship, but Kentucky doesn’t appear to have the separation from the pack that invites preseason Final Four or championship guarantees.

Some of these conclusions are off base. In college ball, your offense depends on athletic perimeter players, but a strong defense depends on having athletic bigs and limiting opponents to one shot. This team will have a lot of scorers, and will play uptempo. But defense could be a problem because Richards is always in foul trouble and Sestina will be challenged at this level on the defensive end of the floor. This team does not resemble 2017-18, because it is much quicker and more likely to want to play in transition. How good this team will be in March, that remains to be seen.

 

[STL_Cat]

Call me crazy, but I think shooting will be solid for us next year. I expect Hagans to improve vastly, as he has a nice shot, and for Maxey to be really good from deep. 37% range with the line moved back. With the unusual amount of returnees and top 3 backcourt, 4-7 loss team next year, in my opinion. Top 5 team all season.

I think this is an unrealistic expectation. This team will no doubt at some point struggle, lose a couple and drop out of the top 10. Probably stay within the top 15 all year. I think it’s unrealistic to think this team will at no point during the season fall out of the top 5. How many of Cal’s teams here have done that? 2 maybe?

 

[UKCat67]

My projection is :
Maxey will be my favorite player

 

[Colonial Farm 80]

This team will go as far as Montgomery, Whitney, Maxey, and Hagans take it. All the other players are role players. They will contribute, but they are not as important as the first four.

 

[Drcats2025]

I think this is an unrealistic expectation. This team will no doubt at some point struggle, lose a couple and drop out of the top 10. Probably stay within the top 15 all year. I think it’s unrealistic to think this team will at no point during the season fall out of the top 5. How many of Cal’s teams here have done that? 2 maybe?

Well I meant for the most part. They may drop out of the top 5 a time or two but won’t stay out long. If not, it’s fine. It wouldn’t change my outlook. I hate when people say “unrealistic expectations” like one is putting pressure on the players. Im just a guy with an opinion, and I like this years team.

 

[wcc31]

Maybe. I’m certainly expecting us to start stronger than last year. But even with good experience, a point guard who can’t shoot seems to create a ceiling for his team. It was insurmountable for John Wall and De’Aaron Fox, I expect it to be a problem with Hagans.

That was the reason those teams lost? Ok

 

[MWes11]

I actually think this will be one of the better shooting teams of the Cal era. IQ, Maxey, Juzang, and Sestina are all above average shooters, imo. Hoping with another year Hagans becomes a serviceable shooter, Whitney/Brooks will be wildcards behind the arc but if they can at least be somewhat of a threat, it will open up the court for our athleticism to take over. Should be fun.

 

[Cobb4uk_rivals287622]

With the Blackshear question answered, we can begin to develop a realistic picture of next season. Below are some thoughts.

1. This is, once again, a Calipari team that will struggle shooting the ball, and would have struggled even if the three-point line hadn’t been extended.

2. This roster may struggle with scoring in general. Most of the individual players project as tremendous athletes, defenders, and glue guys. Few are regarded as “buckets,” or even primary scoring options.

3. This team has the potential to be defensively elite. The length and athleticism across all positions stands out, and the team has gritty locker room leadership.

4. The team’s depth is very sound. Assuming realistic role flexibility, the depth by position is:

PG: 3
SG: 4
SF: 4
PF: 3
C: 3

In few past seasons has the roster been this evenly distributed.

5. Compared to previous teams, the roster most resembles 2017-18, but with several important upgrades to experience and guard depth.

6. There are a lot of question marks. In most seasons, we’ve had some good idea about what to expect. We all knew we were about to watch something special in 2014-15. We knew 2016-17’s backcourt would be electric; we knew PJ Washington would lead the team and be its best player in 2018-19. This year, it’s hard to say. The leading scorer could be any one of four players, and the starting lineup could easily include any of eight or nine different players.

7. This looks like an Elite Eight team, with anywhere from 6-10 losses during the regular season. A team with that kind of ability has as good of a chance as any other team to win a championship, but Kentucky doesn’t appear to have the separation from the pack that invites preseason Final Four or championship guarantees.

Defense will be the key to this team. Moving the 3 point line back will allow our guards to push competitions guards out even further to get into their offense, which will lower their field goal %.

I disagree about the 3 point shooting. We have a more complete/rounded shooters in the back court, wing, and front court. It's going to be a chore to defend this team.

 

[mjj_2K]

Whitney and Brooks. It's going to come down to them.

I'm pretty confident that Hagans/Maxey/Quickley/ and Juzang as a combo 2/3 will be solid. Where UK can separate from the pack is if Whitney and Brooks are real impact guys, because very few college teams have versatile forwards with that kind of size and athleticism. But "versatile" means able to hit shots and contribute offensively beyond just cleaning up garbage and the occasional dunk. Whether those 2 can do that as freshmen is the big question.

If not, it's possible Juzang could take on a big scoring role, if he proves good enough on D, and that would also cover some of the same ground. Regardless, UK is going to need a forward who can put points on the board and be a match-up nightmare.

 

[E Cat]

I'm always confident Cal will develop the team into a really good defensive unit. I'm equally always concerned about putting up enough points at tourney time. That's been a major issue past two seasons. Seems if you take away the high ball screen and P&R, our offense just dies at tourney time. Some may be scheme, some youth.

That said, I think this team can be as successful as last season (schedule doesn't appear as daunting). Enough talent to be title contender. If chemistry good and some of the freshmen are better than advertised (like a Herro), then we'll be right there for chance at 9.

 

[Dablueman]

I actually think this will be one of the better shooting teams of the Cal era. IQ, Maxey, Juzang, and Sestina are all above average shooters, imo. Hoping with another year Hagans becomes a serviceable shooter, Whitney/Brooks will be wildcards behind the arc but if they can at least be somewhat of a threat, it will open up the court for our athleticism to take over. Should be fun.

Yes this was wondering myself why the OP seems to think this team will struggle offensively? We lost one good outside shooter that saw any kind of clock. Lost another who never played enough to get into a groove here so never actually shot it well statistically here. We lost Washington who was a solid outside shooter. We bring back a pg who if anything his percentages should get better. A back up guard who was a solid 3 point shooter last season. To replace Herro we bring in a comparable if not potentially better shooter in Juzang. To replace KJ we bring in Brooks and Whitley who should be able to match last seasons 3 point shooting of KJ. We bring in Sestina who has already showed he is a solid 3 point threat in division one from the 4/5 position to replace Washington. We bring in a 4star in state shooter who before his injury was headed up the rankings to replace the baker transfer. Then throw in Maxey who can bring in shooting to both guard positions with very little loss defensively! So we bring in more shooting then we lose. So with out our returning guys getting any better but they will particularly Hagans who just needs confidence. Hell the better shot selection that comes with experience alone will increase percentages. Let alone any training they do. That’s is what is scary about this group he can put all kinds of crazy matchups on the floor and not sweat foul trouble defensively because of depth. If this team can shoot at all they will be scary good cause defensively they may be the best in the country. So I am curious why op seems to think we will be poor offensively?

 

[wcc31]

Johnson, Washington and Herro were all good shooters. So 3- we lost 3.

 

[CatsPaws270]

As I put earlier...there have only been 3 teams in the Cal era that lost 10 games and look at their guard play...

2013- RS So. Harrow, Fr. Goodwin, GT Mays,
2014-Fr. Harrison, Fr. Harrison, Fr. Young, Fr. Hawkins
2018-Fr. Green, Fr. Diallo, Fr. Alexander

2020-So. Hagans, So. Quickley, Fr. Maxey, Fr. Juzang

Guard play moves the needle. I think last year our inexperience at guard limited our ceiling in March, same as Duke and Carolina. Auburn, UVA, Gonzaga, and TTech all had good guard play.

 

[DerekMcPwn]

Yes this was wondering myself why the OP seems to think this team will struggle offensively? We lost one good outside shooter that saw any kind of clock. Lost another who never played enough to get into a groove here so never actually shot it well statistically here. We lost Washington who was a solid outside shooter. We bring back a pg who if anything his percentages should get better. A back up guard who was a solid 3 point shooter last season. To replace Herro we bring in a comparable if not potentially better shooter in Juzang. To replace KJ we bring in Brooks and Whitley who should be able to match last seasons 3 point shooting of KJ. We bring in Sestina who has already showed he is a solid 3 point threat in division one from the 4/5 position to replace Washington. We bring in a 4star in state shooter who before his injury was headed up the rankings to replace the baker transfer. Then throw in Maxey who can bring in shooting to both guard positions with very little loss defensively! So we bring in more shooting then we lose. So with out our returning guys getting any better but they will particularly Hagans who just needs confidence. Hell the better shot selection that comes with experience alone will increase percentages. Let alone any training they do. That’s is what is scary about this group he can put all kinds of crazy matchups on the floor and not sweat foul trouble defensively because of depth. If this team can shoot at all they will be scary good cause defensively they may be the best in the country. So I am curious why op seems to think we will be poor offensively?

Washington, Travis, Johnson, and Herro represented a strong majority of our scoring and PJ/KJ/Herro accounted for an even larger percentage of our three-point scoring. PJ shot better than 40%, KJ shot right around 40%, and Tyler was money all over the floor.

You may not remember, but there were games where Washington or Herro absolutely carried us for extended stretches, PJ because he was unstoppable in the low post and Tyler because he was an unconscious jump shooter.

This roster doesn’t have a player like either of those guys. So the question is, does this team have something that the last roster didn’t have that should lead us to believe we won’t need guys like Washington or Herro to bail us out when the rest of the team goes stone cold? I’m having a hard time seeing anything in our frontcourt reaching Washington/Travis levels of consistency, and I don’t see wing jump shooting production like what we got from Keldon/Herro.

This team could win as many games as last year’s, but it will have to do it with its defense.

 

[Drcats2025]

Washington, Travis, Johnson, and Herro represented a strong majority of our scoring and PJ/KJ/Herro accounted for an even larger percentage of our three-point scoring. PJ shot better than 40%, KJ shot right around 40%, and Tyler was money all over the floor.

You may not remember, but there were games where Washington or Herro absolutely carried us for extended stretches, PJ because he was unstoppable in the low post and Tyler because he was an unconscious jump shooter.

This roster doesn’t have a player like either of those guys. So the question is, does this team have something that the last roster didn’t have that should lead us to believe we won’t need guys like Washington or Herro to bail us out when the rest of the team goes stone cold? I’m having a hard time seeing anything in our frontcourt reaching Washington/Travis levels of consistency, and I don’t see wing jump shooting production like what we got from Keldon/Herro.

This team could win as many games as last year’s, but it will have to do it with its defense.

I’m not sure why you’re quick to say this team doesn’t have a player of Herro’s caliber; a player that could carry us. Maxey could be as good or better than Herro was. Washington will be hard to replace, but I think 1-3 could be quite a bit better than last years, best in the country possibly, and 4-5 more than solid as well.

 

[wcc31]

Maxey could easily match Herro’s shooting and scoring. 35% from three.

 

[DerekMcPwn]

I’m not sure why you’re quick to say this team doesn’t have a player of Herro’s caliber. A player that could carry us. Maxey could be as good or better than Herro was. Washington will be hard to replace, but I think 1-3 could be quite a bit better than last years, best in the country possibly, and 4-5 more than solid as well.

I try to communicate by choosing a few words precisely, which often results in confusion (the opposite of my goal).

I never said the roster won’t have a player of Herro’s caliber; I said we won’t have a player like PJ or Herro. Maxey could end up being a better player than Herro, but I seriously doubt it would be because he shoots as well as Herro. It is much more likely that Maxey will not shoot as well, but might defend better, pass better, and handle the ball better. If that turns out to be true, it would support my position, because Maxey, one of our most offensively gifted incoming players, is inferior to the guy he’s replacing as a shooter, which is the most important role of a two-guard.

I also do not believe any player on the roster will produce at the level of sophomore PJ Washington. If you disagree with that, which player do you see as his equal?

 

[CatsPaws270]

Washington, Travis, Johnson, and Herro represented a strong majority of our scoring and PJ/KJ/Herro accounted for an even larger percentage of our three-point scoring. PJ shot better than 40%, KJ shot right around 40%, and Tyler was money all over the floor.

You may not remember, but there were games where Washington or Herro absolutely carried us for extended stretches, PJ because he was unstoppable in the low post and Tyler because he was an unconscious jump shooter.

This roster doesn’t have a player like either of those guys. So the question is, does this team have something that the last roster didn’t have that should lead us to believe we won’t need guys like Washington or Herro to bail us out when the rest of the team goes stone cold? I’m having a hard time seeing anything in our frontcourt reaching Washington/Travis levels of consistency, and I don’t see wing jump shooting production like what we got from Keldon/Herro.

Now, this team could win as many games as last year’s, but it will have to do it with its defense.

Tyler Herro and Keldon Johnson the last 3 games in the tournament...

Herro:
11.7 ppg, 4 apg, 4 rpg
12 of 35, 35% FG
3 of 14, 22% from 3

Johnson:
10.0 ppg, 2.3 apg, 7rpg
10 of 23, 44% FG
2 of 10, 20% from 3

That had a lot to do with with them being freshman guards who just were too tired and didn't have the tournament experience to finish off the season at a high level.

They were volume scorers....and if they weren't scoring...they weren't doing much else. They were pretty bad defenders. They both would get tired. Keldon would just disappear at times. They weren't consistent scorers either. Add that with a freshman Hagans running the point and freshman Quickley as the backup?

Now? We have a returning point guard who just played in overtime of an elite 8. His backup who was a 5-star out of high school. A projected lottery pick in Maxey. Another blue chipper in Juzang. Whitney is a versatile piece on the wing.

-2020 Hagans/Quickley >>>>> 2019 Hagans/Quickley, big difference. Everyone else on the team will be a better player with a better and more experienced point guard, who is the team leader. Players will get better shots....they both will scare opponents with their ability to score.

-Maxey >/= Herro. I just see Maxey being more versatile and consistent.

Brooks/Whitney/Juzang = Johnson? I mean...can they lockup their man and hit a consistent jumper? I don't think there's a big gap. More options. More shooting on the wing.


Deeper, more experienced, better defense, and better shooting. We will miss PJ, but our backcourt will be light-years ahead.

 

[bucsrule8872]

Shooting is a concern to me as well. Especially, with the starting lineup most people are expecting.

G Hagans- 27.5% from 3 last year.
G Maxey- good shooter, should be our top shooting option.
F Whitney- decent shooter, should be our second shooting option.
F Montgomery- 20% from 3 last year.
F Richards- doesn't shoot the 3.

Now that lineup does not scream "you better guard us as soon as we cross halfcourt" does it? That lineup sees lots and lots of zone. Hopefully, Hagans and Montgomery improve as shooters and Maxey and Whitney can make shots.

But, all of our reserves are good shooters.

G Quickley- 34.5% from 3 last year.
G Juzang- one of the best shooters coming out of HS.
F Allen- good shooter before the knee injury.
F Brooks- good shooter.
F Sestina- 38% from 3 last year.

Cal probably goes to the bench for some shooting when we see a lot of zone. We might also see a guy like Juzang or Brooks starting in order to spread the defense a little more.

 

[DerekMcPwn]

Tyler Herro and Keldon Johnson the last 3 games in the tournament...

Herro:
11.7 ppg, 4 apg, 4 rpg
12 of 35, 35% FG
3 of 14, 22% from 3

Johnson:
10.0 ppg, 2.3 apg, 7rpg
10 of 23, 44% FG
2 of 10, 20% from 3

That had a lot to do with with them being freshman guards who just were too tired and didn't have the tournament experience to finish off the season at a high level.

They were volume scorers....and if they weren't scoring...they weren't doing much else. They were pretty bad defenders. They both would get tired. Keldon would just disappear at times. They weren't consistent scorers either. Add that with a freshman Hagans running the point and freshman Quickley as the backup?

Now? We have a returning point guard who just played in overtime of an elite 8. His backup who was a 5-star out of high school. A projected lottery pick in Maxey. Another blue chipper in Juzang. Whitney is a versatile piece on the wing.

-2020 Hagans/Quickley >>>>> 2019 Hagans/Quickley, big difference. Everyone else on the team will be a better player with a better and more experienced point guard, who is the team leader. Players will get better shots....they both will scare opponents with their ability to score.

-Maxey >/= Herro. I just see Maxey being more versatile and consistent.

Brooks/Whitney/Juzang = Johnson? I mean...can they lockup their man and hit a consistent jumper? I don't think there's a big gap. More options. More shooting on the wing.


Deeper, more experienced, better defense, and better shooting. We will miss PJ, but our backcourt will be light-years ahead.

I’m confident you’re underestimating the value of Reid Travis because you didn’t mention him.

I’m also confident that you’re underestimating the value of having a shooter that goes red hot every few games. As with Malik Monk, there were several games that Herro carried us by being able to create his own shot outside the flow of the offense, games where anything short of that meant a loss. Not every player has even one of those games in a career. It takes a special player to do it, and it changes your opponent’s scouting.

Also, don’t misunderstand the bigger picture. I predicted this team could make an Elite Eight, which is pretty darn good. I never said it would be bad or disappointing or anything like that. I just said that I anticipate some struggles on offense. Haven’t read anything yet that makes me rethink that position.

 

[CatsPaws270]

I’m confident you’re underestimating the value of Reid Travis because you didn’t mention him.

I’m also confident that you’re underestimating the value of having a shooter that goes red hot every few games. As with Malik Monk, there were several games that Herro carried us by being able to create his own shot outside the flow of the offense, games where anything short of that meant a loss. Not every player has even one of those games in a career. It takes a special player to do it, and it changes your opponent’s scouting.

Also, don’t misunderstand the bigger picture. I predicted this team could make an Elite Eight, which is pretty darn good. I never said it would be bad or disappointing or anything like that. I just said that I anticipate some struggles on offense. Haven’t read anything yet that makes me rethink that position.

I was only talking about the backcourt. Which I'm saying will be better.

I'm just showing that guard play is more important to team success, especially PG play. Yes...we will miss PJ in the frontcourt...but his impact and leadership can be replaced at point guard.

Seeing pictures of Hagans and how he looks way stronger....he can be the PJ Washington of this team from a leadership and two-way impact. If he can just get around 34-35% from 3....he will be complete. His turnovers will be down and his control of the offense will be way better. He will be an All-American defender with better strength and conditioning.

I do worry about the front court because it's an unknown....but I trust Calipari. EJ just never got a chance to get in a rhythm. Nick had the 2nd best +/- on the team and was far and away the most impactful defender from a numbers perspective. Just add a bit of consistency and Nick is serviceable. We will now have a Junior and a Sophomore starting...returning players get better. The bigger/strong players that pushed them around the last 2 years graduated....and now they are the bigger strong and more experienced bigs going against the younger players that remain. I mean....Reid Travis as a sophomore probably wasn't scaring anyone...but his body and experience just put him ahead.

And who knows? Throw in Sestina as a wildcard for 10-15 minutes a night and you never know? Maybe Dante?

If Hagans can create havoc on the perimeter....Nick and EJ's length scaring teams from going inside....that's the recipe for a top defensive team in the country. Who will be longer and faster than us? I mean Louisville is top 5 and they don't even have a point guard...imagine what happens when they get shutdown by Ashton?

 

[fisherscat]

The great thing about next year will be the returning guys. UK has 3 MCDAA players and their starting PG returning, not to mention Sestina. Not sure we can ask for anything more considering the roster turnover that happens every year.

The question is whether those returning players are good enough to contribute at a high level. Not sure there is a Lamb or Jones or Miller or even a Harrison or WCS level player in that group. Cats need at least one or two of those guys to take a big leap forward.

 

[Bungalow Bill]

If any of our freshman guards are as good as Herro we're in good shape. I hope everyone that thinks Maxey will be able to give us what TH gave us is right but I'll have to see it to believe. Nothing against Maxey but freshman guards playing like Herro are rare in college ball. Herro was very skilled for a kid that young. I think Pat Riley agrees.

 

[Drcats2025]

I try to communicate by choosing a few words precisely, which often results in confusion (the opposite of my goal).

I never said the roster won’t have a player of Herro’s caliber; I said we won’t have a player like PJ or Herro. Maxey could end up being a better player than Herro, but I seriously doubt it would be because he shoots as well as Herro. It is much more likely that Maxey will not shoot as well, but might defend better, pass better, and handle the ball better. If that turns out to be true, it would support my position, because Maxey, one of our most offensively gifted incoming players, is inferior to the guy he’s replacing as a shooter, which is the most important role of a two-guard.

I also do not believe any player on the roster will produce at the level of sophomore PJ Washington. If you disagree with that, which player do you see as his equal?

Man, I don’t know. At 35% from three, I feel like it’s a stretch to definitely say Maxey won’t shoot at that rate. PJ I’ll give you. No one is replacing that, but they also don’t have to. You go as far as your guards take you in today’s game, and I will take ours over anyone’s, with Michigan State as the only viable exception.

 

[CatsPaws270]

The great thing about next year will be the returning guys. UK has 3 MCDAA players and their starting PG returning, not to mention Sestina. Not sure we can ask for anything more considering the roster turnover that happens every year.

The question is whether those returning players are good enough to contribute at a high level. Not sure there is a Lamb or Jones or Miller or even a Harrison or WCS level player in that group. Cats need at least one or two of those guys to take a big leap forward.

Hagans showed mid-year what he can do at a high level. He can shut a team down. Has a jumper that needs a little work but it was way ahead of PJ's as a freshman....but most of all he needed was to be stronger and faster.

He's a year older and experienced playing point guard in OT of the Elite 8. Not to mention a Sweet 16 game that went down to the wire and a hard fought R32 game against Wofford. He got to see a high level Duke team, won at the YUM Center, beat Kansas, beat #1 Tennessee, a loss on the road at #1 UT, and played through every tough SEC road t-shirt night(including a return to his home state where he balled out).

He didn't get there until the end of the summer last year. He now has a full summer to workout to go with a full year of running the point. His skill and talent aren't in question. He's experienced, he will be be in way better shape, and his game will be more consistent as a 2nd year player.

Hagans is going to be remembered as having one of the best years in the Cal era.

And what else
5-star Junior Nick Richards
5-star Sophomore EJ Montgomery
5-star sophomore Immanuel Quickley
Senior Grad Transfer Nate Sestina (rated #2 GT)

And the #2 Recruiting class?
5-star top 10 Tyrese Maxey
5-star top 10 Khalil Whitney
5-star Keion Brooks
Top 35 Johnny Juzang
And 4-star Dontaie Allen


That's plenty of talent. Plenty of size. Plenty of experience. Plenty of depth all around. Plenty of different skill sets. If you don't feel good about this team, you don't feel good about Calipari. I trust Calipari, that's why UK pays him the big money. Players come back and get better...maybe they won't? But I trust our Hall of Fame coach to get it right.

 

[CatsPaws270]

If any of our freshman guards are as good as Herro we're in good shape. I hope everyone that thinks Maxey will be able to give us what TH gave us is right but I'll have to see it to believe. Nothing against Maxey but freshman guards playing like Herro are rare in college ball. Herro was very skilled for a kid that young. I think Pat Riley agrees.

Herro, the great shooter that carried us at times? He has great potential...but his good press from the draft is giving us revisionist history, he really was an inconsistent volume scorer.

He shot 7 for 25 from 3 during tournament time, 28%. 7 total 3-pointers in 6 games.

He shot 3 for 16 from 3 in the NCAA tournament, 19%. 3 total 3-pointers in 4 games.

The big 3 against Houston..his only make of the game. The hard defense against Wofford? Made him too tired to be effective on offense.

Big regular season games?
Duke: 14 points, 4 of 11 FGs, 1 of 6 from 3
UNC: 15 points, 6 of 17 FGs, 3 of 9 from 3
UofL: 24 points, 10 of 13 FGs, 4 of 6 from 3
@Aub: 20 points, 6 of 12 FGs, 3 of 6 from 3
Kansas: 6 points, 2 of 9 FGs, 0 of 4 from 3
LSU: 12 points, 5 of 13 FGs, 3 of 8 from 3
#1 UT: 15 points, 3 of 11 FGs, 2 of 8 from 3
AUB: 17 points, 6 of 12 FGs, 3 of 6 from 3
@UT: 6 points, 2 of 11 FGs, 2 of 6 from 3

So he was a no-show in the tournament and against UT, Duke, and Kansas. He stepped up against an un-ranked UofL. He did great against Auburn(not in the tournament though)

He was one of the worst defenders on the team and that cannot be debated. He really wasn't a ball handler that could make people around him better. He was really good at hitting free throws...but was only 4th on the team in attempts and makes. He actually rated at the bottom of the team in free throw attempt rate...so that really minimized his best skill by being the worst on the team at drawing fouls(analytically speaking).

He was only effective if he was hitting shots...which he really didn't hit shots at all that high of a rate. If he wasn't scoring...he wasn't adding much else. All we needed in the tournament was one guard to step up and complement PJ. Keldon and Herro were silent...Ashton turned the ball over.

This is not a hate Tyler Herro post. I think Herro will be a great NBA player and we did not see his best ball at Kentucky...but don't act like a top 10 player like Tyrese Maxey has such a high bar to reach for Herro...He's not as good of a shooter...but he's better at creating his own shot and a good enough 3 point shooter. If Maxey is at 34-35% from deep...and is better on defense and at driving the lane....I just don't see us missing Herro that much.

 

[Titpwhami2014]

Guys we had no idea would be as good as they were: Bledsoe, Harrellson (SR), Booker, Gilgeous-Alexander, Herro

Guys we thought were going to be great but underwhelmed as FR: Poythress, Briscoe, Gabriel, Diallo, Montgomery

I don’t feel as comfortable projecting players as I once did. It’s not inconceivable that a Juzang or Allen (if healthy) emerge as a go-to scorer by March. They are solid talents.

It’s also possible Montgomery and Richards don’t improve, and Sestina is Eloy Vargas 2.0

We just don’t know. But it’s fun to project.

 

[jrpross_rivals]

I think this is an unrealistic expectation. This team will no doubt at some point struggle, lose a couple and drop out of the top 10. Probably stay within the top 15 all year. I think it’s unrealistic to think this team will at no point during the season fall out of the top 5. How many of Cal’s teams here have done that? 2 maybe?

I actually think this team may not start as slow as some others because of the returning experience. 5 non-freshmen will be logging major minutes. Without looking, I’d guess that’s the most of any Cal team besides 2015. Some of the freshmen growing pains may be offset by that. I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t drop much throughout the year.

 

[Bungalow Bill]

Herro, the great shooter that carried us at times? He has great potential...but his good press from the draft is giving us revisionist history, he really was an inconsistent volume scorer.

He shot 7 for 25 from 3 during tournament time, 28%. 7 total 3-pointers in 6 games.

He shot 3 for 16 from 3 in the NCAA tournament, 19%. 3 total 3-pointers in 4 games.

The big 3 against Houston..his only make of the game. The hard defense against Wofford? Made him too tired to be effective on offense.

Big regular season games?
Duke: 14 points, 4 of 11 FGs, 1 of 6 from 3
UNC: 15 points, 6 of 17 FGs, 3 of 9 from 3
UofL: 24 points, 10 of 13 FGs, 4 of 6 from 3
@Aub: 20 points, 6 of 12 FGs, 3 of 6 from 3
Kansas: 6 points, 2 of 9 FGs, 0 of 4 from 3
LSU: 12 points, 5 of 13 FGs, 3 of 8 from 3
#1 UT: 15 points, 3 of 11 FGs, 2 of 8 from 3
AUB: 17 points, 6 of 12 FGs, 3 of 6 from 3
@UT: 6 points, 2 of 11 FGs, 2 of 6 from 3

So he was a no-show in the tournament and against UT, Duke, and Kansas. He stepped up against an un-ranked UofL. He did great against Auburn(not in the tournament though)

He was one of the worst defenders on the team and that cannot be debated. He really wasn't a ball handler that could make people around him better. He was really good at hitting free throws...but was only 4th on the team in attempts and makes. He actually rated at the bottom of the team in free throw attempt rate...so that really minimized his best skill by being the worst on the team at drawing fouls(analytically speaking).

He was only effective if he was hitting shots...which he really didn't hit shots at all that high of a rate. If he wasn't scoring...he wasn't adding much else. All we needed in the tournament was one guard to step up and complement PJ. Keldon and Herro were silent...Ashton turned the ball over.

This is not a hate Tyler Herro post. I think Herro will be a great NBA player and we did not see his best ball at Kentucky...but don't act like a top 10 player like Tyrese Maxey has such a high bar to reach for Herro...He's not as good of a shooter...but he's better at creating his own shot and a good enough 3 point shooter. If Maxey is at 34-35% from deep...and is better on defense and at driving the lane....I just don't see us missing Herro that much.

None of your post changes what I said. If any of our freshmen guards are as good as Herro was last year we're going to be really good because this years frosh are going to have a lot more experience around them. If he was one of the worst defenders on the team why did he always get the assignment to guard the opponents best guard? 7-25 in the tourney means teams game planned to stop him as evidenced by only 4.17 3 point attempts per game. Funny how you only mention his scoring when he led us in minutes most games, had 4.5 rebounds per game, was second in assists and assist to turnover ratio, second on the team in steals and even had twice as many blocks as Keldon. All this while shooting 93.5% from the foul line and being the only player that started every game. Committed only 47 fouls in those 37 games that he played 32.6 minutes/per.
To say Tyrese Maxey is better at creating his own shot before he has played one game against college competition is a guess by you and I hope you're right because Herro had a nice step back and midrange game to go with a nice floater. You and I watched different guys I guess . Herro was the best basketball player on the team last year IMO and it really wasn't close.

 

[chroix]

Allen put up numbers like Herro did his senior year of HS. The new squad make a little longer to gel but I bet when they click it’s real fun to watch.

 

[ksharpless]

Washington, Travis, Johnson, and Herro represented a strong majority of our scoring and PJ/KJ/Herro accounted for an even larger percentage of our three-point scoring. PJ shot better than 40%, KJ shot right around 40%, and Tyler was money all over the floor.

You may not remember, but there were games where Washington or Herro absolutely carried us for extended stretches, PJ because he was unstoppable in the low post and Tyler because he was an unconscious jump shooter.

This roster doesn’t have a player like either of those guys. So the question is, does this team have something that the last roster didn’t have that should lead us to believe we won’t need guys like Washington or Herro to bail us out when the rest of the team goes stone cold? I’m having a hard time seeing anything in our frontcourt reaching Washington/Travis levels of consistency, and I don’t see wing jump shooting production like what we got from Keldon/Herro.

This team could win as many games as last year’s, but it will have to do it with its defense.

Herro was not an unconscious shooter last year lol. He barely shot 35%. He was valuable cause he could get hot but more importantly because he did a lot of other things well. Look at him in the summer league. He’s had two games where he went like 2-10, 1-9 from 3 but he’s still being talked about because he scores and impacts the games other ways.

 

[ksharpless]

We’ll be straight on Offense.


1. This team should have more space. Rule change and better guards than last year.

2. Ya’ll really sleeping on Juzang. He’s full 6’7 and we’ve already been hearing he’s a lot better than anyone thought. He can score on all 3 levels.

3. Maxey is a bucket. Idk what his percentage is gonna be. But he can just score.

4. Keion Brooks is also underrated and can get buckets. Not terrible jump shooter and he’s very skilled (good hands) and active on boards.

5. Ashton will score more. He can pretty much get in the lane at will. He just needed improved decision making on what to do when he got there. But the games he was decisive in the lane, he was very good, and also a damn decent FT shooter who draws contact when he drives.

6. Sestina is known more for offense. And has veteran savvy.

7. Quickley can shoot yo. He was decent and he’s gonna get better.

8. Only ppl I like really don’t want shooting is Whitney and nick Richards. And they’re both good at other things offensively. Slashers/finishers.

Montgomery obv shouldn’t be jacking but I think he’ll be a lot more solid at those 15-18 footers.

 

[DerekMcPwn]

Man, I don’t know. At 35% from three, I feel like it’s a stretch to definitely say Maxey won’t shoot at that rate. PJ I’ll give you. No one is replacing that, but they also don’t have to. You go as far as your guards take you in today’s game, and I will take ours over anyone’s, with Michigan State as the only viable exception.

“35% from 3” ignores a lot, and I think you know that. It ignores Herro’s cold stretch at the beginning of the season, which was almost assuredly due, at least in part, to lack of conditioning and learning his role in the offense. During conference play, Herro shot 42% from 3.

Moreover, I was emphasizing Herro’s value as a shooter, not just a three-point shooter. I’m talking about a guy who could pull up and hit a shot from anywhere at any time, and hit 94% of his free throws. He was a guy that teams had to defend perfectly at all times. I don’t see his replacement on the roster.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

This is why I was so big on adding McDaniels.

We will need guys who can create their own offense in the half court. Maxey can do that; Whitney can do that. Outside of that, everyone else is a maybe.

This could be one of more offensively deficient teams in Cal's time at UK. We can all hope Juzang or Brooks turn into Booker or Herro, but the smart money is that the guys ranked outside the composite top 20 of their respective classes will likely play that way as freshmen.

Retaining Keldon Johnson or adding McDaniels/Blackshear was the key to next year. Our positive note is that the rest of college basketball will be hot garbage next year, giving us a chance at a deep run if a third consistent scorer can arise.