Man what are you talking about? Duval has nothing to do with this discussion. Someone brought up Luke Kennard and I just pointed out even Luke Kennard shot bad from 3 as a freshman even though we know he was a shooter. Once again my point is you never know how someone will shoot in a season
2018 Nike Hoop Summit
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Man what are you talking about? Duval has nothing to do with this discussion. Someone brought up Luke Kennard and I just pointed out even Luke Kennard shot bad from 3 as a freshman even though we know he was a shooter. Once again my point is you never know how someone will shoot in a season
No, you don't. I agree there. I was using Duval as an example. He shot 29% this past season. Luke shot 32% as a freshman. Based on those numbers one could assume on paper they're similar shooters, but anyone who watched knows they're not in the same stratosphere.
My point is that none of the new guys are viewed as efficient shooters. Could one surprise? Sure, but it's not a known strength of any of them. Luke bad shooting as a freshman was a bit of an anomaly....just like a 30% career shooting jumping to 40% could happen, it's unlikely.
But even that can be parsed a little. A guy shooting 35% on 4-6 shots per game, while being closely guarded, is more valuable than a guy shooting 45% on 1.5 attempts per game while not being closely guarded. The first guy, while not shooting a high percentage, is a dangerous shooter. The second is simply a highly opportunistic shooter. The second guy, if he shoots more, will probably see a dramatic decrease in percentage. The first guy can up his attempts per game and probably still shoot a respectable percentage.
You can use that example all you want but if Luke Kennard shot 32% for four years at Duke we wouldn’t be saying he’s a shooter. He would be an average shooter. All that attempts stuff doesn’t matter. Real shooters make shots on a consistent basis like Kennard did as a sophomore.
Obviously not. Believe me, I'm the laaaaaaaaasssttt dude to defend Luke.
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IMO 35% is sort of a floor. That is the bare minimum to be acceptable. If you can shoot 35% on 4+ attempts, you are enough of a threat that opposing teams have to respect you as a shooter and guard you on the three point line. Any lower in percentage or attempts essentially means that you aren't enough of a threat to the point where opposing teams have to guard you. I mean, Bags and Carter shot a ridiculous percentage from 3, for bigs, but opposing teams weren't going to guard them out there. So, despite the high percentage, they weren't enough of a threat to draw defenders away.
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But wings and guards have to be threats from the perimeter, and 35% on 4 attempts is the bare minimum to be that level of necessary threat.
Luke Kennard shot 32% as a freshman but they were mostly tough looks. Every opposing coach made sure that Luke's wide open looks were few and far between.
Duval shot 29% as a freshman on all wide-open looks.
Every opposing coach game planned to give Duval all of the wide open looks he wanted.
Pretty sure Wendell Carter JR shot one of the highest 3 point percentage's that a player has ever had at Duke during a season, would anyone really consider him one of Duke's best shooters ever?
Duval shot 29% as a freshman on all wide-open looks.
Every opposing coach game planned to give Duval all of the wide open looks he wanted.
Pretty sure Wendell Carter JR shot one of the highest 3 point percentage's that a player has ever had at Duke during a season, would anyone really consider him one of Duke's best shooters ever?
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The bottom line is, THIS is probably the most amazing haul of talent K has ever landed, but the reality is, we just don't know what we REALLY have until we get a look at it in motion. With their individual talents and abilities, if they click(gel), they will be trouble for every team they face. If they don't learn to play together and don't learn how to play D, they will still be trouble for many. I like talent but to me, "WILL" is an important aspect. The will to win. And we are saturated with this group. Especially Tre and R.J. Even if we aren't loaded with great shooting ability, I don't see how teams keep our physicality, strength and length away from the rim. Our transition game is going to be insane.
From the little I've seen, the biggest factor in this group will be RJ's desire to win. You can tell from the big games he's been in, he has that killer instinct that guys like Kobe and Michael had. Not saying he's as good as them, but at winning time, you can see he has another level that most guys can't get to.
Our potential lineup reminds me a little bit of the 2004 USA Men's National Team. Loaded with athleticism, quality defenders, and play-makers. But not jump-shooters. Team USA shot 31.4% from 3 as a team. That was the achilles heel that was ever-present. If some of our guys are struggling from deep, Alex O'Connell will have to play 20+ minutes. Doesn't matter how awesome you are at driving and slashing, if you can't hit outside jumpers teams will pack it in the middle and clog up the lane.
Part of that is because of the lofty rankings of this group. But it is a weak class, and is especially weak wrt shooters. I think RJ would be very highly ranked in a lot of classes, but I'm not as certain TJ, Cam, or Zion would be as highly rated in a better class. Top 10, probably, for Cam and Zion, and top 15 for TJ. But our guys are ranked high in part because of the weakness of the overall class.
We can talk about how good each one of these guys are, what their weaknesses are... it's all right now as useless as a midget with a yo-yo.
Bottom line, we're going to have to have PATIENCE, this team may be good from the jump, or they may not get it until later, we are hoping for good results. We have nothing, I mean nothing, to suggest we will be a contender.
We have 3 alphas, then Tre as the distributor. For Duke to be good, they must gel, and not be as concerned with their own stats. We also need them to gel with the returning guys. Our 4 super freshmen can't do it alone. Can't.
Teams win the title. How many times does the team win it that also has the nation's leading scorer? The year Kentucky won it all, Anthony Davis led them in scoring with 14 points a game. That's a balanced team.
K has his hands full, trying to condense multiple years into 6-8 months.
Bottom line, we're going to have to have PATIENCE, this team may be good from the jump, or they may not get it until later, we are hoping for good results. We have nothing, I mean nothing, to suggest we will be a contender.
We have 3 alphas, then Tre as the distributor. For Duke to be good, they must gel, and not be as concerned with their own stats. We also need them to gel with the returning guys. Our 4 super freshmen can't do it alone. Can't.
Teams win the title. How many times does the team win it that also has the nation's leading scorer? The year Kentucky won it all, Anthony Davis led them in scoring with 14 points a game. That's a balanced team.
K has his hands full, trying to condense multiple years into 6-8 months.
Exactly. There are, guaranteed, going to be some absolute stinkers next year. Games where shots don't fall, guys make stupid decisions, and when hero ball explodes in our faces. But our guys will learn from that. The biggest struggle from HS to college is for guys to learn that what worked in HS won't work in college.
Agreed. Maybe not as a starter, but he'll play big minutes off the bench.
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Regardless of who starts, we'll see a "lineup of death" with TJ, AOC, CR, RJ, and Zion. Yes, it will be undersized, and susceptible to the 2-3 offensive bigs with measurable offensive skill. But it will be attacking on both sides of the court. AOC's shooting is likely to open up lanes for everyone.
Absolutely. But we'll need some three point shooting to open up defenses. I suspect TJ will be fine, but we'll need one more.
One of Cam and RJ will shoot better than we expect. It always happens like that.
That is what I suspect will happen. But, realistically, we'll need BOTH to shoot fairly well, north of 35%, to make a serious run in March. Like you, I think that will happen.
I don’t know if it will happen or not. But it’s a 3pt, guard heavy game now. Ironic since so many complained about living and dying by the 3 for so long and now we are quite literally begging for similar teams. Game has certainly changed. Either way, we need multiple shooters and Tre needs to be one of them. If he, Alex, Cam and RJ can all be at least 35% we will be in solid shape.
We always have something to complain about. I guess we just want to see Villanova 2.0 with solid man-to-man defense, ridiculous outside shooting, and multiple play-makers. We want to win every game by 20 points. Is that too much to ask for?
Our problem with those three point heavy teams was two fold: We lacked any sort of bigs capable of rim protection and rebounding, and we were slow at the guard position.
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This lack of athleticism at the guard cut down on driving opportunities, and made defense problematic, which was exacerbated by the lack of rim protection.
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People look at what Nova did, or what GSW does, and they talk about the three point shooting. Well, the guards for both teams weren't JUST three point shooters. They were all capable of driving and finishing in the rim. Steph Curry is probably the "worst" driver on the two squads (vs NBA bigs, so obviously I meant this as a relative comparison), and he's at least very dangerous as a drive and pull up and shoot guy.
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Too many of our three point heavy teams had guys that could ONLY jack up threes. They weren't dangerous drivers, which made their 3pt shots that much easier to guard.
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It wasn't that we as fans were upset about perimeter oriented teams. We were upset at teams that were too unbalanced towards the perimeter, or by perimeter rotations that were too un-athletic at the end of the day.
Good post. Made more frustrating because we are Duke, and don't expect to have such glaring weaknesses, like rim protection, or guards that can't get to the basket. Then we have 2 bigs this season, and now have a clogged lane and our point guard, Duval, who probably was one of the best in the country at attacking the basket, was somewhat hindered.
I don't ever expect Javin to average more than 8 ppg at Duke, and that may even be a stretch. But his ceiling is still very high, because of the athleticism and defense. Javin is just gonna be running a long race, a veryyyyy long race, much like Lance Thomas.
Who really expected Lance Thomas to still be in the NBA, or even be in the NBA at all? Who expected Lance Thomas to still be getting NBA checks, but Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer didn't make it?
Javin has all of the tools to make a living with basketball, he needs to start with a 12 foot jumpshot and move out from there.
Who really expected Lance Thomas to still be in the NBA, or even be in the NBA at all? Who expected Lance Thomas to still be getting NBA checks, but Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer didn't make it?
Javin has all of the tools to make a living with basketball, he needs to start with a 12 foot jumpshot and move out from there.
Well stated. My referencing of past 3pt heavy teams was made tongue in cheek for the reasons you mentioned. But it is still comical because rarely would you think duke would be beggin for 3pt shooters after years of us doing “only” that. To win you need much more than that which we do have- hopefully those four guys i mentioned can shoot decent and we are a force in today’s game, bc we should have everything else.
2007-2009, he’ll even 2010 in a way. Our bigs were perfect because they knew their roles but i wouldn’t necessarily call them great rim protectors. Lance did a great job of being able to guard multiple positions, but Z, Mase Who was a freshmen and Miles were very limited. Get boards and kick out.
I think you should probably go look at the stats from 07-09 if you think those were great 3-point shooting teams. They also all had 2 of DeMarcus Nelson, Gerald Henderson, and Nolan Smith so I don't think athleticism at the guard position was an issue either. They were all definitely weak up front though.
Since 07, Duke as a team has shot either 37 or 38% as a team on around 800 3 pt attempts per season almost every season. The outliers by % are:
09 - 35%
11 - 33%
13 - 41%
14 - 39%
There were also 2 years we took far fewer shots from 3 than the others:
07 - 520
13 - 676
Since 07, Duke as a team has shot either 37 or 38% as a team on around 800 3 pt attempts per season almost every season. The outliers by % are:
09 - 35%
11 - 33%
13 - 41%
14 - 39%
There were also 2 years we took far fewer shots from 3 than the others:
07 - 520
13 - 676
I also feel 2005-2006, we did a lot of JJ watching and when he wasn't making those half court 3's at a high clip, that doomed us as well.
Fo sho.
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Further, I think we might be buying trouble for the upcoming year. We worry that our guys will be so weak from the perimeter that teams will leave them alone and restrict all driving lanes.
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Well, that might be a double edged sword. Sure, you can back off enough to make driving very difficult.
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But I'm not sure it will be wise to leave any of TJ, CR, or RJ completely unguarded. I think our guys are mid to low 30s from 3, WHEN CLOSELY GUARDED.
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But when completely wide open? With ample time to set their feet, line up the shot, and let it fly? Well, in that scenario our guys might all be 40% shooters or near about. The "problem" with Duval and Javin was that they could be left completely unguarded. Further, our post was so crowded that you could live in the pocket of Allen and Trent. Sure, either one could go around his defender, but then what? A crowded post awaited two guys that aren't great at finishing in traffic.
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Next year, I'm not sure you'll want to guard either of CR or RJ (and maybe not Zion), and certainly not TJ, as loosely as Jav and TD were guarded this past year. Last year, you didn't have to guard TD and Jav on the perimeter, and I bet defenses would be willing to let White shoot to his heart's content as well. Left completely unguarded on the perimeter none of those guys is going to make enough threes to be a problem. If opponents leave next year's wings that wide open, they'll get 30.
Even when we had 1 or 2 athletes on the perimeter/wing, they usually didn't have three point shooting ability. Or, the rest of the guard rotation was slow.
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Also, last year. Luke and Matt were not that athletic, and Allen is run in a straight line and then jump high athletic, but pedestrian, at best, laterally. So, last year was a low athleticism on the perimeter group. So was the year before.
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Having one or 2 good/great athletes on the team, even on the perimeter, doesn't offset the rest of the guards/team being slow footed. Ingram and Tatum were good, or even great, athletes. But they played PF, even if they did a lot of work on the perimeter.
Well for the most part, outside shooting has never been Duke's problem. So with that in mind, our good 3 point shooting teams that were slow at the guard spot and lacked inside presence? 17, 16, 14, 09, 08, 07.
We certainly need balance. We always seem to have far too many of one thing and not enough of other things.
I know basketball is moving towards 3-point shooting, but I still feel you need Elite BIGS in college basketball for scoring and rebounding to kick out to those wide open 3-point shooters. All of K's title teams have had great BIG men (2010 was a collection of Plumlees and Zoubek/Thomas and both Plumlee's and Thomas are still in the NBA).
Every recent champion has had some decent post players. K's deepest runs in the NCAA Tournament have always featured them as well. That's why Roy Williams has never lost a first round game in the NCAA Tournament and tends to win the regular season with regularity because he still believes in having post players.
I know basketball is moving towards 3-point shooting, but I still feel you need Elite BIGS in college basketball for scoring and rebounding to kick out to those wide open 3-point shooters. All of K's title teams have had great BIG men (2010 was a collection of Plumlees and Zoubek/Thomas and both Plumlee's and Thomas are still in the NBA).
Every recent champion has had some decent post players. K's deepest runs in the NCAA Tournament have always featured them as well. That's why Roy Williams has never lost a first round game in the NCAA Tournament and tends to win the regular season with regularity because he still believes in having post players.
Now I do cut the staff some slack regarding getting BIGS into Duke (in the past) along with the negative recruiting that was also going on with Wojo coaching the BIGS. But, at whatever (as long as it's ethical) cost, I feel you need an Elite BIG and surrounded by athletic shooters.
Elite bigs are nice, but not necessary. Javin could do a lot of what will be necessary to win titles. Bigs need to, in ORDER, Defend the rim, rebound, be able to switch on D, blank space, shoot threes, blank space, score at the rim.
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Sure, having an AD would be great. The last several NBA titles have been won by teams whose bigs only rebounded and played defense.
I guess I might have a quibble with the word "elite." If a big has good enough size, solid athleticism, and will play hard/smart, that is enough.
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The line is probably the difference between Bolden and Bagley or Carter. If you can Bolden an elite big out of HS, then sure. If you draw the line after Bags as an elite, then IDK. I think the Duke 2015 team was the last team with a truly elite big that won the title, and Oak was a relatively minor contributor in the actual title game (huge part in us getting there, obv.).
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An elite big with elite shooters and all around athleticism is pretty much guaranteed to at least play for the NCAAT. That ideal will be hard to achieve given the vagaries of recruiting. I just think an athletic team, with solid three point shooting, and capable bigs is probably a more realistic goal on a year in, year out basis.
Not necessary? I disagree. If we start at 2010, we had a collection of BIGS that knew their role and it worked out for us. 2011 and 2012 Miles and Mason were our BIGS and hadn't developed yet (but I also remember K saying Miles was elite in practice, but it never translated to the games). By 2013, Mason was an All-American averaging a double-double and we go to the Elite 8. 2014= NO BIGS, 2015 = Okafor; 2016 we had Marshall Plumlee and even he went to the NBA (we just didn't have depth when he got into foul trouble). 2017, we had Giles, Bolden, and Jeter who were all injured at certain points with Amile playing the 5. This year, we had two lottery pick BIGS and went to the Elite 8 and were a Grayson Allen shot away from the Final Four.
I'm not saying we need an adbundance or that they all have to be lottery picks, but if we can't get any post production, then we probably won't advance far in the NCAA Tournament. Not just rebounding and defending, but also capable of getting easy baskets and averaging at least 10 ppg.
Yeah see my post above. Bolden is perfect for this team and one that I would consider elite, it's just that he hasn't had the time (injured) or the opportunity to showcase his game. He will be perfect for next season as long as he stays healthy.