1st Election Projection to be released today.

[tigertommy1]

. So now what?

Now electoral math takes over

 

[CUtiger (actual)]

I'm happy you have a good father. I am no racist bigot. I asked you a question and you label me a racist. Just like you've assumed I'm a trump supporter.
You don't know me but you're the only one that has made personal attacks but somehow you're the tolerant one right?

You have been a perfect shining example of the problem in this country. If I disagree with you and ask the color of your skin I must be a racist biggot. This is why secession should happen. Let's do it peacefully this time though ok, no need for a nasty war like last time.

Let people who believe in limited government, working for what you have, spending less than you make, and treating others with respect all form one nation. Let people that believe in free healthcare/college/welfare, huge government to cover all that free stuff and spending more than you make while attacking anyone that thinks different from you form a separate nation.

See I don't want to control you, I just don't want you to control me. Your actions in this thread prove to me I don't want you to control me!

Please let this happen.

 

[CUtiger (actual)]

South Carolina it's like 25% black, and they will all vote for Hillary. If you get 1/3 of whites to vote Dem, then that's a 50/50 split. Women are the most reliable voters, and are more likely to vote Democrat. Given trumps rhetoric, I could see the state being pretty close. Still think it goes for Trump, but by five points or so.

This explains your effeminate disposition.

 

[SlovenskoTiger]

Not saying she won't, but I thought there were 16 previous people that were going to destroy him. I didn't think Trump was serious about running, and I didn't think he had a shot. That's what they told us. So now what?

The republican base that turns out in the primary is a far different demographic from voters in the general election. Vastly different size as well.

 

[Cavitybacks]

Hillary will crush Trump. This is not new news. Those who voted for Trump are at fault for this. Hopefully China or Russia take over our country sooner rather than later and put an end to all the nonsense our country has been delving into.

Who had a better chance than Trump? He's already had more votes than Romney had, and those votes were split among 4-6 people the majority of the primaries.

I voted for Kasich, but nobody voted for Kasich. He doesn't have the name or charisma. Hillary would've beaten him soundly. Cruz? No chance America would vote for Cruz in a general.

If Hillary wins, which she most likely will, I don't see a Republican ever winning again until major crisis or war occurs.

 

[anon1753124268]

South Carolina it's like 25% black, and they will all vote for Hillary. If you get 1/3 of whites to vote Dem, then that's a 50/50 split. Women are the most reliable voters, and are more likely to vote Democrat. Given trumps rhetoric, I could see the state being pretty close. Still think it goes for Trump, but by five points or so.

Doesn't really work like that. About 40% of blacks in SC will vote. Which brings us to 10% of the black population that will vote. Hillary still has 40% to go.

Barry had 44% in each of the last two SC elections. Hillary would have to flip a ton of folks that have voted red their entire life. Not gonna happen. I'm also inclined to believe that there are many folks in SC that are buying the rhetoric.

 

[anon1753124268]

Who had a better chance than Trump? He's already had more votes than Romney had, and those votes were split among 4-6 people the majority of the primaries.

I voted for Kasich, but nobody voted for Kasich. He doesn't have the name or charisma. Hillary would've beaten him soundly. Cruz? No chance America would vote for Cruz in a general.

If Hillary wins, which she most likely will, I don't see a Republican ever winning again until major crisis or war occurs.

I agree that the Republicans won't see the white house for a while. Not until their positions get with the program and stop alienating the new majority of the US.

 

[appalachiatiger]

polls and projections are absolutely useless at this point

we havent even gotten to the convention

lets wait til we are a few weeks into the season

preseason polls just like in football are useless

the emotional anger of americans dissects the entire spectrum

political pundits and policy wanks are in for an eye opening experience to what main street has been trying to get across to wall street for the las decade

its time to bring common sense back to government and rid ourselves of these self righteous know it alls that continually talk down to the populace

 

[nextoffensivecoord]

This explains your effeminate disposition.

 

[nextoffensivecoord]

Doesn't really work like that. About 40% of blacks in SC will vote. Which brings us to 10% of the black population that will vote. Hillary still has 40% to go.

Barry had 44% in each of the last two SC elections. Hillary would have to flip a ton of folks that have voted red their entire life. Not gonna happen. I'm also inclined to believe that there are many folks in SC that are buying the rhetoric.

It does work like that when only 40% of whites vote too

 

[keezy]

R's complaining about losing to Hillary are funny. You've just begun to see who the real Donald Trump is. (That's funny considering his twitter handle) He will be so close to HRC on policy by the time November rolls around, R's will be kicking themselves in the nuts every morning when they get up. Trump sold a bunch of idiots that he was different and was going to change things, shake things up he said. When in reality, he was just like those he was criticizing, saying exactly what he knew the idiots wanted to hear, when he knew they wanted to hear it. He may be new to the game, but he's played by the same playbook as everyone else always has. As he's gotten farther away from the R primary and true conservatives he's spoken less about the need for a wall and more about raising min wage and taxes. It's only the beginning.

 

[Earle36]

I see Hillary dropping like a rock. She let a nobody senator beat her 8 years and she struggling with a 100 year old socialist.
Trump will ground and pound Hill dawg. She is a horrible campaigner.
America will be great again...

 

[Clemblack]

Why do black people always vote democrat?

 

[Cavitybacks]

Why do black people always vote democrat?

It's just a social norm. Only explanation I can come up with.

 

[tigertommy1]

Why do black people always vote democrat?

Good question considering Republicans originally fought for their freedom

 

[tigertommy1]

I see Hillary dropping like a rock. She let a nobody senator beat her 8 years and she struggling with a 100 year old socialist.
Trump will ground and pound Hill dawg. She is a horrible campaigner.
America will be great again...

Once again, tell me the blue states that Trump will turn red? And why?

Trump gonna need some upsets. Show me the math. In your mind show me which state turns from historical voting patterns.

I am as Republican as anyone, but also understands the math of the electoral college. Trump aint winning

 

[Clems0nTiger]

Why do black people always vote democrat?

I think there's certainly some amount of racial aspect to this. Historically, the GOP has some skeletons in the closet (see "Southern Strategy"). Of course, this will open up the TI flood gate on whether it's accurate or not.

But, I think there's more to it at play. The cross-section you're asking about are not only characterized by the color of their skin. Nationwide, African Americans are well below the median income marker. So, perhaps a more appropriate question to ask is- why do lower-income people vote democrat? That answer seems more obvious.

 

[steele-tiger]

The election math is against Trump. Even if Trump wins ever state that Romney won plus Florida, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada that still only gets Trump to 265. He would then need to win VA, WI, CO or PA to win. It is an extremely uphill battle for a candidate that is historically disliked.

At least Hillary is also historically disliked second only to Trump.

It just seems like an incredible uphill battle. People have been sleeping on Trump, but that is among Republican voters not Democratic voters. Trump would need historic turnout on his behalf and low turnout on Hillary's behalf and that seems far fetched considering how many people dislike Trump and will likely vote to vote against him.

 

[Tiger Guru]

Good question considering Republicans originally fought for their freedom

I heard something on Wallbuilders one time about what the Dems used to do to the Black people, and it was very hard to listen to. I couldn't believe it. It was seriously some of the worse things I've ever heard. I sat there driving and wondering why I was 31 years old before I heard that, and it's never covered. I mean, it would make you cringe. Can't believe that any political party would do that. Very, very sad.

 

[Orangetown]

I see Hillary dropping like a rock. She let a nobody senator beat her 8 years and she struggling with a 100 year old socialist.
Trump will ground and pound Hill dawg. She is a horrible campaigner.
America will be great again...

It amazing, but that "nobody senator" currently leads Trump by 13 points. That is much better than HRC. Don't understand it, but this has been consistent with many polls over several months. Many Reds are hoping that Hillary is indicted. That will put the election in the hands of the blues. Bernie will get more millennial votes and there is always a chance that Biden would get the nod which would be unbeatable against Trump.

 

[kgwillison]

What is lost on a lot of people is that a proverbial yellow dog running as a Democrat would be favored these days in a presidential election against any Republican. To coin a phrase, "it's the electoral college, stupid." As others have noted above, megastates such as California, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Illinois are now Democratic mainstays.

No reason for a Republican candidate - no matter who s/he is - to waste a nickel campaigning in those states. Now the majority of our 50 states will be Republican Red no matter who is the GOP candidate. Unfortunately for Republicans, it takes a lot of Utahs and Idahos to equal one New York or California.

In presidential years, the GOP is now behind the 8-ball. With Trump, it will be worse. Far worse. Even states like Georgia and NC may tilt to the Democrats. (Virginia will definitely go to Clinton. Northern Va., where voter turnout (and income and education levels) is highest in the state, will be overwhelmingly Clinton country against Trump.) No matter what the polls say today, SC will go to the GOP and Clinton won't spend a dime there campaigning in the general election.

The GOP will get its hopes up 2 years later when fewer voters go to the polls and likely return the Senate to GOP control (and the House, too, should it actually flip in 2016). Far fewer voters go to the polls in off-presidential years and, after 10 consecutive years of a Dem in the White House, the voters will be more apt to vote Republican. But until the GOP can begin to make headway with Hispanic voters (they won't get far with African American voters in the near term), the White House will remain out of reach.

 

[anon1753124268]

What is lost on a lot of people is that a proverbial yellow dog running as a Democrat would be favored these days in a presidential election against any Republican. To coin a phrase, "it's the electoral college, stupid." As others have noted above, megastates such as California, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Illinois are now Democratic mainstays.

No reason for a Republican candidate - no matter who s/he is - to waste a nickel campaigning in those states. Now the majority of our 50 states will be Republican Red no matter who is the GOP candidate. Unfortunately for Republicans, it takes a lot of Utahs and Idahos to equal one New York or California.

In presidential years, the GOP is now behind the 8-ball. With Trump, it will be worse. Far worse. Even states like Georgia and NC may tilt to the Democrats. (Virginia will definitely go to Clinton. Northern Va., where voter turnout (and income and education levels) is highest in the state, will be overwhelmingly Clinton country against Trump.) No matter what the polls say today, SC will go to the GOP and Clinton won't spend a dime there campaigning in the general election.

The GOP will get its hopes up 2 years later when fewer voters go to the polls and likely return the Senate to GOP control (and the House, too, should it actually flip in 2016). Far fewer voters go to the polls in off-presidential years and, after 10 consecutive years of a Dem in the White House, the voters will be more apt to vote Republican. But until the GOP can begin to make headway with Hispanic voters (they won't get far with African American voters in the near term), the White House will remain out of reach.

Beautiful post. Spot on. Well crafted. Wish there was a love button.

 

[Tiger2526]

most recent poll I saw of Pa taken on 4-24 had Hillary with a 54-39 lead, and Pa has voted Democrat 6 elections in a row, most of them not even close.

He is not winning Pa.

Last poll in Fla had her up 49-36. He is not winning there either. That poll was May 2nd.

And yes, I did say that polls are meaningless. But they do give a general idea of how things stand. Fla has also gone blue last 2. I have a hard time seeing how that is going to change. Fla isn't exactly full of Bernie supporters, it is more likely Hillary supporters, so they will show up to vote for her.

Check your poll dates... There are new polls out

 

[Tiger2526]

Ohio (18) is in play, as is Mizz (10), Virginia (18).

Back to my original question - which historical blue state can he turn? NY or NJ. Highly doubtful, but that is what he is looking at in order to win

Cause he can win those mentioned up above, but if he can't turn any historical states, he still loses

PENNSYLVANIA - NOTHING MORE NEEDED

Florida is a tie right now

 

[JAMCRACKER99]

I'm calling this premature election projection which could be kind of messy.

 

[Tiger2526]

I agree that the Republicans won't see the white house for a while. Not until their positions get with the program and stop alienating the new majority of the US.

LOL the new majority???? Those that want grown men in a bathroom with our daughters? That's the democrats for ya

 

[Tiger2526]

The election math is against Trump. Even if Trump wins ever state that Romney won plus Florida, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada that still only gets Trump to 265. He would then need to win VA, WI, CO or PA to win. It is an extremely uphill battle for a candidate that is historically disliked.

At least Hillary is also historically disliked second only to Trump.

It just seems like an incredible uphill battle. People have been sleeping on Trump, but that is among Republican voters not Democratic voters. Trump would need historic turnout on his behalf and low turnout on Hillary's behalf and that seems far fetched considering how many people dislike Trump and will likely vote to vote against him.

Funny fact, those most disliked in the past election won...

 

[Tiger2526]

Beautiful post. Spot on. Well crafted. Wish there was a love button.

Man/woman/acceptablesexdecisionbytarget person, just stop

 

[Redd2007]

R's complaining about losing to Hillary are funny. You've just begun to see who the real Donald Trump is. (That's funny considering his twitter handle) He will be so close to HRC on policy by the time November rolls around, R's will be kicking themselves in the nuts every morning when they get up. Trump sold a bunch of idiots that he was different and was going to change things, shake things up he said. When in reality, he was just like those he was criticizing, saying exactly what he knew the idiots wanted to hear, when he knew they wanted to hear it. He may be new to the game, but he's played by the same playbook as everyone else always has. As he's gotten farther away from the R primary and true conservatives he's spoken less about the need for a wall and more about raising min wage and taxes. It's only the beginning.

I'm no Trump supporter, but recent history suggests this is an effective strategy.

 

[tigertommy1]

PENNSYLVANIA - NOTHING MORE NEEDED

Florida is a tie right now

I love your enthusiasm. Really do. Let me make it clear I detest democrats and just about any policy they produce.

That being said.......

Pointless to keep pointing out the math to you, and others. Its just not gonna happen. Problem with polls is they are such a tiny sample size, in states with millions of people.

Polls try to predict the future, when it is much easier to use history as a judge as to how states fall.

Unless there have been demographic changes, economic issues, or social issues, states just dont change without reason.

Trump is double digits behind in Fla. Without Fla he has no path. NONE. NADA. It cannot happen.

Math. Math. Math. All it is, all it ever will be.

 

[anon1753124268]

The

I love your enthusiasm. Really do. Let me make it clear I detest democrats and just about any policy they produce.

That being said.......

Pointless to keep pointing out the math to you, and others. Its just not gonna happen. Problem with polls is they are such a tiny sample size, in states with millions of people.

Polls try to predict the future, when it is much easier to use history as a judge as to how states fall.

Unless there have been demographic changes, economic issues, or social issues, states just dont change without reason.

Trump is double digits behind in Fla. Without Fla he has no path. NONE. NADA. It cannot happen.

Math. Math. Math. All it is, all it ever will be.

They just want their candidate to win. I don't think they actually follow the electorate math. If they did, well, they'd understand how Trump has no path. And it isn't debatable.

 

[Tiger2526]

I love your enthusiasm. Really do. Let me make it clear I detest democrats and just about any policy they produce.

That being said.......

Pointless to keep pointing out the math to you, and others. Its just not gonna happen. Problem with polls is they are such a tiny sample size, in states with millions of people.

Polls try to predict the future, when it is much easier to use history as a judge as to how states fall.

Unless there have been demographic changes, economic issues, or social issues, states just dont change without reason.

Trump is double digits behind in Fla. Without Fla he has no path. NONE. NADA. It cannot happen.

Math. Math. Math. All it is, all it ever will be.

That's funny, I'm a math person too. Specifically when it comes to statistics...

 

[Tiger2526]

The

They just want their candidate to win. I don't think they actually follow the electorate math. If they did, well, they'd understand how Trump has no path. And it isn't debatable.

When it happens, please leave this board, Deal?


Edit: I'll leave if i'm wrong. But you must promise to never post here again with your retarded views when I'm (right).

 

[Tiger2526]

Unless there have been demographic changes, economic issues, or social issues, states just dont change without reason.

 

[Tiger2526]

I love your enthusiasm. Really do. Let me make it clear I detest democrats and just about any policy they produce.

That being said.......

Pointless to keep pointing out the math to you, and others. Its just not gonna happen. Problem with polls is they are such a tiny sample size, in states with millions of people.

Polls try to predict the future, when it is much easier to use history as a judge as to how states fall.

Unless there have been demographic changes, economic issues, or social issues, states just dont change without reason.

Trump is double digits behind in Fla. Without Fla he has no path. NONE. NADA. It cannot happen.

Math. Math. Math. All it is, all it ever will be.

I posted new polls math guy

 

[anon1753124268]

When it happens, please leave this board, Deal?


Edit: I'll leave if i'm wrong. But you must promise to never post here again with your retarded views when I'm (right).

Deal. What do you want the spread to be? 50 electorates sound fair?

 

[Clems0nTiger]

LOL the new majority???? Those that want grown men in a bathroom with our daughters? That's the democrats for ya

 

[Tiger2526]

Deal. What do you want the spread to be? 50 electorates sound fair?[/QUO

Lol OK if youre offering a spread youre really much dumber than I thought. But I'll take it

 

[anon1753124268]

@Cris_Ard you let these personal attacks stay on the board but remove my questions?

@Tillman28 those are my boys. I'm a damn good father. You would have been lucky to have a daddy like me.

You didn't answer my question though, you have a really good tan?

Bump for the racism from @poates6