11-9 or 12-8?
- Thread starter RUSCFORMERLYRULOU
- Start date
What is your reasoning? Is this just a whim? Is there any analysis involved?
show your work
You realize the B1G is the strongest or 2nd strongest conference in the nation. A .500 record will get you in, and keep in mind some leagues with auto bids are not playing. The lack of non-conference games is hurting the smaller/weaker conferences. That means more at-large bids to the power conferences based on the schedule's strength. There a good chance that a 9-11 record would get in like Purdue was in play last year. The B1G doesn't have the same issues as the SEC or the Pac 12 with the number of the quality teams further down in the conference.
whomever is 10-10 in the BIG is in. 5 of the Top 12 programs in the country are BIG teams. It is top to bottom the best conference in basketball. Now to Rutgers, we are in the top 10 in the country strength of schedule wise. The only benefit to not playing cupcakes in December. We have a solid quad 1 resume
12-8??
. That’s the equivalent of 22-9 in most years with a normal out of conference Of schedule with 4 four more cupcake wins, a win at the hall, a win at providence, and a loss to Baylor in the Garden
last year most had us at 20-11/11-9 on the 8 line heading into the big ten tourney
this year ...12-8 has us on the 7 line firmly
10-10 is in
9-11 is likely in with a big ten tourney win
still waaaaay to early, but The big ten is looking good for a team with a losing record getting in
I'm as pessimistic as they come and if we go 10-10 I would be ecstatic and we would be in.
Granted I’m at brunch drinking a bloody Mary but I think Lou really started hitting it early today!
They’d be in now at 5-6...9-6 NET 34.
I guess ‘chalk’ would be:
Win 1 road game at NE and 4 home games vs IN, MD, NW, MN
and lose road games at MI, IA, MN, NW.
RU winds up 10-10, 14-10.
First BigTen tourney game would be against a decent team...
Even with a first game BIG tourney loss, a lot would have to go wrong for RU to slip out of the field IMHO.
There would still be the B1GT.
without looking at BACs work, impact of no Ivy League, etc. I am thinking, back of the envelope, 10 B1G wins (regular season PLUS tournamnet)
Once data rolls in my confidence level grows with that assessment
A
anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Theres gonna be one extra spot this year with the ivy league sitting out. 10-10 were definitely in. 9-11 i think were first 4 out.
we’re a classic bubble team
we’re a classic bubble team
Exactly , they don’t look at conference record . They look at your overall resume , quad wins , strength of schedule and strength of wins . Also they don’t want to see many bad losses
Why is everyone getting so worked up? Calling for deleted threads and worst thread of the year? I guess we will see, but I doubt very much that 9 wins gets us in and 10-10 only marginal.
You are VERY fortunate someone thought Pike needed to be fired.
I think because there’s people on this board that follow this stuff really closely and know that we’re a lock at 10-10, while you’re just going off a whim with no data or analysis.
Starting the day yesterday Maryland is in the field as a 12 seed....tell us what their B1G record is ....
and I believe Arizona put themselves on a self ban...Oklahoma State is up in the air
Maryland is 4 games below 0.500 in league and they are currently last 4 in. A lot of you are actively ignoring how good this conference is. 8-12 will get you in this year
10-10 isn't a thing, look at Tournament company we are in right now.
5 Q1 wins
#10 Alabama (14-3) 5-1(2 with loss today), #1 Baylor (15-0) 5-0, #2 Gonzaga (16-0) 5-0
4 Q1 wins
#19 Kansas (10-5) 4-5(Tenn today), #34 Rutgers (9-6) 4-5, #14 Texas (11-3) 4-3, #15 tOSU (13-4) 4-3, and #26 Missouri (10-3) 4-2
3 Q1 wins
#40 Maryland (8-8)3-7, #30 Purdue (11-6)3-5, 6 tied 3-4(#7Illinois, #20 OU(4 with Alabama win today), #21WVU, #38Minn, #46CSU, #50Clemson), Iowa, Tenn, BYU, OSU, Wisc, UM, Creighton, UH
24 teams on the list, 3 or more Q1 wins, 3-4 vs those teams.
Maryland is the only team to have more Q1 games with 10, Kansas, Rutgers and NW(2-7) with 9 Q1 games.
#19 Kansas(10-5,1-0) 4-5 2-0 1-0 3-0 H6-1 Rd2-3 N2-1
*@#97 Q2TCU win*, N Q2W #81 UK 5-10, loss vs Texas by 25
Q1 Wins @#13, #20, #21, #23
Q1L Zags, W#23Creighton, Q4 win, 7 of 8 Q1 games 4-4(3-1, Q2W, 0-3), Q3W
11-5W, @11-4W, 11-3L, 9-6W, 11-4W, @10-4L, @15-0L, @11-4L/ 89-30 74.8%
#34 Rutgers(9-6) 4-5 1-1 1-0 3-0 H7-3 Rd2-3
*@#95 Q2MSU loss by 23*, only difference in profile, Q2W #52 Cuse 9-5
Q1 Wins #7, #30, @#40, @#48
Stretch 9 of 10 Q1 games 4-6(3-2, Q2L, 1-3), Q3W
@8-8W, 11-5W, @13-4L, 11-6W, 12-4L, @8-5L, 13-4L, 13-4L, @5-7L, @9-7W/ 103-54 65.6%
I'd say Kansas is comfortably in, Q2 MSU loss doesn't put us on the bubble or out, or even close.
Our remaining schedule is favorable and enough breaks in 3 Q1 games that we could run the table(9-0) or at least aim for 7-2, 8-1. We will be prepared for @Q2 NW, vsQ2 Minn. I like our chances @Q1 Iowa, shouldn't have lost the first one and we know what happened 2 yrs ago, Weiskamp prayer, and beat them by 14 @Iowa. I do worry about home trap game, vsQ3 NW, between @Iowa and @Q1 UM, who knows if they get that chemistry back after the pause. VsQ2 Md, vsQ2 Indiana, @Q3 Nebraska before finishing @Q1 Minnesota. I like our chances.
5 Q1 wins
#10 Alabama (14-3) 5-1(2 with loss today), #1 Baylor (15-0) 5-0, #2 Gonzaga (16-0) 5-0
4 Q1 wins
#19 Kansas (10-5) 4-5(Tenn today), #34 Rutgers (9-6) 4-5, #14 Texas (11-3) 4-3, #15 tOSU (13-4) 4-3, and #26 Missouri (10-3) 4-2
3 Q1 wins
#40 Maryland (8-8)3-7, #30 Purdue (11-6)3-5, 6 tied 3-4(#7Illinois, #20 OU(4 with Alabama win today), #21WVU, #38Minn, #46CSU, #50Clemson), Iowa, Tenn, BYU, OSU, Wisc, UM, Creighton, UH
24 teams on the list, 3 or more Q1 wins, 3-4 vs those teams.
Maryland is the only team to have more Q1 games with 10, Kansas, Rutgers and NW(2-7) with 9 Q1 games.
#19 Kansas(10-5,1-0) 4-5 2-0 1-0 3-0 H6-1 Rd2-3 N2-1
*@#97 Q2TCU win*, N Q2W #81 UK 5-10, loss vs Texas by 25
Q1 Wins @#13, #20, #21, #23
Q1L Zags, W#23Creighton, Q4 win, 7 of 8 Q1 games 4-4(3-1, Q2W, 0-3), Q3W
11-5W, @11-4W, 11-3L, 9-6W, 11-4W, @10-4L, @15-0L, @11-4L/ 89-30 74.8%
#34 Rutgers(9-6) 4-5 1-1 1-0 3-0 H7-3 Rd2-3
*@#95 Q2MSU loss by 23*, only difference in profile, Q2W #52 Cuse 9-5
Q1 Wins #7, #30, @#40, @#48
Stretch 9 of 10 Q1 games 4-6(3-2, Q2L, 1-3), Q3W
@8-8W, 11-5W, @13-4L, 11-6W, 12-4L, @8-5L, 13-4L, 13-4L, @5-7L, @9-7W/ 103-54 65.6%
I'd say Kansas is comfortably in, Q2 MSU loss doesn't put us on the bubble or out, or even close.
Our remaining schedule is favorable and enough breaks in 3 Q1 games that we could run the table(9-0) or at least aim for 7-2, 8-1. We will be prepared for @Q2 NW, vsQ2 Minn. I like our chances @Q1 Iowa, shouldn't have lost the first one and we know what happened 2 yrs ago, Weiskamp prayer, and beat them by 14 @Iowa. I do worry about home trap game, vsQ3 NW, between @Iowa and @Q1 UM, who knows if they get that chemistry back after the pause. VsQ2 Md, vsQ2 Indiana, @Q3 Nebraska before finishing @Q1 Minnesota. I like our chances.
10-10 and most likely 9-11 provided one of the losses isn't to Nebraska is definitely in. We play in the B1G, at worst the 2nd best hoops conference.
Rutgers is in 7th at 5-6. Keep winning to stay in the argument. Team can derail and go 7-13 or end at 12-8 ... not playing as many games to boost the win total exists in the other conferences too. Rutgers went 4-0 out of conference, and I am sure many majors lost one or more. There are 6 teams in the Top 25 (24%). Take care of business and the tourney takes care of itself.
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