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Grant Green

Grant Green

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Grant Green

Grant Green

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Erial_Lion said:
I’d sentence him to having to watch that horrific show he did that gave actual winning gamblers a bad name.
Click to expand...
I’ve heard that the show producers included him to show the seedy side of the tout industry. It backfired on them.

i do have a soft spot for Todd Wishnev. He’s actually a pretty sharp guy.
 
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Psurosco

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Been following thread and it has helped. Not sure how much you are using AI but I recently built an Agent for CFB and NFL.

With guidelines here is what they posted yesterday


OFFICIAL RELEASE #1​

League: NFL Preseason
Game: Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans
Market: Full-game spread
Bet: Los Angeles Chargers -1.5
FanDuel Line: -1.5
Price: -105
Model/Fair Line: approximately Chargers -2.5
Estimated Cover Probability: 55.0%
Break-Even Probability: 51.22%
Estimated Edge: +3.8 percentage points
Estimated EV: approximately +7.4% per unit risked
Rating: 2X
Playable Through: Chargers -1.5 up to -110. At -2.5 I want a new calculation rather than automatically chasing it.
Primary reasons: Both teams are expected to sit most starters, which makes backup/depth quality unusually important. The Chargers are expected to turn the offense over to Trey Lance, while Houston is sitting C.J. Stroud; current reporting specifically characterizes this as primarily a backups game. There is also independent analysis favoring Los Angeles based on the Chargers' quarterback tandem and offensive setup.
Primary risks: This is preseason, so playing-time uncertainty remains materially higher than in a regular-season game. The estimated edge is sufficient for release but nowhere near enough to justify an aggressive 4X/5X classification.
Release Date: August 13, 2026
Release Time: approximately 4:11 p.m. ET
Weekly Releases: 1 of 5
Remaining: 4
Under our V1 rules, this release is now permanent at Chargers -1.5 (-105) regardless of subsequent movement or the result.
Under our V1 rules, this release is now permanent at Chargers -1.5 (-105) regardless of subsequent movement or the result.


What happened to Tennessee?​


This is important. Do not chase Tennessee.


This morning we had Tennessee -5.5 (-108) and estimated roughly 55.5%. Your new FanDuel screenshot has the same spread at -5.5 but now -120. Break-even has risen from 51.92% to 54.55%.


Today's reporting continues to support the underlying Tennessee personnel thesis: Tennessee's roster is expected to see action, while San Francisco's game is heavily oriented toward evaluating depth players. But price has consumed most of our wagering edge. Even if the underlying ~55–56% cover assessment remains approximately right, -120 leaves too little margin given preseason uncertainty.


So Tennessee goes from:


Morning: Strong Release Candidate, -5.5 (-108)
Now: PASS at -5.5 (-120)


That is exactly how V1 is supposed to work. We don't bet the team; we bet the team at a price.


One other noteworthy move is Arizona: your morning screenshot had Arizona +1.5 (-110); FanDuel now has Arizona +3.5 (-122). That's a substantial change through the key 3, but the -122 price and uncertainty surrounding preseason rotations prevent me from promoting it simply because the number moved. It warrants monitoring rather than chasing the apparent line value.


Current board: 1/5 — Chargers -1.5 (-105), 2X. Four slots remain. Everything else tonight remains PASS/WATCH at the displayed FanDuel prices.

Will keep posting if there is interest
 
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Grant Green

Grant Green

All-American
Jan 21, 2004
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Psurosco said:
Been following thread and it has helped. Not sure how much you are using AI but I recently built an Agent for CFB and NFL.

With guidelines here is what they posted yesterday


OFFICIAL RELEASE #1​

League: NFL Preseason
Game: Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans
Market: Full-game spread
Bet: Los Angeles Chargers -1.5
FanDuel Line: -1.5
Price: -105
Model/Fair Line: approximately Chargers -2.5
Estimated Cover Probability: 55.0%
Break-Even Probability: 51.22%
Estimated Edge: +3.8 percentage points
Estimated EV: approximately +7.4% per unit risked
Rating: 2X
Playable Through: Chargers -1.5 up to -110. At -2.5 I want a new calculation rather than automatically chasing it.
Primary reasons: Both teams are expected to sit most starters, which makes backup/depth quality unusually important. The Chargers are expected to turn the offense over to Trey Lance, while Houston is sitting C.J. Stroud; current reporting specifically characterizes this as primarily a backups game. There is also independent analysis favoring Los Angeles based on the Chargers' quarterback tandem and offensive setup.
Primary risks: This is preseason, so playing-time uncertainty remains materially higher than in a regular-season game. The estimated edge is sufficient for release but nowhere near enough to justify an aggressive 4X/5X classification.
Release Date: August 13, 2026
Release Time: approximately 4:11 p.m. ET
Weekly Releases: 1 of 5
Remaining: 4
Under our V1 rules, this release is now permanent at Chargers -1.5 (-105) regardless of subsequent movement or the result.
Under our V1 rules, this release is now permanent at Chargers -1.5 (-105) regardless of subsequent movement or the result.


What happened to Tennessee?​


This is important. Do not chase Tennessee.


This morning we had Tennessee -5.5 (-108) and estimated roughly 55.5%. Your new FanDuel screenshot has the same spread at -5.5 but now -120. Break-even has risen from 51.92% to 54.55%.


Today's reporting continues to support the underlying Tennessee personnel thesis: Tennessee's roster is expected to see action, while San Francisco's game is heavily oriented toward evaluating depth players. But price has consumed most of our wagering edge. Even if the underlying ~55–56% cover assessment remains approximately right, -120 leaves too little margin given preseason uncertainty.


So Tennessee goes from:


Morning: Strong Release Candidate, -5.5 (-108)
Now: PASS at -5.5 (-120)


That is exactly how V1 is supposed to work. We don't bet the team; we bet the team at a price.


One other noteworthy move is Arizona: your morning screenshot had Arizona +1.5 (-110); FanDuel now has Arizona +3.5 (-122). That's a substantial change through the key 3, but the -122 price and uncertainty surrounding preseason rotations prevent me from promoting it simply because the number moved. It warrants monitoring rather than chasing the apparent line value.


Current board: 1/5 — Chargers -1.5 (-105), 2X. Four slots remain. Everything else tonight remains PASS/WATCH at the displayed FanDuel prices.

Will keep posting if there is interest
Click to expand...
I'm very skeptical that AI can effectively handicap and find long term +EV.
Can you ask it to provide a detailed discussion on its methods?

You should track how it does over the course of the season in terms of ATS record and actual ROI. As it astutely points out, the vig is significant, so winning a bet at -120 is not the same as -110. A season probably still isn't a large enough samples size, but would be an interesting excercise.
 
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Psurosco

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Oct 13, 2021
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Grant Green said:
I'm very skeptical that AI can effectively handicap and find long term +EV.
Can you ask it to provide a detailed discussion on its methods?

You should track how it does over the course of the season in terms of ATS record and actual ROI. As it astutely points out, the vig is significant, so winning a bet at -120 is not the same as -110. A season probably still isn't a large enough samples size, but would be an interesting excercise.
Click to expand...
We will see. A lot of it goes into instructions. No forced plays. Will be interesting once CFB starts with 50+ games a week. Will have to monitor and make adjustments as needed.
Last night no plays
 
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Psurosco

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Thanks — having the actual FanDuel numbers changes the analysis. I screened the seven Saturday games against today's starter/QB information. There is one game that has moved into release territory for me.

OFFICIAL RELEASE #2​

League: NFL Preseason
Game: Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears
Market: Full-game spread
Bet: Cleveland Browns -3.5
FanDuel Line: -3.5
Price: +100
Model/Fair Line: approximately Cleveland -4.5
Estimated Cover Probability: 55.0%
Break-Even Probability: 50.0%
Estimated Edge: +5.0 percentage points
Estimated EV: approximately +10.0% per unit risked
Rating: 2X
Playable Through: -3.5 up to -110. Do not chase -4.5 without reevaluation.
The personnel setup is the key. Cleveland has announced Deshaun Watson for the first half and Shedeur Sanders for the second half. Chicago is taking essentially the opposite approach: Caleb Williams and several established starters are sitting, with Tyson Bagent starting.
That's unusually useful preseason information because Cleveland isn't merely getting a short QB1 cameo—the planned Watson/Sanders split gives us a reasonably defined quarterback rotation for essentially the entire game. Chicago's lineup has considerably more uncertainty once we're into its depth.
The other thing making this different from Denver yesterday is price. FanDuel is giving us Cleveland -3.5 at +100. We need only 50% to break even rather than 52.38% at -110 or 54%+ at expensive juice. I estimate the cover probability at approximately 55%, which creates enough cushion to justify one of our scarce slots despite preseason variance.
Primary risks: -3.5 is obviously less attractive than -3 because we've crossed the key field-goal number. Watson is also returning from a very long injury layoff, so I am not treating his name as equivalent to peak-level QB play. Those factors keep this at 2X rather than 3X+.
 
Grant Green

Grant Green

All-American
Jan 21, 2004
3,965
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113
Last season, Overs hit big in the first two games.

Unders went 12-4 this past week. Variance.
 
Grant Green

Grant Green

All-American
Jan 21, 2004
3,965
5,492
113
NoBareFeet said:
Who woulda thought betting on NFL preseason games was a bad idea?
Click to expand...
I agree, for the public guys that aren't really researching the games.
However, if you can dig for good info, preseason can be more profitable than regular season. Volatility can be the sharp bettors friend.
 
Grant Green

Grant Green

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Jan 21, 2004
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Grant Green said:
Well, I made my first ever PSU national championship bet for a small amount - pizza money as they say. Do I think that PSU has a good shot? Not really. However, Bovada has PSU at 125 to 1. For comparison, Bookmaker and Betonline has it at 55 and 66 to 1 and I think DK is somewhere between. Sports betting is all about finding EV and 125 to 1 is way too high, so I'm compelled to place a small wager.

I'm not alone. Here is a write up by someone I highly respect and follow who bet PSU at 70 to 1.

As the clock runs out on Miami and Indiana in the 2026 College Football Playoff National Championship, there may be no better time to look forward to the next season.

Thanks to an updated college football calendar, the lone transfer portal window of the season has closed. The ability to gauge roster experience became a little easier with the May portal window dropping off the schedule.

The early returns from TARP, a measurement of "Transfer Activity and Returning Production," show a number of teams hitting the jackpot.

Eleven teams maxed out their returning production thanks to portal additions.

Old blue-blood teams like Oregon and Florida gained as many power rating points as possible with their 2026 rosters, while fresh national faces like Indiana and Texas Tech also cashed in on portal additions.

One team is undergoing massive changes throughout the roster and coaching staff but may be set up to make a College Football Playoff run 11 months from now.

Penn State fired head coach James Franklin in October before administrators missed out on candidates such as BYU's Kilani Sitake.

The Nittany Lions may have landed the best fit possible, as new head coach Matt Campbell is known for developing tight ends.

Penn State has a reputation for producing NFL-ready tight ends, and Campbell used more 12, 13 and 14 personnel than any other FBS program.

The former Iowa State head coach has wasted little time rebuilding Penn State. Campbell brought the recruiting back to life, but his work in the transfer portal will pay dividends next season.

The Nittany Lions finished fifth in the transfer portal rankings. Quarterback Rocco Becht, tight end Benjamin Brahmer and receiver Chase Sowell are just a few of the four-star names coming to State College next season.

Campbell also pulled one of the best defensive coordinators in FBS with D’Anton Lynn coming in from USC.

After spending time with UCLA and the Baltimore Ravens, Lynn made a lifeless USC defense a top-30 unit in nearly every category over the span of two years.

Also assisting the early national title wager is the schedule. No team on Penn State's 2026 schedule is expected to be power-rated over the Nittany Lions.

In summary, Penn State was struggling to find a coach in November, while the recruiting was abysmal after Franklin's departure. Campbell is not only a great fit for the Penn State offense, but the recruiting trail and transfer portal have seen positive impacts since early December.

The hiring of Lynn ensures that the Nittany Lions defense will remain highly efficient and Havoc-minded. The schedule is also conducive to a run, with cupcakes in nonconference play and no Ohio State or Oregon in Big Ten play.

Pick: Penn State to Win 2027 National Championship (+7000)
Click to expand...

PSU now down to about 60 to 1 from 125 to 1. Value probably gone now.
 
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Erial_Lion

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Here is a play for tomorrow from a market that I've been excited to attack again...

US Open Mixed Doubles (Tuesday, 8/25)
Errani/Vavassori -185 Andreeva/Rublev (line from DKNJ)

A year later, and the market still isn't giving enough credit to the Doubles specialists in this tournament. This line isn't as off as the early matches in last year's tournament, but the defending champs are still not getting nearly enough respect.
 
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Grant Green

Grant Green

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Firing up year 3 of this thread. Here are some picks from Ed Walls.
I'll be rooting for points (over 50.5) in the Colorado/GT game tonight.

 
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Grant Green

Grant Green

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Grant Green said:
I'm sure everyone is waiting with bated breath, so here it is.

B10 teams travelling 2+ time zones - NW, Oregon, and Washington all fail to cover (UW loses outright). Nebraska covers vs UCLA
Week 11: 1-3
2025: 10-14
since 2024: 17-30

ACC - Stanford and Cal both cover
Week 11: 2-0
2025: 6-7
Click to expand...
I may be the only one that cares, but I'm tracking this again.

B10 - no 2+ TZ travel
since 2024: 17-30

ACC
1-0 as Miami covers vs Stanford
since 2025: 7-7
 
Grant Green

Grant Green

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cntblvitsbutter said:
Are you saying when teams travel across 2 time zones to play, their record is 17-30?
Click to expand...
Pretty much.
Since USC, UCLA, UW, and Ore have entered the B10, teams travelling at least 2 time zones are 17-30 against the spread.
I've been tracking it throughout this thread.

The ACC is 7-7 since I started tracking.
 
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cntblvitsbutter

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Grant Green said:
Pretty much.
Since USC, UCLA, UW, and Ore have entered the B10, teams travelling at least 2 time zones are 17-30 against the spread.
I've been tracking it throughout this thread.

The ACC is 7-7 since I started tracking.
Click to expand...

I'm guessing Oregon has a lot of those 17 covers.
 
Grant Green

Grant Green

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cntblvitsbutter said:
I'm guessing Oregon has a lot of those 17 covers.
Click to expand...
Oregon is 3-2 ATS in the last 2 seasons. I heard someone else talking about this angle and mentioned that the ATS record is even worse when you don't consider the top 3 teams (didn't ID the top 3, but I assume OSU, IU, and UO).
 
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Erial_Lion

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The Splash/Polymarket 1k Survivor contest is trending towards an insane overlay. Following it closely the next few days, and could be a tremendous opportunity.
 
Grant Green

Grant Green

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Jan 21, 2004
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Erial_Lion said:
The Splash/Polymarket 1k Survivor contest is trending towards an insane overlay. Following it closely the next few days, and could be a tremendous opportunity.
Click to expand...
Do I see less than half of the max pool size?
And $21 million prize?
 
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Erial_Lion

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Grant Green said:
I’m rooting for you. I’m guessing it’s a fairly high likelihood of a chop at the end.

Is registration closed or not until Sunday?
Click to expand...
Thanks. It closes at 1pm Eastern on Sunday. I’m guessing it ends with 17-18k entries, but tracking closely. Number of entries at 12:45pm will determine if I’m in it once, or ~20 times.
 
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Erial_Lion

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Grant Green said:
@Erial_Lion
Some interesting discussion from Elihu Feustal on NFL teasers. He expands the Wong teaser parameters a bit and notes some situations where 3 to 4 team teasers may be a better value than 2 team.

Starts around 25:50.
https://www.iheart.com/podcast/867-vsin-best-bets-30203597/now-playing
Click to expand...
Thanks, enjoyed that one. If anyone else is looking for it, it's the "A Numbers Game, 9/10/26, Hour 3" (it never links me directly to it, but I knew it would be a Gil Alexander one from your history). Elihu has always been great, we used to both post at the SBR Think Tank back in the early 2000s when he was a moderator over there.

We talk about it often, but this is the kind of stuff that people don't understand when they hear that I'm a semi-pro better. I can't tell you who will win the Rams/Niners game tonight...but it's finding these small mathematical edges and hammering them (cliff notes for those that didn't listen...he talks about some new subsets of teasers that can be long-term profitable, and finding ways to exploit the payouts on 3 and 4 team teasers vs. 2 teamers to drop the win% needed to break even down a few percentage points). And I love that he talked about looking square while playing some of these, as that's the battle we fight every day as more and more books limit bets or kick you out for making +EV wagers...those opportunities to win while not showing signs of sharpness are golden!
 
Grant Green

Grant Green

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Jan 21, 2004
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Erial_Lion said:
Thanks, enjoyed that one. If anyone else is looking for it, it's the "A Numbers Game, 9/10/26, Hour 3" (it never links me directly to it, but I knew it would be a Gil Alexander one from your history). Elihu has always been great, we used to both post at the SBR Think Tank back in the early 2000s when he was a moderator over there.

We talk about it often, but this is the kind of stuff that people don't understand when they hear that I'm a semi-pro better. I can't tell you who will win the Rams/Niners game tonight...but it's finding these small mathematical edges and hammering them (cliff notes for those that didn't listen...he talks about some new subsets of teasers that can be long-term profitable, and finding ways to exploit the payouts on 3 and 4 team teasers vs. 2 teamers to drop the win% needed to break even down a few percentage points). And I love that he talked about looking square while playing some of these, as that's the battle we fight every day as more and more books limit bets or kick you out for making +EV wagers...those opportunities to win while not showing signs of sharpness are golden!
Click to expand...
Argh, sorry. I fixed the link.
I've heard about this tactic of mixing in some teasers to look square. I like the idea, but find it hard to believe that books won't be able to see through this if you are an overall +EV bettor.
 
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cntblvitsbutter

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Nov 1, 2021
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Not a pro, semi-pro, or semi-pro hopeful, but SMU -26 against UC Davis seems pretty low. Davis is an FCS team traveling to SMU who marched up and down the field against FSU. Think Jennings comes out to prove that his mistakes against FSU were a fluke.
 
Grant Green

Grant Green

All-American
Jan 21, 2004
3,965
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cntblvitsbutter said:
Not a pro, semi-pro, or semi-pro hopeful, but SMU -26 against UC Davis seems pretty low. Davis is an FCS team traveling to SMU who marched up and down the field against FSU. Think Jennings comes out to prove that his mistakes against FSU were a fluke.
Click to expand...
I don't keep power ratings for FCS so I typically refer to the Sagarin ratings to get an idea. He has SMU at 80 and Davis at 58, so SMU would be -22 on a neutral. Factor in HFA and it's probably -24 or -25. I would be a little careful with this one since it is a pretty classic sandwich spot between FSU and Louisville.

(For context a rating of 58 is about equal to Marshall, FAU, and Fresno.)
 
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1995PSUGrad

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cntblvitsbutter said:
Not a pro, semi-pro, or semi-pro hopeful, but SMU -26 against UC Davis seems pretty low. Davis is an FCS team traveling to SMU who marched up and down the field against FSU. Think Jennings comes out to prove that his mistakes against FSU were a fluke.
Click to expand...
I think some people must agree with you because I see it at -28.5 now.
 
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Moogy

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cntblvitsbutter said:
Not a pro, semi-pro, or semi-pro hopeful, but SMU -26 against UC Davis seems pretty low. Davis is an FCS team traveling to SMU who marched up and down the field against FSU. Think Jennings comes out to prove that his mistakes against FSU were a fluke.
Click to expand...

That line's probably good up until 40, at least.

SMU was clearly superior to FSU, but shot themselves in the foot a bunch of times. I'm sure it was driven home in practice that they need to come out and play mistake free football, so they'll be driven to put their foot on the gas early and keep it on ... they should curbstomp UC Davis.
 
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Erial_Lion

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Nov 1, 2021
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Erial_Lion said:
Thanks. It closes at 1pm Eastern on Sunday. I’m guessing it ends with 17-18k entries, but tracking closely. Number of entries at 12:45pm will determine if I’m in it once, or ~20 times.
Click to expand...
It’s up to almost 14.7k entries with 24 hours to go. They’ve been pushing really hard on it with “influencers” (probably the nicest term I can find for people like KellyInVegas), offerings perks to join (offered a $100 bonus on a $1k deposit if I join, a free entry in the $100 survivor pool for joining, etc). I still think it will be an overlay, but maybe not a completely crazy one.
 
Grant Green

Grant Green

All-American
Jan 21, 2004
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Misleading box scores that stood out to me from this weekend. I threw in one pro game because it was so lopsided.

ASU better than expected and TAM a little overrated?
Jax St impressive in a loss
One of my favorite bets of years past was Oregon State at home, especially at night. They tended to be underrated and overperform. I hate myself for not pulling the trigger on this one, but may look to bet them at home in the future.

1789405263917.png
 
Grant Green

Grant Green

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Some more notes and box score frauds...
ODU was another that I thought about better because of the coaching relationships. Glad I passed, although ODU was probably the right side.

1789405620284.png
 
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