BWI Sports Betting Thread

[Grant Green]

If you can’t trust a fine, upstanding gentleman like Vegas Dave, who can you trust?

Faced with time behind bars, Las Vegas sports betting figure skips court

A judge said he would issue an arrest warrant for Las Vegas sports betting figure David Oancea after Oancea failed to appear in court to be taken into custody.

www.reviewjournal.com

Haha. Of course he skipped court. Such a terrible human being.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Haha. Of course he skipped court. Such a terrible human being.

I’d sentence him to having to watch that horrific show he did that gave actual winning gamblers a bad name.

 

[Grant Green]

I’d sentence him to having to watch that horrific show he did that gave actual winning gamblers a bad name.

I’ve heard that the show producers included him to show the seedy side of the tout industry. It backfired on them.

i do have a soft spot for Todd Wishnev. He’s actually a pretty sharp guy.

 

[Psurosco]

Been following thread and it has helped. Not sure how much you are using AI but I recently built an Agent for CFB and NFL.

With guidelines here is what they posted yesterday

OFFICIAL RELEASE #1​

League: NFL Preseason
Game: Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans
Market: Full-game spread
Bet: Los Angeles Chargers -1.5
FanDuel Line: -1.5
Price: -105
Model/Fair Line: approximately Chargers -2.5
Estimated Cover Probability: 55.0%
Break-Even Probability: 51.22%
Estimated Edge: +3.8 percentage points
Estimated EV: approximately +7.4% per unit risked
Rating: 2X
Playable Through: Chargers -1.5 up to -110. At -2.5 I want a new calculation rather than automatically chasing it.
Primary reasons: Both teams are expected to sit most starters, which makes backup/depth quality unusually important. The Chargers are expected to turn the offense over to Trey Lance, while Houston is sitting C.J. Stroud; current reporting specifically characterizes this as primarily a backups game. There is also independent analysis favoring Los Angeles based on the Chargers' quarterback tandem and offensive setup.
Primary risks: This is preseason, so playing-time uncertainty remains materially higher than in a regular-season game. The estimated edge is sufficient for release but nowhere near enough to justify an aggressive 4X/5X classification.
Release Date: August 13, 2026
Release Time: approximately 4:11 p.m. ET
Weekly Releases: 1 of 5
Remaining: 4
Under our V1 rules, this release is now permanent at Chargers -1.5 (-105) regardless of subsequent movement or the result.
Under our V1 rules, this release is now permanent at Chargers -1.5 (-105) regardless of subsequent movement or the result.

What happened to Tennessee?​

This is important. Do not chase Tennessee.


This morning we had Tennessee -5.5 (-108) and estimated roughly 55.5%. Your new FanDuel screenshot has the same spread at -5.5 but now -120. Break-even has risen from 51.92% to 54.55%.


Today's reporting continues to support the underlying Tennessee personnel thesis: Tennessee's roster is expected to see action, while San Francisco's game is heavily oriented toward evaluating depth players. But price has consumed most of our wagering edge. Even if the underlying ~55–56% cover assessment remains approximately right, -120 leaves too little margin given preseason uncertainty.


So Tennessee goes from:


Morning: Strong Release Candidate, -5.5 (-108)
Now: PASS at -5.5 (-120)


That is exactly how V1 is supposed to work. We don't bet the team; we bet the team at a price.


One other noteworthy move is Arizona: your morning screenshot had Arizona +1.5 (-110); FanDuel now has Arizona +3.5 (-122). That's a substantial change through the key 3, but the -122 price and uncertainty surrounding preseason rotations prevent me from promoting it simply because the number moved. It warrants monitoring rather than chasing the apparent line value.


Current board: 1/5 — Chargers -1.5 (-105), 2X. Four slots remain. Everything else tonight remains PASS/WATCH at the displayed FanDuel prices.

Will keep posting if there is interest

 

[Grant Green]

Been following thread and it has helped. Not sure how much you are using AI but I recently built an Agent for CFB and NFL.

With guidelines here is what they posted yesterday

OFFICIAL RELEASE #1​

League: NFL Preseason
Game: Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans
Market: Full-game spread
Bet: Los Angeles Chargers -1.5
FanDuel Line: -1.5
Price: -105
Model/Fair Line: approximately Chargers -2.5
Estimated Cover Probability: 55.0%
Break-Even Probability: 51.22%
Estimated Edge: +3.8 percentage points
Estimated EV: approximately +7.4% per unit risked
Rating: 2X
Playable Through: Chargers -1.5 up to -110. At -2.5 I want a new calculation rather than automatically chasing it.
Primary reasons: Both teams are expected to sit most starters, which makes backup/depth quality unusually important. The Chargers are expected to turn the offense over to Trey Lance, while Houston is sitting C.J. Stroud; current reporting specifically characterizes this as primarily a backups game. There is also independent analysis favoring Los Angeles based on the Chargers' quarterback tandem and offensive setup.
Primary risks: This is preseason, so playing-time uncertainty remains materially higher than in a regular-season game. The estimated edge is sufficient for release but nowhere near enough to justify an aggressive 4X/5X classification.
Release Date: August 13, 2026
Release Time: approximately 4:11 p.m. ET
Weekly Releases: 1 of 5
Remaining: 4
Under our V1 rules, this release is now permanent at Chargers -1.5 (-105) regardless of subsequent movement or the result.
Under our V1 rules, this release is now permanent at Chargers -1.5 (-105) regardless of subsequent movement or the result.

What happened to Tennessee?​

This is important. Do not chase Tennessee.


This morning we had Tennessee -5.5 (-108) and estimated roughly 55.5%. Your new FanDuel screenshot has the same spread at -5.5 but now -120. Break-even has risen from 51.92% to 54.55%.


Today's reporting continues to support the underlying Tennessee personnel thesis: Tennessee's roster is expected to see action, while San Francisco's game is heavily oriented toward evaluating depth players. But price has consumed most of our wagering edge. Even if the underlying ~55–56% cover assessment remains approximately right, -120 leaves too little margin given preseason uncertainty.


So Tennessee goes from:


Morning: Strong Release Candidate, -5.5 (-108)
Now: PASS at -5.5 (-120)


That is exactly how V1 is supposed to work. We don't bet the team; we bet the team at a price.


One other noteworthy move is Arizona: your morning screenshot had Arizona +1.5 (-110); FanDuel now has Arizona +3.5 (-122). That's a substantial change through the key 3, but the -122 price and uncertainty surrounding preseason rotations prevent me from promoting it simply because the number moved. It warrants monitoring rather than chasing the apparent line value.


Current board: 1/5 — Chargers -1.5 (-105), 2X. Four slots remain. Everything else tonight remains PASS/WATCH at the displayed FanDuel prices.

Will keep posting if there is interest

I'm very skeptical that AI can effectively handicap and find long term +EV.
Can you ask it to provide a detailed discussion on its methods?

You should track how it does over the course of the season in terms of ATS record and actual ROI. As it astutely points out, the vig is significant, so winning a bet at -120 is not the same as -110. A season probably still isn't a large enough samples size, but would be an interesting excercise.

 

[Psurosco]

I'm very skeptical that AI can effectively handicap and find long term +EV.
Can you ask it to provide a detailed discussion on its methods?

You should track how it does over the course of the season in terms of ATS record and actual ROI. As it astutely points out, the vig is significant, so winning a bet at -120 is not the same as -110. A season probably still isn't a large enough samples size, but would be an interesting excercise.

We will see. A lot of it goes into instructions. No forced plays. Will be interesting once CFB starts with 50+ games a week. Will have to monitor and make adjustments as needed.
Last night no plays

 

[Psurosco]

Today
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Thanks — having the actual FanDuel numbers changes the analysis. I screened the seven Saturday games against today's starter/QB information. There is one game that has moved into release territory for me.

OFFICIAL RELEASE #2​

League: NFL Preseason
Game: Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears
Market: Full-game spread
Bet: Cleveland Browns -3.5
FanDuel Line: -3.5
Price: +100
Model/Fair Line: approximately Cleveland -4.5
Estimated Cover Probability: 55.0%
Break-Even Probability: 50.0%
Estimated Edge: +5.0 percentage points
Estimated EV: approximately +10.0% per unit risked
Rating: 2X
Playable Through: -3.5 up to -110. Do not chase -4.5 without reevaluation.
The personnel setup is the key. Cleveland has announced Deshaun Watson for the first half and Shedeur Sanders for the second half. Chicago is taking essentially the opposite approach: Caleb Williams and several established starters are sitting, with Tyson Bagent starting.
That's unusually useful preseason information because Cleveland isn't merely getting a short QB1 cameo—the planned Watson/Sanders split gives us a reasonably defined quarterback rotation for essentially the entire game. Chicago's lineup has considerably more uncertainty once we're into its depth.
The other thing making this different from Denver yesterday is price. FanDuel is giving us Cleveland -3.5 at +100. We need only 50% to break even rather than 52.38% at -110 or 54%+ at expensive juice. I estimate the cover probability at approximately 55%, which creates enough cushion to justify one of our scarce slots despite preseason variance.
Primary risks: -3.5 is obviously less attractive than -3 because we've crossed the key field-goal number. Watson is also returning from a very long injury layoff, so I am not treating his name as equivalent to peak-level QB play. Those factors keep this at 2X rather than 3X+.

 

[Grant Green]

Last season, Overs hit big in the first two games.

Unders went 12-4 this past week. Variance.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Last season, Overs hit big in the first two games.

Unders went 12-4 this past week. Variance.

Yea, most of the really successful people I know got crushed this weekend.

 

[NoBareFeet]

Yea, most of the really successful people I know got crushed this weekend.

Who woulda thought betting on NFL preseason games was a bad idea?

 

[Erial_Lion]

Who woulda thought betting on NFL preseason games was a bad idea?

It's often a very profitable idea (for those that know what they're doing).

 

[Grant Green]

Who woulda thought betting on NFL preseason games was a bad idea?

I agree, for the public guys that aren't really researching the games.
However, if you can dig for good info, preseason can be more profitable than regular season. Volatility can be the sharp bettors friend.

 

[NoBareFeet]

It's often a very profitable idea (for those that know what they're doing).

I agree, for the public guys that aren't really researching the games.
However, if you can dig for good info, preseason can be more profitable than regular season. Volatility can be the sharp bettors friend.

I stand corrected. Congrats on all the riches.

 

[Erial_Lion]

I stand corrected. Congrats on all the riches.

Thanks, appreciate it.

 

[Grant Green]

Well, I made my first ever PSU national championship bet for a small amount - pizza money as they say. Do I think that PSU has a good shot? Not really. However, Bovada has PSU at 125 to 1. For comparison, Bookmaker and Betonline has it at 55 and 66 to 1 and I think DK is somewhere between. Sports betting is all about finding EV and 125 to 1 is way too high, so I'm compelled to place a small wager.

I'm not alone. Here is a write up by someone I highly respect and follow who bet PSU at 70 to 1.

As the clock runs out on Miami and Indiana in the 2026 College Football Playoff National Championship, there may be no better time to look forward to the next season.

Thanks to an updated college football calendar, the lone transfer portal window of the season has closed. The ability to gauge roster experience became a little easier with the May portal window dropping off the schedule.

The early returns from TARP, a measurement of "Transfer Activity and Returning Production," show a number of teams hitting the jackpot.

Eleven teams maxed out their returning production thanks to portal additions.

Old blue-blood teams like Oregon and Florida gained as many power rating points as possible with their 2026 rosters, while fresh national faces like Indiana and Texas Tech also cashed in on portal additions.

One team is undergoing massive changes throughout the roster and coaching staff but may be set up to make a College Football Playoff run 11 months from now.

Penn State fired head coach James Franklin in October before administrators missed out on candidates such as BYU's Kilani Sitake.

The Nittany Lions may have landed the best fit possible, as new head coach Matt Campbell is known for developing tight ends.

Penn State has a reputation for producing NFL-ready tight ends, and Campbell used more 12, 13 and 14 personnel than any other FBS program.

The former Iowa State head coach has wasted little time rebuilding Penn State. Campbell brought the recruiting back to life, but his work in the transfer portal will pay dividends next season.

The Nittany Lions finished fifth in the transfer portal rankings. Quarterback Rocco Becht, tight end Benjamin Brahmer and receiver Chase Sowell are just a few of the four-star names coming to State College next season.

Campbell also pulled one of the best defensive coordinators in FBS with D’Anton Lynn coming in from USC.

After spending time with UCLA and the Baltimore Ravens, Lynn made a lifeless USC defense a top-30 unit in nearly every category over the span of two years.

Also assisting the early national title wager is the schedule. No team on Penn State's 2026 schedule is expected to be power-rated over the Nittany Lions.

In summary, Penn State was struggling to find a coach in November, while the recruiting was abysmal after Franklin's departure. Campbell is not only a great fit for the Penn State offense, but the recruiting trail and transfer portal have seen positive impacts since early December.

The hiring of Lynn ensures that the Nittany Lions defense will remain highly efficient and Havoc-minded. The schedule is also conducive to a run, with cupcakes in nonconference play and no Ohio State or Oregon in Big Ten play.

Pick: Penn State to Win 2027 National Championship (+7000)

PSU now down to about 60 to 1 from 125 to 1. Value probably gone now.