Maybe! I feel pretty sure we're going to 20 teams eventually.
Texas Tech–Big 12 tensions fuel SEC realignment speculation
Texas Tech–Big 12 tensions fuel SEC realignment speculation
Is Texas Tech the next SEC member?.........
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Maybe.. but I don't see what they could bring to the table. No tv market. Long travel for numerous schools. Also I think the Nedermyers will have a fit.
I would think that the SEC would try to get in the SMU/Dallas Market before Lubbock
Memphis is absolutely terrified of getting left out once and for all.
It all hinges on when North Carolina and Virginia are available, and whether they choose the Big 10 or SEC. The dominoes will fall from there.
Georgia Tech, Tulane are the expansion answers. Please at least let’s put forth the effort to geographically make an expansion make sense. One thing that’s gotten on my nerves about the expansions for everyone is it’s exposing to me that rich and in charge is exposing their stupidity.
Those are both well below SEC or Big 10 radar. Any new expansion will be huge schools. UNC. Miami. Maybe FSU. Maybe Virginia or Clemson but I don't think so.
Got to feel kind of bad for Memphis (the city). They've been desperately trying to be big time in football going all the way back to 1974 WFL team signing Csonka, Kiik and Warfield. Then they get 2 years of the Oilers before seeing them move to Nashville (ouch). And Univ Memphis has been begging for a P5 / P4 spot for years and just gets ignored.
Note that Miami would be the 2nd smallest enrollment of any SEC school (only ahead of Vanderbilt) and be on the low end of attendance (low 60,000s in 2025).
Fred Smith, Mr Fed Ex, offered any big conference $10 million a year for 10 years to take Memphis.
ETA: I think that that have been when his son was the qb.
Do markets matter that much anymore with traditional cable distribution dead?
It's more about how many people watch Miami on TV or streaming. Stadium size and attendance don't matter at all in their case. Or really in any case.
The Oilers were always going to play in Nashville, they only played in Memphis because there wasn't a viable alternative until their stadium was complete. Liberty Bowl was a stop gap.
Nope. National market is the only market that really matters. And SEC already has the Dallas market with Texas, A&M and Oklahoma.
Yes, I know. After 20 years of Memphis trying to land an NFL team, they had to sit and watch a team choose Nashville instead. And then, insult to injury, they played 2 years in Memphis while their stadium was being built.
Oilers only played 1 year in Memphis. Attendance was so bad the NFL let them play in Vandy's stadium in 1998 while their new stadium was completed.
Memphis fans didnt want to support an NFL franchise that chose Nashville over them. Plus, a lot of fans blamed Oilers owner Bud Adams for the NFL choosing Jacksonville over Memphis as an expansion city.
I had forgotten about that. Can't say I blame Memphis for not showing up. And I'm sure Bud Adams didn't want to see another NFL team in his state so I don't doubt that last part at all.
Yes they absolutely do. If you get more populated areas. You can charge more for subscriptions. ESPN has roughly 25 million standalone subscribers where Sat. and Cable still has over 60 million subscribers. ESPN can use this as bargaining during negotiations when contracts are up, that they have added major markets to SEC network affiliates, whereas they can charge more for the SEC packages to those companies compared to ACC networks.
Miami was top 20 in TV viewership last year playing in a crappy league with a bad TV deal. They'd be top 10 in the Big 10 or SEC.
North Carolina should be the #1 target. NC the state is growing rapidly and the SEC should establish a presence there asap. Miami does average more streaming viewers nationally though. I'd probably put UNC #1, Miami #2, Clemson #3, FSU #4 and Va Tech #5 for the next round of expansion. But Stankey doesn't seem like he's in too big of a hurry. Might be because of the ACC's declining exit fee structure that makes it more feasible to wait until 2030-2031.
It pre-dated Adams' move to Nashville. Adams was threatening to move the Oilers in 1986 at the end of their Astrodome lease. He visited a few cities, with Memphis and Jacksonville being his two finalists. He ultimately chose Jacksonville when they offered the best financial package.
He ultimately stayed in Houston. But a lot of people believed his close call with Jacksonville gave them an edge in expansion talks a few years later.
I believe there was a last minute addendum to the Save College Sports Act that ultimately delayed the Senate vote....or at least part of the reason....that addendum was a school must sit out 5 years and play as an independent before they can move to another conference. This may fueling the current talks of Texas Tech, but who knows.
It probably matters, but certainly less than it did 15-20 years ago.
Eyeballs still matter, but that’s not exactly the same as traditional TV market.
Yeah that’s my thought. The last major contract for all rights between the sec and espn was 2013. Traditional cable has dropped 40%+ since then. At some point the math doesn’t math on adding some of these teams even if they are in big markets.
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There was talk about an amendment that waived that requirement if the school announces a move in the next 180 days, so if the law passes, we may see the next round of realignment sooner than we expect. Which would be pretty ironic out of a law that was trying to clamp down on realignment.
Similar to what formula really wins in modern day college sports, I don't think anybody really has a model right now for what's the best expansion. Is it alumni base size? TV eyeballs? NIL spending power?
It's more about expanding the SEC footprint into new and growing markets. UNC is likely the only program the SEC would consider. Maybe Virginia or VT. The fact that these programs aren't football powers likely increases the odds that they'd accepted by conference presidents and ADs.
UNC is clearly the #1 target. Miami #2. I think Clemson is going to get left out of this. FSU would be challenging Miami for #2 if they hadn't been so quick to sue the ACC (both SEC & Big 10 will be reluctant to take on a partner who sued their own conference over a deal they agreed to - but FSU is big enough that ultimately one or the other may take them). After that, I'm not sure anyone moves the needle enough to add. Other than Notre Dame which is a given.
The ACC is going to fall apart. They signed their death warrant when they took Cal and Stanford. It was never going to work.
I think the SEC and B1G both want Miami, North Carolina and Virginia. Both would be willing to take Duke if they could get UNC. The SEC would take NC State and Virginia Tech to get UNC and Virginia. Georgia Tech as an AAU member would be attractive to the B1G.
So I could see:
SEC: North Carolina, North Carolina State, Virginia, Virginia Tech for SEC to 20. The SEC will be happy with 20
B1G: Duke, Miami, Georgia Tech for B1G to 21.
The B1G will want to go to 24. They will try to get Notre Dame and strike out, so they will get Cal and Stanford to get to 23. Needing one more, they will steal Missouri from the SEC to get to 24.
Florida State and Clemson are big names that will fight for the SEC. Missouri's leaving would create some fighting for that spot. In the end, Florida State gets the final SEC spot and Clemson is left out.
The remaining ACC teams will be: Clemson, Louisville, Pittsburgh, SMU, Syracuse and Wake Forest. The Big 12 will take all 7 as well as South Florida to get to 24.
I think the SEC and B1G both want Miami, North Carolina and Virginia. Both would be willing to take Duke if they could get UNC. The SEC would take NC State and Virginia Tech to get UNC and Virginia. Georgia Tech as an AAU member would be attractive to the B1G.
So I could see:
SEC: North Carolina, North Carolina State, Virginia, Virginia Tech for SEC to 20. The SEC will be happy with 20
B1G: Duke, Miami, Georgia Tech for B1G to 21.
The B1G will want to go to 24. They will try to get Notre Dame and strike out, so they will get Cal and Stanford to get to 23. Needing one more, they will steal Missouri from the SEC to get to 24.
Florida State and Clemson are big names that will fight for the SEC. Missouri's leaving would create some fighting for that spot. In the end, Florida State gets the final SEC spot and Clemson is left out.
The remaining ACC teams will be: Clemson, Louisville, Pittsburgh, SMU, Syracuse and Wake Forest. The Big 12 will take all 7 as well as South Florida to get to 24.
I cannot imagine that’s a net gain money-wise for the SEC to take those 4. You are basically adding 1 blue blood basketball program.
I don't think that the SEC or B1G should be looking at it from a standpoint of, "what team could help us with TV revenue immediately". I would be looking at it from an ultimate P2 perspective. You know it's happening, and everybody wants to be there. I'd be trying to get to 20 or more ASAP. So in that case, you're looking at 4-6 teams, not just 1-2. The problem is, all those teams are in the ACC, and taking them isn't financially feasible for a number of years.
That's obviously assuming PSA does not pass. If it does, ACC can breathe a sigh of relief. They'll still get raided, but not as bad.
I talk a lot about having a plan, and it's clear the ACC hasn't had one in years. The GoR was a good move, as was the scheduling alignment with ND. But yeah this last round of realignment should have been preparation for the next time they get raided, which we all know is going to happen. But SMU, Stanford and Cal? WTF that just showed how weak you were.
You're likely losing Miami and Florida State.......so go get UCF, which is a growing program. USF too. Keep the Florida presence.
You're likely losing North Carolina or Virginia, go get West Virginia. Them in the Big 12 makes as much sense Stanford/Cal.
We will have to adopt Elon Musk or get Bill Gates to put us on his foundation charity list if this occurs. Do we not have any tech entrepreneurials ready to give us $250,000,000?
I'm telling you the school up North gives 3 or 4 scholarships a year to people who have no connections to them other than their family has a ton of money. My son went there and he said they recruited Chick fil A presidents kids, rich people in Dallas, all hoping to just score 2 and get them into paying into the foundation. (left off some zeros on the donation, edited to correct)
I'm telling you the school up North gives 3 or 4 scholarships a year to people who have no connections to them other than their family has a ton of money. My son went there and he said they recruited Chick fil A presidents kids, rich people in Dallas, all hoping to just score 2 and get them into paying into the foundation. (left off some zeros on the donation, edited to correct)
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I don’t like them at all, but the future of the conference and perhaps MSU at the big boy table hinges on the Texas market. Texas and Texas A&M dwarf anything any other SEC school provides by far. The Texas market alone is the biggest and most lucrative market the SEC has to offer. If Texas and Texas A&M bolt for the B1G… the SEC is completely finished as a major player.
In terms of what “value” Texas Tech brings… they have a very deep pocket/pockets that will spend to keep up. The real value of what they could provide to someone like MSU is the fact they can further solidify the Texas market which also potentially solidifies the SEC (which MSU is damn lucky to be grandfathered in so to speak).
In terms of what “value” Texas Tech brings… they have a very deep pocket/pockets that will spend to keep up. The real value of what they could provide to someone like MSU is the fact they can further solidify the Texas market which also potentially solidifies the SEC (which MSU is damn lucky to be grandfathered in so to speak).
Any slim chance the ACC ever had went out the window when they added SMU, Cal and Stanford. Really, best thing for everyone would be for Big 12 to just absorb whatever ACC remnants it wants and split into 4 divisions. ACC is so mismanaged it's ridiculous.
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