Has Virginia Tech improved to the point where they will be competing with the big boys next March?
- Thread starter KH1984
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In 2026 Okie State scored 131 points with 2 RD16 wrestlers (Lockett and Facundo) and 2 8th placers (Swiderski and Ryder). Their incoming class has 6 of the top 10 (Jax -- who came early, Dreshon Ross, the Raneys, Zinkin, Mike White). They also added transfers 174 Lorenzo Norman and 184 Bennett Berge. Norman was 21-6 as a redshirt freshman winning Midlands and 3rd at CKLV -- he lost 4-3 to Hamiti and 10-8 to O'Toole. Berge was 4th in 2025. Whichever Rainey goes and Dreshon Ross will be AA caliber out of the gate. Okie State may not have 3 champions this year, but they will have a more complete team. I can see them scoring more than 130 points this year and even more in the years to come.
Some of this is more applicable to 2027 than other parts.
The volume of their incoming class is immaterial in 2027. White lost at Dapper Dan, so he's unlikely to start. Zinkin and one Raney aren't starting either.
Whichever Raney starts is replacing Swiderski in the lineup. Swiderski was the 8 seed and scored 6.5 pts. Beating that is possible if at 141 -- the weight is wide open after Stanich. Less likely if at 133 or 149.
They're likely to lose points at 184. Ryder made the podium and scored 8.5 pts thanks to a blood round MFF after Allred broke his leg. Berge was 4th in 2024, then went 1-2 in both 2025 and 2026. Can't really expect Berge to duplicate those 8.5 pts.
Missing context on Norman. Yes, good losses. Also he went 1-2 at NCAAs and lost twice to Luca Augustine in the postseason. He should outscore Facundo, but right now he's more borderline podium than top 4.
Lockett should be better than last year's flameout. OTOH, Robideau and Merrill seem unlikely to match 2026.
Ross is a wild card relative to Doucet's 4th/16.5 pts. He's talented enough to match that, but still a rookie at HWT and won't get a forfeit from Ferrari.
Put it all together, and they could match last year's 130 but are more likely to miss that than beat it. Still enough to easily outpace Nebraska for 2nd.
I think that you are right that the haves will have more, but this maybe a bit too big of a leap for a single year.
You have the top 8 scoring 862 points. Last year was the record for the top 8 at 775.5. That broke the previous record of 746.5 that had stood for 25 years. An 11% jump in that total when it took 25 years for a 4% increase seems improbable, but certainly not impossible.
Sounds like we agree Okie State could match last years 131. For me it’s too early to guess if it is more or less likely. You rightly point out the stars aligned for Okie State last season —- Robideau call and key forfeits to Ryder and Doucet. I thought you would mention Levi MD Norman last year.
We should get an early picture where Norman and Ross stand with the Nebraska match 11/13 (Minto & Ziola) and the national duals (Feldman). Ross really impressed me with his matches against Coby Merrill.
We should get an early picture where Norman and Ross stand with the Nebraska match 11/13 (Minto & Ziola) and the national duals (Feldman). Ross really impressed me with his matches against Coby Merrill.
Again we will see. Love your analysis. I think the expanded scholarships, transfer portal and all true freshman wrestling that the top programs are going to score significantly more points than traditionally.
As an aside I looked up Willie Saylors first 2027 crystal ball after NCAAs. He had…
1. Penn State 181 points —- that’s with Ono, Kasak and Henckel (at 174) --- no James and PJ redshirting
2. Okie State 137 points —- that’s before Norman and Berge transfers
3. Nebraska 97 points —- before Echemendia
4. Virginia Tech 79 points —- no Gaj or Miiler…
5. Iowa 78 points —- includes Crookham but not Shubert
6. Ohio State 76 points —- before Jaxon Smith and Mills redshirting
1. Penn State 181 points —- that’s with Ono, Kasak and Henckel (at 174) --- no James and PJ redshirting
2. Okie State 137 points —- that’s before Norman and Berge transfers
3. Nebraska 97 points —- before Echemendia
4. Virginia Tech 79 points —- no Gaj or Miiler…
5. Iowa 78 points —- includes Crookham but not Shubert
6. Ohio State 76 points —- before Jaxon Smith and Mills redshirting
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I assume this is a reply to me.
I think OKST 131 is feasible, but IMO they're more likely to fall short. They'd have to find 22 points more than they return, assuming no regression from Robideau and Merrill.
Maybe they can, but it'll be heavily dependent on Ross matching Doucet's 4th place -- which is a major accomplishment for a FR HWT. Something that #1 overall HWTs Kerk, Kueter, and Feldman didn't do after shirting. So color me skeptical.
Here is a team point simulator for every D1 program! Don't hate me for not having every roster 1000% correct in July! This also allows you to compare two teams - have fun!
The more he matures the better he is getting and fast. Ross will absolutely make a run at being yet another Oky St freshman champion. I have little doubt they will tease 150 points this year with, some potential upside from there if they excel. David clearly knows some of the secrets tied to peaking in March.
We are stacked, and for the most part have great depth to accommodate an injury here or there, but if Barr or SVN were to go down, things get rather uncomfortable pretty quickly.
If we lose a few portal outs due to 5 for 5, especially if the defections land at OSU (someone like Kasak, or Henkle), the year after this upcoming (i.e. 27/28) is the year where the Cowboys could even leap frog us in 'projected' points. I don't like it, but Cael will find a way.
It will be interesting to see if Bo Bassett at VT has 5 year legs. I tend to think he will follow the money at some point. He can certainly win several Nattys, but the team will be relegated to a really great second tier 3rd to 5th throughout his career. Post SVN he might just be attracted to the gap we will have at 149. No way IMO Kasak can be effective if he were able to get down there.
We are stacked, and for the most part have great depth to accommodate an injury here or there, but if Barr or SVN were to go down, things get rather uncomfortable pretty quickly.
If we lose a few portal outs due to 5 for 5, especially if the defections land at OSU (someone like Kasak, or Henkle), the year after this upcoming (i.e. 27/28) is the year where the Cowboys could even leap frog us in 'projected' points. I don't like it, but Cael will find a way.
It will be interesting to see if Bo Bassett at VT has 5 year legs. I tend to think he will follow the money at some point. He can certainly win several Nattys, but the team will be relegated to a really great second tier 3rd to 5th throughout his career. Post SVN he might just be attracted to the gap we will have at 149. No way IMO Kasak can be effective if he were able to get down there.
Agreed...They are a contender to place from position 3-7 and certainly a contender for a team trophy. BUT...can they place 1 or 2? The simple answer is NO
The team championship is a two horse race...Penn State and Oklahoma State...with one (Penn State) being the clear pre-season leader
Behind them, it gets interesting...
Pre-Season NCAA Tourney Rankings:
3. Nebraska
4. Iowa
5. Ohio St
6. Virginia Tech
7. Stanford
8. Cornell
I see Nebraska 3rd, but after them I could make a case for any of the next 4 to grab the 4 slot. And it's not inconceivable one of them sneaks up to 3rd
First place is a one horse race. Second is a one horse race.
With Penn State and OkSt so strong, it's going to be harder and harder to get wrestlers into the finals so a few big point scorers will go longer ways to a team trophy. That favors aggressive teams like VaTech and Nebraska. Seidel, Bassett and Henson could all make the finals and grab bonus along the way plus 4-5 other AA candidates. Nebraska has Minto and Taylor plus potentially McDanel and Robinson snagging bonus.
Iowa has Arnold, Ferrari and Keuter with finals hopes. None score bonus so all their eggs are in the Crookham health basket. A wrestler with an injury history at a school infamous for injuring wrestlers is not exactly what I would have done. I just don't see where their points come from as placing 6-8 gets an AA award but doesn't add a lot of points.
I just don't get Ohio State. A good duel team that looks like a terrible tourney team. There's a chance they don't finish in the top 8. Davino is their only sure fire AA as Hwt is so hard to figure out but they could also finish with 8 or 9 AAs. A bunch of good wrestlers that can AA with the right draw but could also go 1-2 or 2-2.
Considering Arnold was never able to displace Kennedy or Nelson there just is no way I can picture Arnold as a finalist threat.
Arnold is what he is, a tough, well conditioned athlete with practically "zero" offensive skills.
You are underestimating how terrible 174 projects to be. Until Penn State decides who they are rolling out, Arnold has to be looked at as a potential finalist. After Minto, who is next if not Arnold? Cam Steed? Danny Wask?
The guy who has zero offense and is going to wrestle 4 or 5, 4-1 matches, is losing a few. WHOEVER wears the PSU singlet will be 10 times more likely to wrestle in the finals compared to Arnold. If Arnold has a really good tournament, 5th sounds likely.