Want to quibble a little with your comparison of Smith and Buchanan who are very different players, with Smith more of a scorer (20.7 per game) and Buchanan a better defender, but overall agree with you that this team has potential if things go right.
Guess the rotation
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That was a mistake, I meant Jones, not Smith is similar to Buchannon.
Yes and no. Yes maybe only in the sense of their paper efficiency metrics for their positions (defense included - obviously Buchanan’s metrics are proven at the high major level). But they don’t play similar styles and the things Jones is best at typically translate pretty well. That’s the good news with him.
Jones, like Smith, is a high volume three point shooter. Over only 2 seasons he attempted 390 threes while hitting 35.4% of them. Not as high efficiency, but it’s very solid considering the number of attempts. He has 138 MADE 3s over two seasons compared to Buchanan’s 105 attempts over 3 seasons. Jones (like Smith) also can handle the ball with his left hand (which Buchanan struggles with) and unlike Smith, doesn’t appear to be a liability on defense. Again - no guarantees.
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Bottom line Pikiell can't play favorites because a winning season is a absolute must for his tenure at Rutgers.Improvement in rebounding,defense and coaching a half.court offense will tell the story about team success.
Not comparing their games, just that they are decent across the board, not great at anything, not real awful (outside DB free throws) at anything. Don't usually hurt you too much, but will be inconsistent
I disagree. 36.7% from three has to count as better than just “decent” on a sample of 198 attempts. Volume matters. When BAC asked if there was a “catch” this is probably where he’s coming from. For whatever reason, RU historically hasn’t seemed to appeal to the 3 and D type transfers. Jones certainly qualifies as that. When you add in that he can handle the ball and is a pretty good rebounder those are just added bonuses.
The addition of Jones provides a lot more confidence the perimeter D will be much better per 40. We played a 3 guard line up at least half a game last season. While defensive efficiency metrics aren’t all that reliable, it’s a very safe bet Jones comes in better than either Powers or Zrno performed at the 3 last season. We have a fan predicting Powers will do great things by his senior year - who knows, maybe he’ll do a 180 on D and earn PT at the 3 as a result. Either way - whatever we put on the floor this year at the 3 alongside a 2 small guard line up (when we play it) is going to be better than our options last year now. Jones all but ensures this. Yes - it’s a jump up in competition, but Jones is still an experienced D1 player who graded out well on D. Jordan was a unique situation where his D metrics at Merrimack were propped up by being elite at one specific skill that fit the coach’s zone scheme. His defensive drop was the exception not the rule for this reason and even still, Jordan still would’ve been materially better on D than the guards we played there last year. The bar for improvement was low. Smith at the 3 did not breed promise of improvement though. Jones definitely does. Usually the advanced indiv metrics for backcourt defense are reliable enough to predict concerns for who could be unplayable at the high major level. Jones won’t be that.
What makes you say that? There’s not a ton of film on him, but he doesn’t come across to me as a better ball handler than Jones or Smith.
I watched the whole game video of him (from 2023?) with Overtime Elite and as an 18/19 year old, he played the SG/PG position rather well. Good handle, good energy, can score, rebound and defend. A real competitor imo, and also assuming he has developed some from 3/4 years ago. Good size too, listed at 6’5.
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I wasn't criticizing Jones by comparing him with DB, they are both good guys to have.
I guess it depends on decent. 40 teams averaged 36.7% from three last year. That's decent. One guy doing it is solid, not outstanding. When same guy was a couple points lower on the same volume the year prior, figure this is about where he is solid to decent to slightly above average. I agree, he should be better than Powers or Zrno last season, but last season no longer matters. What matters is this year coming.
I wasn't criticizing Jones by comparing him with DB, they are both good guys to have.
There are 365 D1 teams. Only 34 of them shot better than 36.7% from 3 as a team (9.3% of them). You consider top 10% just “decent”?
Nevermind that though - in the context of Rutgers as a team, I’m pretty sure we haven’t averaged even 34% as a team from deep in my lifetime (2021-22 was our best at 33.6% in my memory. We may not have even broken 33% ever as a team, outside of that year. And oh yeah -from an adjusted efficiency perspective, we’ve probably never shot better than 55% from 2 either so again, by Rutgers standard, a mass volume 3 point shooting rate of 36.7% meets the criteria for very good - not just decent.
And yes - looking at team stats is appropriate when thinking about a guy who launched 198 threes. Im pretty sure we’ve never had anyone come close to taking that many in a season.
No, 36.7% as a team is very good. For an individual its decent. We won't have one guy launch that many either, he won't get that many this year, in all likelihood.
36.7% would be only decent for a guy who takes 80 or so 3s. 198 threes would comprise 30% - 40% of our team 3s depending on the season. 36.7% is really good at this volume.
If I say he's good at 3 point shooting will you stop focusing on it? He's still not a great player. He's perfectly average, like Buchannon, which is not a bad thing with different skill sets. You are happy to have them on your team and I think Jones is least likely to disappoint out of the newcomers this year (depending on one's expectations).
Just acknowledge that 36.7% shooting on even 100 attempts (half of what he took) would be a notable upgrade over any 3 point threats RU typically produces - even on its best teams. You realize that we’ve only had someone do better than that on 100+ attempts twice since Pike’s been at RU - Cam Spencer and RHJ did it ONCE in 4 seasons. Both of those players are now in the NBA…
Yes, I admit, Pike has historically not brought in shooters of any kind. RHJ did a great job developing his 3pt game, and Cam was Cam. 36.7% would be very good for RU. Hope we see it, but lean toward we won't. I do think he will be one of three guys that get at least 100 up this year though.
His efficiency might go down, but that’s usually not what happens (outside of the randomness shifts in shooting year over year) when volume is reduced. Efficiency usually goes down when shooters are expected to shoot more. You’ll perhaps point to PJ but that’s different and why I HATE the Martin pick up. It’s really hard (shooting ability aside) to go from a being a regular rotation type player to a guy who is relegated to spot up catch and shoot duties. There’s a lot of pressure each time you check in - for the latter situation. Not everyone is cut out for it. IMO that’s why PJ’s shooting went down moreso than the competition level. If he played more, he probably would’ve shot 3s at a higher percentage (he was just so bad at everything else he couldn’t help us). Guys like Tyson Acuff, Noah F, etc. shot well at RU. Perimeter shooting not the issue and usually isn’t all that impacted by competition level (volume, yes, but not efficiency because most guys don’t launch contested 3s - they get benched).
To me, Jones projects as a potentially more efficient version of a Geo style player with an inch on him.
I think with PJ his % dropped because he actually had kind of a slow release and had to hurry to get it off at this level. Remember he was getting like 20 minutes a game and shooting 50% from three up until around the Kennesaw game, went like 1-7 out in Vegas, and went 25% or so the rest of the way against better comp. Never expected him to be very successful here. Really likeable and easy kid to root for though.
I don't disagree on Jones being Geo like with some more efficiency, although I think Geo forced his offense more than we'll find Jones does. Do we get the 40% shooter from three he was in JUCO, the 34% shooter year one at his past school, or the guy in between this past year is really the question.