Want to quibble a little with your comparison of Smith and Buchanan who are very different players, with Smith more of a scorer (20.7 per game) and Buchanan a better defender, but overall agree with you that this team has potential if things go right.
Guess the rotation
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That was a mistake, I meant Jones, not Smith is similar to Buchannon.
Yes and no. Yes maybe only in the sense of their paper efficiency metrics for their positions (defense included - obviously Buchanan’s metrics are proven at the high major level). But they don’t play similar styles and the things Jones is best at typically translate pretty well. That’s the good news with him.
Jones, like Smith, is a high volume three point shooter. Over only 2 seasons he attempted 390 threes while hitting 35.4% of them. Not as high efficiency, but it’s very solid considering the number of attempts. He has 138 MADE 3s over two seasons compared to Buchanan’s 105 attempts over 3 seasons. Jones (like Smith) also can handle the ball with his left hand (which Buchanan struggles with) and unlike Smith, doesn’t appear to be a liability on defense. Again - no guarantees.
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Bottom line Pikiell can't play favorites because a winning season is a absolute must for his tenure at Rutgers.Improvement in rebounding,defense and coaching a half.court offense will tell the story about team success.
Not comparing their games, just that they are decent across the board, not great at anything, not real awful (outside DB free throws) at anything. Don't usually hurt you too much, but will be inconsistent
I disagree. 36.7% from three has to count as better than just “decent” on a sample of 198 attempts. Volume matters. When BAC asked if there was a “catch” this is probably where he’s coming from. For whatever reason, RU historically hasn’t seemed to appeal to the 3 and D type transfers. Jones certainly qualifies as that. When you add in that he can handle the ball and is a pretty good rebounder those are just added bonuses.
The addition of Jones provides a lot more confidence the perimeter D will be much better per 40. We played a 3 guard line up at least half a game last season. While defensive efficiency metrics aren’t all that reliable, it’s a very safe bet Jones comes in better than either Powers or Zrno performed at the 3 last season. We have a fan predicting Powers will do great things by his senior year - who knows, maybe he’ll do a 180 on D and earn PT at the 3 as a result. Either way - whatever we put on the floor this year at the 3 alongside a 2 small guard line up (when we play it) is going to be better than our options last year now. Jones all but ensures this. Yes - it’s a jump up in competition, but Jones is still an experienced D1 player who graded out well on D. Jordan was a unique situation where his D metrics at Merrimack were propped up by being elite at one specific skill that fit the coach’s zone scheme. His defensive drop was the exception not the rule for this reason and even still, Jordan still would’ve been materially better on D than the guards we played there last year. The bar for improvement was low. Smith at the 3 did not breed promise of improvement though. Jones definitely does. Usually the advanced indiv metrics for backcourt defense are reliable enough to predict concerns for who could be unplayable at the high major level. Jones won’t be that.
What makes you say that? There’s not a ton of film on him, but he doesn’t come across to me as a better ball handler than Jones or Smith.
I watched the whole game video of him (from 2023?) with Overtime Elite and as an 18/19 year old, he played the SG/PG position rather well. Good handle, good energy, can score, rebound and defend. A real competitor imo, and also assuming he has developed some from 3/4 years ago. Good size too, listed at 6’5.
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I wasn't criticizing Jones by comparing him with DB, they are both good guys to have.
I guess it depends on decent. 40 teams averaged 36.7% from three last year. That's decent. One guy doing it is solid, not outstanding. When same guy was a couple points lower on the same volume the year prior, figure this is about where he is solid to decent to slightly above average. I agree, he should be better than Powers or Zrno last season, but last season no longer matters. What matters is this year coming.
I wasn't criticizing Jones by comparing him with DB, they are both good guys to have.
There are 365 D1 teams. Only 34 of them shot better than 36.7% from 3 as a team (9.3% of them). You consider top 10% just “decent”?
Nevermind that though - in the context of Rutgers as a team, I’m pretty sure we haven’t averaged even 34% as a team from deep in my lifetime (2021-22 was our best at 33.6% in my memory. We may not have even broken 33% ever as a team, outside of that year. And oh yeah -from an adjusted efficiency perspective, we’ve probably never shot better than 55% from 2 either so again, by Rutgers standard, a mass volume 3 point shooting rate of 36.7% meets the criteria for very good - not just decent.
And yes - looking at team stats is appropriate when thinking about a guy who launched 198 threes. Im pretty sure we’ve never had anyone come close to taking that many in a season.
No, 36.7% as a team is very good. For an individual its decent. We won't have one guy launch that many either, he won't get that many this year, in all likelihood.
36.7% would be only decent for a guy who takes 80 or so 3s. 198 threes would comprise 30% - 40% of our team 3s depending on the season. 36.7% is really good at this volume.
If I say he's good at 3 point shooting will you stop focusing on it? He's still not a great player. He's perfectly average, like Buchannon, which is not a bad thing with different skill sets. You are happy to have them on your team and I think Jones is least likely to disappoint out of the newcomers this year (depending on one's expectations).
Just acknowledge that 36.7% shooting on even 100 attempts (half of what he took) would be a notable upgrade over any 3 point threats RU typically produces - even on its best teams. You realize that we’ve only had someone do better than that on 100+ attempts twice since Pike’s been at RU - Cam Spencer and RHJ did it ONCE in 4 seasons. Both of those players are now in the NBA…
Yes, I admit, Pike has historically not brought in shooters of any kind. RHJ did a great job developing his 3pt game, and Cam was Cam. 36.7% would be very good for RU. Hope we see it, but lean toward we won't. I do think he will be one of three guys that get at least 100 up this year though.
His efficiency might go down, but that’s usually not what happens (outside of the randomness shifts in shooting year over year) when volume is reduced. Efficiency usually goes down when shooters are expected to shoot more. You’ll perhaps point to PJ but that’s different and why I HATE the Martin pick up. It’s really hard (shooting ability aside) to go from a being a regular rotation type player to a guy who is relegated to spot up catch and shoot duties. There’s a lot of pressure each time you check in - for the latter situation. Not everyone is cut out for it. IMO that’s why PJ’s shooting went down moreso than the competition level. If he played more, he probably would’ve shot 3s at a higher percentage (he was just so bad at everything else he couldn’t help us). Guys like Tyson Acuff, Noah F, etc. shot well at RU. Perimeter shooting not the issue and usually isn’t all that impacted by competition level (volume, yes, but not efficiency because most guys don’t launch contested 3s - they get benched).
To me, Jones projects as a potentially more efficient version of a Geo style player with an inch on him.
I think with PJ his % dropped because he actually had kind of a slow release and had to hurry to get it off at this level. Remember he was getting like 20 minutes a game and shooting 50% from three up until around the Kennesaw game, went like 1-7 out in Vegas, and went 25% or so the rest of the way against better comp. Never expected him to be very successful here. Really likeable and easy kid to root for though.
I don't disagree on Jones being Geo like with some more efficiency, although I think Geo forced his offense more than we'll find Jones does. Do we get the 40% shooter from three he was in JUCO, the 34% shooter year one at his past school, or the guy in between this past year is really the question.
The more I see of this kid the more I like him. Obviously not as good, but reminds me a little bit of Pete Maravich on the court, the way he carries himself - very smooth for his size. I agree with you about him maybe playing some point.
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I doubt he qualifies, unless he's been doing school work in the US while playing elsewhere.
We have no idea what the specific reason was that he didn’t qualify. I can’t see why we would’ve picked him up when we did if he wasn’t a sure thing.
Maybe, but didn't we just pick up Dorian Jones when we were fairly sure he wouldn't? Taking a flier not exactly unprecedented.
It was a good bit different. We took Jones at the end of the cycle. Our last pick up. At a point when the rest of the roster was filled out. Duarte was our first announced pick up in the portal.
While we don’t know anything, the timing of it does fit the possibility of Duarte’s qualification depending on enrolling and completing some summer classes. That would explain the early timing of his pick up relative to others. He would’ve agreed to that as part of his contingent contract if it was needed.
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Just to circle back to this. The things you are pointing to as “needing” to go right are among some of a list of possible ways the team could get notably better. Buchanan and Tariq will have a year in the program and this offseason is an opportunity for the staff to work on improving their games within the parameters of what the team is trying to do. It’s been a while since Pike’s had offseason Rutgers film to work with returning players who logged starter minutes and even longer for returning backcourt players (we have a pair in Tariq and J Mike who logged 26+ mpg). Derek was the closest in recent memory - he played 20 mpg as a frosh. Caleb and Paul the year before that.
You say Gurdak “has” to pan out on D, but that’s not really true. Buca could also take steps to add more on offense and challenge for minutes. Or alternatively - depending on what we’re getting from other parts of the offense, we might not need that much offense from the center position. Ogbole got a bad rap for his limited offense, but if RHJ was playing next to him instead of Dylan Grant - it would have mattered less.
Most of the above are wild cards - but one thing IMO is near guarantee and that is that ball control will be much less of a limiting factor on next year’s team. In my view, this crippled us last season on both ends because it basically forced us to play 2 small guards or an otherwise unattractive mix of 5 players. This isn’t a nothing factor to be dismissed. Dylan Grant, Badalau, Zrno, Nwuli were walking turnovers whenever they tried putting the ball on the floor. Ogbole wisely didn’t try. These guys were zeros when it came to navigating on ball pressure - this was true early against Patriot league competition too. Bryce Dortch was better than the guys above but only played 14 mpg. The low major film provides enough information to say with confidence that every one of the transfers (except Buca) have significantly better ball handling skills than the guys they are replacing. I believe this can help with a lot of things - most notably ball movement in general (regardless of who is technically the PG).
I don't really think there is much working with Tariq/DB, ect on that, as the needs change based on the team around them. It's more about getting all the pieces to work together than focusing on a where a couple can improve within per se. Of course there will be focus with each guy on what they should or should not do out there.
I don't really worry about offense out of the center position. That will come on hand offs under the basket, loose balls, and offensive rebounding. I worry about defense and rebounding. EO and Dortch averaged more rebounds and more blocks with less turnovers per game than Gurdak and Buca combined (EO and Dortch played a combined 2 minutes more per game though). Could Buca take more minutes and therefore improve the D? Maybe, but is he going to continue with a 27% turnover rate at the same time? That would offset any improved D.
The rest of this is about offense - I don't care, the offense will be there, and may end up better than last years which was a top 3 Pike offense. The defense needs huge improvement whether the offense improves or not. Also, never say anything with confidence when it comes to projecting an ability moving up in levels. These look to be better all round players with more length, yes, but Jones is the only actual big increase in giving us another big guard. Zrno, Grant, and Badalau were similar in size to Smith, Syndor and new EURO. Smith may be a worse defender than all three. Syndor is a mystery.
So according to TKR podcast - has nothing to do with academics. As ludicrous as it sounds, he’s going to be denied because he accepted money from Overtime Elite forever ago back when the rules did not allow college athletes to receive pay.
This just seems so crazy to me and Richie’s explanation that the NCAA doesn’t want to open a flood gate with the precedent doesn’t really fly considering the new age limit for players will all but eliminate the concern outside of a potential small handful of cases (I think - won’t the new rules apply to anyone who hasn’t started college yet after this year?)
I just can’t get past the fact that TT has a player is allowed to play after betting on his own damn team, and we’re about to have a player be denied for having done 5 years ago what every single D1 player is now allowed to do (and doing).
That doesn't make sense, he was ineligible before overtime elite at NMSU and didn't LSU just sign a kid that played in the NBA or G League or something?
I think the role a player is expected to play is more important than the timing. If he was not expected to be a major contributor and was paid that way, it does not matter when he signed.
He went to Overtime Elite before trying to go to NM - joined in 2021 which I’m sure was when he received the pay.
Listen to the podcast. The one where Martin was discussed. As I said - it’s simply ridiculous. The premise is that the ruling was made back then when the rules said if your paid you can never play so it would set a bad precedent to undo that. Basically, he’s grandfathered in to the “can never play” because he accepted money before college players were permitted to do so and that was the consequence (except he didn’t do so while actually playing college ball. He did so before and likely had no idea that rule even existed). It makes zero sense to begin with, but the timing of this coming to head with the TT player headlining the news takes it (in my book) from “bummer - but at least we didn’t expect him to be a major impact guy” to, “wholly crap - when it gets announced, this suddenly belongs on the damn front page”. How can a kid like this be denied, when a kid who knowingly broke a rule and behaved unethically - completely against the values of everything the NCAA is supposed to stand for is deemed eligible?
Now that we know the story, I don’t think the staff can be blamed for this. It’s nothing like the Jones situation where he couldn’t meet OSU’s academic requirements so not surprisingly he didn’t do so at Rutgers either. In this case, there was every reason to believe that the road blocks that kept him out at NM state should not be a problem now. I feel terrible for Duarte. Seems completely unfair.
For a comparative - in 1988 the Olympics lifted the Amatuer requirement., but when that happened, this would be like saying - okay, anyone who is paid to compete in their sport after 1988 is welcome to compete in the 1992 Olympic and so on. But if you were a paid professional in 1987, nope, your still banned from the 1992 games and beyond - even though the Games now welcome paid players.
Oh, ok, had my timeline wrong, thought he went to OE after being ineligible at NMSU. If that's the case, it is weird that he can't play because he got paid when everyone gets paid now - guess he'll just have to sue and say it will be bad for his mental health if he doesn't play
Great comparison, but the NCAA is worse than that. Take the one year JC didn’t count against eligibility, but the next year it does, The NCAA is hurting athletes with absurd and contradictory decisions.
At least a solution is in the works to fix that going forward. In fairness to to NCAA, the TT decision was forced on them by the court.
They came out with a public statement stating they are horrified by it. And they should be. The court basically just told them they are not allowed to instate rules. The court is free to override whatever it feels like regarding student athletes.
But the Duarte case is different. You have to grasp at thin straws to even find a remote basis for disqualifying him.