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Whatever Happened To The Four Year Senior?

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Wrestleknownothing

All-Conference
Oct 30, 2021
1,842
4,890
113
Last year there were as many true freshman CHAMPIONS as true senior ALL-AMERICANS.

1778858897898.png

Five in five is just acknowledging what is already happening.

2025 and 2026 were also the all-time lows for true seniors qualifying for the NCAA tournament with 6 and 9, respectively.
 
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Acacia

Senior
Oct 30, 2021
227
502
93
Not sure what to make of these numbers...

How much did Covid affect them?
How much is normal college graduations (not just athletes) being 5 years?
How much is 9.9 scholarships to 30? NIL money? Revenue sharing?
NCAA giving injury years like candy (avoiding litigation?)
5 for 5 pending?

2023 - 0 TF Champs
2024 - 0 TF Champs
2025 - 0 TF Champs
2026 - 3 TF Champs --- certainly an outlier and needed a HS reclassification
2027 - 1 TF Champ? Maybe Bassett or James
 
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Wrestleknownothing

All-Conference
Oct 30, 2021
1,842
4,890
113
Acacia said:
Not sure what to make of these numbers...

How much did Covid affect them?
How much is normal college graduations (not just athletes) being 5 years?
How much is 9.9 scholarships to 30? NIL money? Revenue sharing?
NCAA giving injury years like candy (avoiding litigation?)
5 for 5 pending?

2023 - 0 TF Champs
2024 - 0 TF Champs
2025 - 0 TF Champs
2026 - 3 TF Champs --- certainly an outlier and needed a HS reclassification
2027 - 1 TF Champ? Maybe Bassett or James
Click to expand...
Good questions.

The shift really began in the 80's for AA's. As for the overall field of 330, there was a big drop off in true seniors starting in 2007. In 2006 there were 31, in 2007 it drops to 14 and only gets into the 20's four times in the next twenty years.

Not sure what changed around 2003.
 
W

Wrestleknownothing

All-Conference
Oct 30, 2021
1,842
4,890
113
Acacia said:
Not sure what to make of these numbers...

How much did Covid affect them?
How much is normal college graduations (not just athletes) being 5 years?
How much is 9.9 scholarships to 30? NIL money? Revenue sharing?
NCAA giving injury years like candy (avoiding litigation?)
5 for 5 pending?

2023 - 0 TF Champs
2024 - 0 TF Champs
2025 - 0 TF Champs
2026 - 3 TF Champs --- certainly an outlier and needed a HS reclassification
2027 - 1 TF Champ? Maybe Bassett or James
Click to expand...
Also that huge spike in "Other Seniors" is the Covid overhang flushing out of the system.
 
D

Dogwelder

All-Conference
Aug 1, 2013
868
2,944
93
The chart is talking about the very good wrestlers, the ones that become all Americans. The chart seems to say that, starting in the 1980s, more of these very good wrestlers started to make sure that they don’t graduate (
from wrestling) before taking a redshirt year, compared to previous years. The question is what made redshirt years more appealing/available starting in the 80s to the very good wrestlers.
 
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Dogwelder

All-Conference
Aug 1, 2013
868
2,944
93
The chart also seems to say that having more good wrestlers use a redshirt year was a successful strategy, because the number of all American placements that went to seniors, true plus redshirt, increased.
 
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Dogwelder

All-Conference
Aug 1, 2013
868
2,944
93
Wrestleknownothing said:
Last year there were as many true freshman CHAMPIONS as true senior ALL-AMERICANS.

View attachment 1292151

Five in five is just acknowledging what is already happening.

2025 and 2026 were also the all-time lows for true seniors qualifying for the NCAA tournament with 6 and 9, respectively.
Click to expand...
Hi wrestleknownothing! Might you have time to make the same chart, but have a third curve that is the sum of the green and the orange curves? I think that would help us see that the increase in red shirts helped wrestlers become champions in their ~fifth year who would not have become champions (as true seniors) in their ~fourth year
 
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El_Jefe

El_Jefe

Heisman
Oct 11, 2021
3,531
14,246
113
4-yr senior:

 
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Wrestleknownothing

All-Conference
Oct 30, 2021
1,842
4,890
113
Dogwelder said:
Hi wrestleknownothing! Might you have time to make the same chart, but have a third curve that is the sum of the green and the orange curves? I think that would help us see that the increase in red shirts helped wrestlers become champions in their ~fifth year who would not have become champions (as true seniors) in their ~fourth year
Click to expand...
Tomorrow or Monday.
 
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Wrestleknownothing

All-Conference
Oct 30, 2021
1,842
4,890
113
Dogwelder said:
Hi wrestleknownothing! Might you have time to make the same chart, but have a third curve that is the sum of the green and the orange curves? I think that would help us see that the increase in red shirts helped wrestlers become champions in their ~fifth year who would not have become champions (as true seniors) in their ~fourth year
Click to expand...



What I think it shows is the general decrease in relative influence wrestlers in their final year had from the early 80s to before COVID, even as the mix shifted from those in their fourth year of college to those in their fifth year. Then we get the COVID bump of sixth and seventh years guys followed by a return to the new normal.

I say relative influence because the seniors are still getting the most AA's, though they used to get the majority.
 
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