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Willie's Early Crystal Ball for 2027 on Rofkin

Psalm 1 guy

Psalm 1 guy

All-Conference
Nov 3, 2019
1,162
4,447
113
McScoreley said:
LL - 1
Ono - 3
Blaze - 3
SVN - 2
Kasak - 3
MM - 1
Henckel - 3
Rocco - 3
Barr - 1
Cole - 5
Click to expand...
Potentially nine (or ten?) making the semis with five of them losing? That would be a great PSU tournament in one respect, but going 4-5 or 4-6 in the semis would definitely be much worse than Penn State has statistically fared under Cael's tenure. Then again, maybe Willie has some of the guys losing before the semis and doing well in their consolation matches? Either way, I am excited for next season.
 
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McScoreley

All-Conference
Oct 31, 2021
358
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On the flip side, here is what Willie has for Ok State

Spratley - 5
Jax - 1
Raney - 6
Vega - 3
Robideau - 1
Dee - 5
Facundo - R12
Berge - R12 (he knew this was coming)
Merrill - 3
Nothing at 285 for now but they're going to get a ton here if they use Ross and they will if they don't have a one year stop gap
 
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El_Jefe

El_Jefe

Heisman
Oct 11, 2021
3,341
13,251
113
Psalm 1 guy said:
Potentially nine (or ten?) making the semis with five of them losing? That would be a great PSU tournament in one respect, but going 4-5 or 4-6 in the semis would definitely be much worse than Penn State has statistically fared under Cael's tenure. Then again, maybe Willie has some of the guys losing before the semis and doing well in their consolation matches? Either way, I am excited for next season.
Click to expand...
Helps us understand how conservative Willie's model is.
 
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Lil Nicky Scarfo

All-Conference
Jul 1, 2025
1,356
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Acacia said:
Obviously pre transfer portal.

Rank Team PTS AA
1 Penn St. 170 10
2 OK State 114 7

Interesting with weight class assumptions. Check it out.
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I hope all the Stilly Boys content has a downward adjustment effect on OSU’s point totals in out years just as the Buckeyes social media blitz in years past (Blackshirts, Young Bucks) caused a dip in their fortunes.
 
A

Acacia

Junior
Oct 30, 2021
151
235
43
Sorry in advance but I had to do it ;)

Iowa
125 - Deluca RD12
133 - Peterson RD16
141 - Bailey RD12
149 - Block 8th
157 - NADA
165 - NADA
174 - Arnold 5th
184 - Ferrari 4th
197 - NADA
285 - Kueter 2nd
 
P

PUR158

All-Conference
Feb 11, 2025
391
1,348
93
Acacia said:
Sorry in advance but I had to do it ;)

Iowa
125 - Deluca RD12
133 - Peterson RD16
141 - Bailey RD12
149 - Block 8th
157 - NADA
165 - NADA
174 - Arnold 5th
184 - Ferrari 4th
197 - NADA
285 - Kueter 2nd
Click to expand...
Sinking The Amazing Race GIF by CBS

Just gotta plug the holes and it will be fine.
 
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W

WV lion

All-Conference
Oct 17, 2021
1,402
1,937
113
McScoreley said:
On the flip side, here is what Willie has for Ok State

Spratley - 5
Jax - 1
Raney - 6
Vega - 3
Robideau - 1
Dee - 5
Facundo - R12
Berge - R12 (he knew this was coming)
Merrill - 3
Nothing at 285 for now but they're going to get a ton here if they use Ross and they will if they don't have a one year stop gap
Click to expand...
I just don't see robideau winning again.
 
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Efejle

All-Conference
Apr 30, 2023
895
2,096
93
McScoreley said:
On the flip side, here is what Willie has for Ok State

Spratley - 5
Jax - 1
Raney - 6
Vega - 3
Robideau - 1
Dee - 5
Facundo - R12
Berge - R12 (he knew this was coming)
Merrill - 3
Nothing at 285 for now but they're going to get a ton here if they use Ross and they will if they don't have a one year stop gap
Click to expand...
"A ton" from Ross? Didn't Cole beat him twice? Is this a freestyle thing only, where those wins are discounted? I can't recall exactly but how did Ross jump Cole without wrestling him yet other than those two losses.
 
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El_Jefe

El_Jefe

Heisman
Oct 11, 2021
3,341
13,251
113
Efejle said:
"A ton" from Ross? Didn't Cole beat him twice? Is this a freestyle thing only, where those wins are discounted? I can't recall exactly but how did Ross jump Cole without wrestling him yet other than those two losses.
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This could be a seeding/bracket-ism. Ross plausibly could get a better seed at nationals.

B12 HWT is gonna be really weak next year after Carroll. Ross and Coby Merrill, both true FR, are probably 2 and 3 in that order. After that, woof. Ross could enter NCAAs with only 1 or 2 losses depending on his exact schedule.

Meanwhile, B10 still has Feldman and Kueter, both presumably healthier than laat year.
 
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WillieTheBrain

All-Conference
Jun 29, 2025
221
1,391
93
El_Jefe said:
Helps us understand how conservative Willie's model is.
Click to expand...
do you mean 'conservative' in team points?

i won't argue with that too much but here's my defense - the values/points plugged in for placing are pretty close to perfect imo.

the problem is, psu is an outlier. they score more bonus than everyone else.

(this is why Duke scored more points than Robideau (20, which is under what i plug in 22)) despite finishing behind him.

and since psu puts so many in the finals, it gets compounded. the formula IS conservative, but only for PSU.

i'm not sure how you can, in a uniform system, account for that.

i'm aware of it though.
 
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JoeBagobagels

Senior
Jun 24, 2025
777
924
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WillieTheBrain said:
do you mean 'conservative' in team points?

i won't argue with that too much but here's my defense - the values/points plugged in for placing are pretty close to perfect imo.

the problem is, psu is an outlier. they score more bonus than everyone else.

(this is why Duke scored more points than Robideau (20, which is under what i plug in 22)) despite finishing behind him.

and since psu puts so many in the finals, it gets compounded. the formula IS conservative, but only for PSU.

i'm not sure how you can, in a uniform system, account for that.

i'm aware of it though.
Click to expand...
That's a fair take.
 
Reslo1

Reslo1

Senior
Oct 26, 2025
127
998
93
WV lion said:
I just don't see robideau winning again.
Click to expand...
I thought the same thing when Dean Heil won in 2016. I was like "that style will catch up with him next season", and then he won again in 2017. His scores at nationals that year were 6-5, 9-5, 6-5, 4-2, 6-3.

It might not be likely that Robideau wins again, but the precedent for a low scoring Cowboy winning a 2nd title with a boring style was set a decade ago.
 
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WillieTheBrain

All-Conference
Jun 29, 2025
221
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I plug in 22 for champs. here was this year's actuals

125 - Luke (21.5) - Under
133 - Jax (26) - Way Over
141 - Vega (22) - Even
149 - Valencia (21) - Under
157 - Robideau (20) - Under (minimum possible)
165 - Mitch (25.5) - Way Over
174 - Levi (26.5) - Way over (highest of the year)
184 - McEnelly (21.5) - Under
197 - Barr (25) - Way Over
285 - Trumble (23) - Over

6 over, 4 Under. but the overs are way over.
 
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El_Jefe

El_Jefe

Heisman
Oct 11, 2021
3,341
13,251
113
WillieTheBrain said:
do you mean 'conservative' in team points?

i won't argue with that too much but here's my defense - the values/points plugged in for placing are pretty close to perfect imo.

the problem is, psu is an outlier. they score more bonus than everyone else.

(this is why Duke scored more points than Robideau (20, which is under what i plug in 22)) despite finishing behind him.

and since psu puts so many in the finals, it gets compounded. the formula IS conservative, but only for PSU.

i'm not sure how you can, in a uniform system, account for that.

i'm aware of it though.
Click to expand...
It was a joke. 10 for 10 champs or GTFO.
 
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PennState1985

All-Conference
Mar 14, 2016
2,099
4,865
113
Acacia said:
And the coach of the year back to back is... (tic)

Ohio State

125 Bouzakis RD12
133 Davino 2nd
141 NADA
149 Shaw RD16
157 Stiles RD16
165 Cannon 3rd
174 NADA
184 Fishback 8th
197 Geog RD12
285 Feldman 1st
Click to expand...
... but, he did have three top 3s so he has that going for him.
 
V

vhsalum

All-Conference
Nov 14, 2002
1,083
2,403
113
Lil Nicky Scarfo said:
I hope all the Stilly Boys content has a downward adjustment effect on OSU’s point totals in out years just as the Buckeyes social media blitz in years past (Blackshirts, Young Bucks) caused a dip in their fortunes.
Click to expand...
The dip in tOSU's point totals is that Tom can't help himself. And when you don't have ubertalent - you can't just grind them into the ground.
 
J

jstross

Senior
Oct 28, 2005
252
567
93
Acacia said:
And the coach of the year back to back is... (tic)

Ohio State

125 Bouzakis RD12
133 Davino 2nd
141 NADA
149 Shaw RD16
157 Stiles RD16
165 Cannon 3rd
174 NADA
184 Fishback 8th
197 Geog RD12
285 Feldman 1st
Click to expand...
If this is next year word is Bouzakis will never see 125 again.
 
W

WV lion

All-Conference
Oct 17, 2021
1,402
1,937
113
LostInTransition said:
Nov 2, 3-0 loss to Renteria
Nov 16, 1-0 loss to Strickenberger
Dec 5, 2-1 tiebreaker loss to Provo
Jan 18, 2-0 loss to Seymour
Feb 2, DQ by stall out to Lilledahl
Click to expand...
That isn't the tournament. He only had one OT match in the tournament. Not counting the horrible performance in the finals.
 
Tom McAndrew

Tom McAndrew

BWI Staff
Staff member
Oct 27, 2021
77,603
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0:00 - Portal Activity
05:30 - Bennett Berge to Oklahoma State
10:30 - VRob in the Portal
16:55 - Rundown of Portal Activity
26:30 - Coaching News: Mytych Out, Ashnault In
29:15 - Iowa Has Their Guy
41:20 - First Crystal Ball for 2026-2027
45:00 - 125 lbs Crystal Ball
48:35 - 133 lbs - Does Jax Repeat?
53:45 - 141 lbs & 149 lbs
01:40:40 - 157lbs & 165 lbs
01:09:30 - 174lbs & 184 lbs
01:12:00 - 197lbs and 285 lbs
01:15:50 - 2026-2027 Team Race / Podium Picture
 
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El_Jefe

El_Jefe

Heisman
Oct 11, 2021
3,341
13,251
113
WV lion said:
He only wrestled that way against lilledahl
Click to expand...
From the scoresheets on Track:
R1 vs Rivera: F 5:35, winning 16-2
R2 vs Provo: 4-1, first-period takedown
Qtrs vs Ventresca: won in tie-breakers, 1-1 aftrr regulation
Semis vs Moran: 4-1, 3rd-period takedown
 
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