Honest assertions about the AI bubble

firegiver

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Sep 10, 2007
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Try a search for quantum computing risks to crypto and security

Quantum computing poses a major risk to cryptocurrency security by potentially breaking the asymmetric encryption (e.g., ECDSA) and hash functions (SHA-256) that secure wallets and validate blockchain transactions. Powerful quantum machines could derive private keys from public keys, allowing theft of assets and 51% attacks, likely disrupting blockchain networks in the coming years

Significant advancements are occurring, such as the construction of 96-qubit to 256-qubit machines and the integration of AI with quantum processing
Correct. Quantum computing breaks current encryption like nothing. All that crypto coins are, are the results of finding prime numbers. Quantum computers will be able to do that with a breeze, thus they will find MANY more coins in the crypto space. The whole market is controlled by the scarcity of coins, if the market is suddenly flooded with new coins, obviously they will depreciate.
 

fatpiggy

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Aug 18, 2002
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Do we all agree that the countries future depends on AI growth? There is no off ramp. If AI does not grow our economy out of our debt, the country will collapse upon itself within 20 years


 

firegiver

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Sep 10, 2007
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Do we all agree that the countries future depends on AI growth? There is no off ramp. If AI does not grow our economy out of our debt, the country will collapse upon itself within 20 years



I don't believe that AI will grow our economy out of a recession. I think it will hasten it. If you take these thought leaders words for it, AI is going to replace half of white collar jobs. That type of volatility will crash the housing market and our economy and maybe our country.
 
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Dadar

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And Cheeto will be ashes or dust while his soul resides in hell by then
 

Rastafarian

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Do we all agree that the countries future depends on AI growth? There is no off ramp. If AI does not grow our economy out of our debt, the country will collapse upon itself within 20 years




No. Would say that whoever wins the AI race will control the world. If we lose, it doesn’t matter what our debt is.

If AGI is achieved by a lab, they will race so far ahead of any other organization that no one will ever catch up. Warfare will be focused on data centers as that is the only thing that can slow them down.
 
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fatpiggy

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Aug 18, 2002
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I don't believe that AI will grow our economy out of a recession. I think it will hasten it. If you take these thought leaders words for it, AI is going to replace half of white collar jobs. That type of volatility will crash the housing market and our economy and maybe our country.
Meh. We have heard they are coming for your jobs for years. Of course some will be disrupted, it happens to everyone. There are no more elevator operators etc.

If you don't see AI as the future growth do you think there is something else that will grow us out of our debt situation? I don't see any appetite to cut spending.
 

Rastafarian

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Meh. We have heard they are coming for your jobs for years. Of course some will be disrupted, it happens to everyone. There are no more elevator operators etc.

If you don't see AI as the future growth do you think there is something else that will grow us out of our debt situation? I don't see any appetite to cut spending.
Anthropics CEO says we will likely see a multi-year period of 10%+ gdp growth due to AI. The challenge will be if we actually tax those who benefit, and what social services do we need to support all the unemployed.

AI is coming for virtually every white collar job. If you are in law school right now, you are screwed. If you are entry level consulting or investment banking, you are screwed. If you are some middle manager, you are big time screwed.
 

firegiver

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Anthropics CEO says we will likely see a multi-year period of 10%+ gdp growth due to AI. The challenge will be if we actually tax those who benefit, and what social services do we need to support all the unemployed.

AI is coming for virtually every white collar job. If you are in law school right now, you are screwed. If you are entry level consulting or investment banking, you are screwed. If you are some middle manager, you are big time screwed.
correct
For context I'm implementing AI-DLC models today that will eat at least 50% of our engineering pods head count.
As these capabilities grow, its going to be a blood bath for the middle class. I don't see a way we don't actually fail as a economy unless the owners of these AI companies aren't heavily regulated and taxed.
 

fatpiggy

Heisman
Aug 18, 2002
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Anthropics CEO says we will likely see a multi-year period of 10%+ gdp growth due to AI. The challenge will be if we actually tax those who benefit, and what social services do we need to support all the unemployed.

AI is coming for virtually every white collar job. If you are in law school right now, you are screwed. If you are entry level consulting or investment banking, you are screwed. If you are some middle manager, you are big time screwed.
Yeah, i'm not convinced everyone will be unemployed. People will have to change jobs, sure. That's a part of progress.

I don't feel the need to immediately tax anything.

I think AI will turn out to be a tool that increases productivity. It will disrupt, but humans will be just fine.
 

fatpiggy

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Aug 18, 2002
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correct
For context I'm implementing AI-DLC models today that will eat at least 50% of our engineering pods head count.
As these capabilities grow, its going to be a blood bath for the middle class. I don't see a way we don't actually fail as a economy unless the owners of these AI companies aren't heavily regulated and taxed.
I don't like how the immediate response is to regulate and tax.

You don't even know what we have yet, but you (plural) want to regulate and tax?

I'd peg you as a control freak in real life. How did i do?
 

fatpiggy

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Aug 18, 2002
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That big bad AI is coming and it's going to kill all of you unless you let us tax you and make the rules for you. The intelectually superior democrats like colorado tiger will come in with their intellect and save everyone. Just send them a couple more dollars. :eyeroll:

Government f ucks up everything it touches.
 

firegiver

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Sep 10, 2007
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I don't like how the immediate response is to regulate and tax.

You don't even know what we have yet, but you (plural) want to regulate and tax?

I'd peg you as a control freak in real life. How did i do?
Pretty badly. I'm a humanist who cares about others. I'm not a control freak, I just believe in accountability. If an industry disruption is going to bankrupt half the white collar workers in America, then we need a plan. Not just wait and see what happens. You know who is control freaks? Lobbysts and Corporations who want to deregulate everything and consume all the profit of all their workers into LLM's and destroy their jobs for shareholder gain.
Those are control freaks.
 

firegiver

Heisman
Sep 10, 2007
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That big bad AI is coming and it's going to kill all of you unless you let us tax you and make the rules for you. The intelectually superior democrats like colorado tiger will come in with their intellect and save everyone. Just send them a couple more dollars. :eyeroll:

Government f ucks up everything it touches.
Government doomers think the water they drink everyday was safe because its good for shareholder value.
 
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fatpiggy

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Pretty badly. I'm a humanist who cares about others. I'm not a control freak, I just believe in accountability. If an industry disruption is going to bankrupt half the white collar workers in America, then we need a plan. Not just wait and see what happens. You know who is control freaks? Lobbysts and Corporations who want to deregulate everything and consume all the profit of all their workers into LLM's and destroy their jobs for shareholder gain.
Those are control freaks.
You are trying to control the outcome, before you even know what the product is.
 
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firegiver

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You are trying to control the outcome, before you even know what the product is.
I think we all should be focused on the outcome right? In business, whatever the product or the process is, we measure it on the outcome.
Also, we use frameworks, risk analysis and frequent metric based checks along the way. Thus, we course correct our product or process to align with the outcome we want.

I guess thats why I'm in management. But also, this government works for the people. Private companies work for their owners.
 
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fatpiggy

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I think we all should be focused on the outcome right? In business, whatever the product or the process is, we measure it on the outcome.
Also, we use frameworks, risk analysis and frequent metric based checks along the way. Thus, we course correct our product or process to align with the outcome we want.

I guess thats why I'm in management. But also, this government works for the people. Private companies work for their owners.
Sounds like we might be too late.

 

fatpiggy

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Huge news and should make everyone stop and recalculate the ROI on all these datacenter investments.
Why would that change the ROI on data centers?

Personally I have bet on that being a bunch of BS. I loaded up on a bunch of Micron earlier this week.



They made it cheaper, great. They still can't satisfy demand. Micron is a yuge buy here ($360). Let's revisit this post in 6 months.

I also think the software apocolyse is overblown. Bought a lot of MSFT ($370) also.
 

baltimorened

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I don't like how the immediate response is to regulate and tax.

You don't even know what we have yet, but you (plural) want to regulate and tax?

I'd peg you as a control freak in real life. How did i do?
isn't the first reaction normally to regulate and tax.

by the way, are we the only country working on AI? How are other countries going to dela with it, or don't we care about its impact on jobs and costs? Will AI help reduce costs, and is that a help for affordability?
Pretty badly. I'm a humanist who cares about others. I'm not a control freak, I just believe in accountability. If an industry disruption is going to bankrupt half the white collar workers in America, then we need a plan. Not just wait and see what happens. You know who is control freaks? Lobbysts and Corporations who want to deregulate everything and consume all the profit of all their workers into LLM's and destroy their jobs for shareholder gain.
Those are control freaks.
I'm not sure you really understand the role of lobbyists
 

firegiver

Heisman
Sep 10, 2007
73,249
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Why would that change the ROI on data centers?

Personally I have bet on that being a bunch of BS. I loaded up on a bunch of Micron earlier this week.



They made it cheaper, great. They still can't satisfy demand. Micron is a yuge buy here ($360). Let's revisit this post in 6 months.

I also think the software apocolyse is overblown. Bought a lot of MSFT ($370) also.
Because you don't need huge expensive compute to get the same outcome anymore.
 

fatpiggy

Heisman
Aug 18, 2002
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Because you don't need huge expensive compute to get the same outcome anymore.
It's kind of like traffic. If you widen the road and make the road nicer, you will actually get more traffic, not less.

If you build it, they will come. Demand is still insatiable.
 

firegiver

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Sep 10, 2007
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It's kind of like traffic. If you widen the road and make the road nicer, you will actually get more traffic, not less.

If you build it, they will come. Demand is still insatiable.
This is a strange argument to make from the point of view of not understanding what google has published and not understanding the actual factual financials of the AI circle jerk thats currently going on.

I believe, there is a plan in place for some of these companies to go bankrupt and be acquired. The purpose being, that the real value is in all the prompting data that users have put in, it would be illegal to buy that raw data due to privacy laws, but an acquisition is totally legal.

Anywho, the financials for data centers and the numbers being slung around were crazy. Things have calmed a bit and this news hit like a breath of air of sanity.

source so you can't say I don't know what im talking about: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/22/openai-data-center-pivot-underscores-wall-street-ipo-concerns.html
 
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sleepy64561

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Serious question guys: Who's using the AI tools at work?
I've had a lot of successes recently and want to hear some anecdotal stories.

I've implemented self documentation tools across a division for development teams. Designed the thing myself and it works with copilot or kiro.

Anecdotally, I've seen the C-suites suddenly shift from rolling out these tools to collecting data on its use and ROI. 2026 is going to have tons of opportunity for companies that help setup and implement new ways of working in other companies. I'm approached ALL THE DAMN TIME now by companies trying to kick in the door to do what I'm already doing. Which is spec driven development.
I use Claude code at the terminal for a lot of work (I’m a computational scientist), and use ChatGPT and Gemini for more everyday things such as quickly converting an email into a calendar event.

I’m a fan of AI agents, but to answer the threads original topic, I do think AI is overvalued, primarily because not enough people actually understand it and most of the ones that do understand it are trying to sell it.

I’m also a boglehead though, so I only invest in index funds. However, if there is in fact an AI bubble, I don’t think any investor will escape its ramifications until a few years (at least).
 

sleepy64561

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Yah I've been following quantum for a while. Its absolutely incredible technology and if and when it really arrives in the consumer market its going to be a big deal.
What about crypto markets that get flooded with new coins due to quantum computing mining?
I feel like the thermodynamics required for quantum computing will make consumer quantum computing take forever (i.e., probably not in our lifetimes). But I bet we could have maybe something more along the lines of a city or county quantum computer that people could use with a quantum version of Slurm workload manager.
 
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firegiver

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I feel like the thermodynamics required for quantum computing will make consumer quantum computing take forever (i.e., probably not in our lifetimes). But I bet we could have maybe something more along the lines of a city or county quantum computer that people could use with a quantum version of Slurm workload manager.
Whoever launches the first one and applies crypto mining will be a billionaire overnight
 

fatpiggy

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Aug 18, 2002
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Ai demand is insatiable. We can’t even make enough electricity to supply the data centers.

The limiting factor is not demand. I’m extremely bullish

 

sleepy64561

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Whoever launches the first one and applies crypto mining will be a billionaire overnight
I agree that the first person/group/lab with an effective quantum computer should be able to break all the cryptography behind blockchain, but they probably wouldn’t be able to do it incognito.

This is more of an economic question, so I’m not qualified to say one way or the other, but if they have all the major crypto then it’s probably not actually worth anything anymore, because who would buy it from them if they could just break in and get it back?
 

sleepy64561

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Ai demand is insatiable. We can’t even make enough electricity to supply the data centers.

The limiting factor is not demand. I’m extremely bullish


I just skimmed the tweet you shared, so not 100% sure I interpreted it perfectly, but I think you’re misunderstanding where the demand is coming from in this scenario.

Until there’s a new breakthrough with underlying architecture, the only way current leading models can improve is via more parameters and more data. It doesn’t necessarily mean that there’s more demand from users or power users.

This is primarily how it could end up being a economic bubble imo, and a major reason why I respectfully disagree with @Rastafarian about these leading AI companies ability to quickly turn enough profits to justify their valuations.
 

fatpiggy

Heisman
Aug 18, 2002
23,486
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I just skimmed the tweet you shared, so not 100% sure I interpreted it perfectly, but I think you’re misunderstanding where the demand is coming from in this scenario.

Until there’s a new breakthrough with underlying architecture, the only way current leading models can improve is via more parameters and more data. It doesn’t necessarily mean that there’s more demand from users or power users.

This is primarily how it could end up being a economic bubble imo, and a major reason why I respectfully disagree with @Rastafarian about these leading AI companies ability to quickly turn enough profits to justify their valuations.

We will check back 6 months from now.

NVDA is trading about $170 now. I’m playing from the long side