I was at the game Center Court, Section A Row 15 behind the players' families. Three more family members were stuck in nosebleed seats, but when the Georgia fans left, we all moved to Section B Row 9. It was hot, but my family, who started in Row 38, said it was suffocating up there.
I think that Iowa has a tough time against scrappy little teams when games are called loosely. Ava had someone virtually trying to knock her over the whole game inside, but nothing was called. Not blaming the refs, but that's the kind of game where we underperform.
I gave Claude AI this Prompt: Write a post analyzing Iowa's play against a scrappy little team. Include other games this season against teams that play similarly. Provide that analysis in a format that I can paste into the above forum. The Minnesota upset (91-85 over #10 Iowa at Carver), the Northwestern scare, the UCLA blowout, the guard struggles, and the turnover/three-point defense issues are all confirmed.
Claude's Response:
That game today was uncomfortable, but it wasn't surprising — and that's the more concerning part.
Iowa has shown all season that it has one authentic Achilles heel: quick, guard-heavy teams that play disruptive defense and don't mind chucking threes. FDU fit that profile almost perfectly. They came in averaging 26+ three-point attempts per game and racked up nine steals today. The result was predictable. Iowa's perimeter players were harassed into irrelevance for three quarters, Feuerbach went 0-6, Houston contributed nothing offensively, and the bench combined for two points. Meanwhile we couldn't guard their shooters — 10 made threes against us is a disaster by any measure, especially from a 15 seed.
This isn't a one-game aberration. Look at the pattern this season:
At Northern Iowa in November, a road game against a scrappy MVC team that presses and causes chaos, we needed to grind out a win and it was never comfortable. Minnesota came into Carver in February ranked lower than us, playing with a backcourt that pushes tempo and forces turnovers, and they walked out with a 91-85 upset. Minnesota's defense was allowing only 54.8 points per game, first in the Big Ten, and their guard Grace Grocholski was leading the nation in three-point percentage going in. That's a different flavor of the same problem: Iowa's bigs dominated the paint but the perimeter game collapsed under pressure and we couldn't contain their shooters. Northwestern in January was more of the same — Grace Sullivan put up 28 points against us and we were down to a six-point game late before finishing it off. And then there's the UCLA blowout, which was a worst-case version of what happens when a faster, longer, guard-heavy team commits fully to disrupting our offense before it gets organized.
The common denominator across all of these isn't talent. Ava Heiden is legitimate — she's going to be a problem for anyone. Stuelke's 16 rebounds today tells you who wins the inside battle against every opponent we'll see in this bracket. The problem is structural: this offense has no reliable three-point shooting, which means teams can pack the paint, play physical on the wings, force our guards into bad decisions, and live with the consequences. Iowa shot 1-13 from three today against a team allowing 51 points per game this year. You cannot have that in the tournament.
The free throw shooting (58.6% today) is its own conversation and also not new.
If we get Georgia in the second round — and based on the bracket that's a real possibility — we're going to see the same blueprint. Georgia's coached by former Hawkeye Katie Abrahamson-Henderson and plays a stifling defensive style that has given us trouble before. They're not going to try to outrebound us. They're going to make our guards beat them, the same way FDU did, the same way Minnesota did.
Ava was special today (29 points, 69% shooting, 7-7 from the line) and she literally carried us. The question going forward is whether we can ever build a complete team around what she and Stuelke do, or whether we're going to keep white-knuckling our way through games that shouldn't be close.