BACATOLOGY 3/9 NCAA TOURNEY OUTLOOK
- Thread starter bac2therac
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Everything is on Peacock these days. $$$$$
Ole Miss keeps churning along with an upset of Georgia. Next up Alabama
Sheesh we finally found a bubble school ready to step up. Oklahoma up on A&M 43-23 with less than 2 minutes before half
J Will best game of year and Georgetown going to beat Villanova
You know I can see Nova more as an 8..really dont deserve a 7 with just 1 win vs the field
You know I can see Nova more as an 8..really dont deserve a 7 with just 1 win vs the field
Big East consistently looks like a mid major with their 3 bids.
Hate to think what this conference would look like without UCOnn in it.
Friday Semis doubleheader back in the day wound be the highlight of the tourney which has been degraded to having Seton Hall and GTown this year
That being said - Seton Hall has their chance to get closer to the tourney with a win tonight
Just some housekeeping from the late games...
San Diego State and New Mexico won their quarterfinal MWC game to set up a semifinal clash tonight
Villanova stunned by Georgetown and we shall see if they drop to 8/9 line
Oklahoma waxed A&M 83-63 but remain on the outside looking in. Not a big fan of A&Ms profile because of their 3-10 mark vs the field but they probably scrape in but still could wind up in Dayton.
Update WAB with SOR
Above the fray
36. Santa Clara 41
37. Miami (Ohio) 28
38. Iowa 40
39. Saint Louis 34
40. Texas A&M 36
41. Missouri 39
Last 4 in
42. VCU 42
43. North Carolina State 46
44. Auburn 43
45. SMU 49
OUT
46. Texas 45
47. Oklahoma 44
48. Mc Neese* IN THE FIELD AS SOUTHLAND AQ 48
49. San Diego State 56
50. New Mexico 54
51. Oklahoma State 53
52. Virginia Tech 55
53. Indiana 50
54. Seton Hall 47
55. California 57
56. Arizona State 59
57. Stanford 63
58. Akron 58
59. South Florida 51
The WAB has been updated. With Akron replacing Miami Ohio as the MAC AQ, one spot has been taken so instead of 46 being the cut off, its now 45. So Miami Ohio did take a dip but only down to 37, I think they were 33 yesterday. Its more than enough to justify the bid along with the SOR which is 28. The Miami NET down to 64 would be the highest at large team in the field. Its likely they will be an 11, the question is whether as a stand alone 11 or a play in Dayton 11. I believe any further bid stealers would push them to Dayton. I would put their chances of getting in above the infamous 95% Rutgers lock from 2023 but short of 99.999%
This is the 2nd year WAB is on the team sheet. Last year in a year full of a few bid stealers, Xavier at 49 was selected but 2 schools rated higher West Virginia at 42 and Indiana at 49 were not selected. I know all the talk was about a bloated Texas getting in but the inclusion of Xavier over West Virginia was hard to justify based on the principles of quad 1 wins, wins vs field, and lastly WAB. NCAA has specifically pointed that the WAB will play a big role. I do not think its an absolute cut off and there will be an outlier and the NCAA can talk their way out of it. One thing is sure though, if your WAB/SOR are beyond 50 you are going to have a hard time making a case. Watch the 2 MW schools because they play tonight and one of them is going to move up. Will it matter at all? Some say the committee is no longer looking..are they saving a spot for the MW runner up?
Right now Auburn is in the field according to wab and sor with a 17-16 mark but easily can go by the wayside. The 3 schools of Auburn, SMU, and Texas appear very close and might come down to an individuals preference.
Oklahoma now an intriguing possibility with the collapsed bubble has gained but is their resume enough and many believe the committee will not be looking at any further additional wins. You cannot make a resume in a week. Have seen this before with a bunch of SEC schools in the past like A&M and Vandy. OU's resume is not as good as Texas was last year during their mini run. Also they have an issue with a bloated loss total and would seem to be a cut below both Auburn and Texas so there is nothing compelling that should say the Sooners should go over those 2 just because they are playing well recently. Yet here I am putting them in the field. SOR/WAB at 44/47 4-9 Q1, 10-14 Q2, 12-14 Q1/2/3 5-10 vs field, no losses outside Q2, sos of 32/126 is okay enough. do they have to win today vs Arkansas to stay in the field..maybe if it even matters..but being last team in they are vulnerable to a bid stealer
San Diego State and New Mexico won their quarterfinal MWC game to set up a semifinal clash tonight
Villanova stunned by Georgetown and we shall see if they drop to 8/9 line
Oklahoma waxed A&M 83-63 but remain on the outside looking in. Not a big fan of A&Ms profile because of their 3-10 mark vs the field but they probably scrape in but still could wind up in Dayton.
Update WAB with SOR
Above the fray
36. Santa Clara 41
37. Miami (Ohio) 28
38. Iowa 40
39. Saint Louis 34
40. Texas A&M 36
41. Missouri 39
Last 4 in
42. VCU 42
43. North Carolina State 46
44. Auburn 43
45. SMU 49
OUT
46. Texas 45
47. Oklahoma 44
48. Mc Neese* IN THE FIELD AS SOUTHLAND AQ 48
49. San Diego State 56
50. New Mexico 54
51. Oklahoma State 53
52. Virginia Tech 55
53. Indiana 50
54. Seton Hall 47
55. California 57
56. Arizona State 59
57. Stanford 63
58. Akron 58
59. South Florida 51
The WAB has been updated. With Akron replacing Miami Ohio as the MAC AQ, one spot has been taken so instead of 46 being the cut off, its now 45. So Miami Ohio did take a dip but only down to 37, I think they were 33 yesterday. Its more than enough to justify the bid along with the SOR which is 28. The Miami NET down to 64 would be the highest at large team in the field. Its likely they will be an 11, the question is whether as a stand alone 11 or a play in Dayton 11. I believe any further bid stealers would push them to Dayton. I would put their chances of getting in above the infamous 95% Rutgers lock from 2023 but short of 99.999%
This is the 2nd year WAB is on the team sheet. Last year in a year full of a few bid stealers, Xavier at 49 was selected but 2 schools rated higher West Virginia at 42 and Indiana at 49 were not selected. I know all the talk was about a bloated Texas getting in but the inclusion of Xavier over West Virginia was hard to justify based on the principles of quad 1 wins, wins vs field, and lastly WAB. NCAA has specifically pointed that the WAB will play a big role. I do not think its an absolute cut off and there will be an outlier and the NCAA can talk their way out of it. One thing is sure though, if your WAB/SOR are beyond 50 you are going to have a hard time making a case. Watch the 2 MW schools because they play tonight and one of them is going to move up. Will it matter at all? Some say the committee is no longer looking..are they saving a spot for the MW runner up?
Right now Auburn is in the field according to wab and sor with a 17-16 mark but easily can go by the wayside. The 3 schools of Auburn, SMU, and Texas appear very close and might come down to an individuals preference.
Oklahoma now an intriguing possibility with the collapsed bubble has gained but is their resume enough and many believe the committee will not be looking at any further additional wins. You cannot make a resume in a week. Have seen this before with a bunch of SEC schools in the past like A&M and Vandy. OU's resume is not as good as Texas was last year during their mini run. Also they have an issue with a bloated loss total and would seem to be a cut below both Auburn and Texas so there is nothing compelling that should say the Sooners should go over those 2 just because they are playing well recently. Yet here I am putting them in the field. SOR/WAB at 44/47 4-9 Q1, 10-14 Q2, 12-14 Q1/2/3 5-10 vs field, no losses outside Q2, sos of 32/126 is okay enough. do they have to win today vs Arkansas to stay in the field..maybe if it even matters..but being last team in they are vulnerable to a bid stealer
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If Auburn gets in the whole system is rigged.
Wins have to matter more than strength of schedule especially when Power Conferences make it so difficult to schedule mid majors.
Hope A10 has an upset to knock Auburn completely out.
Also rooting for Texas to cancel out Auburn to placate the SEC’s b*tching and moaning.
Wins have to matter more than strength of schedule especially when Power Conferences make it so difficult to schedule mid majors.
Hope A10 has an upset to knock Auburn completely out.
Also rooting for Texas to cancel out Auburn to placate the SEC’s b*tching and moaning.
3/13 Morning Update
ONE SEEDS: Duke*, Michigan*, Arizona*, Florida*
TWO SEEDS: Connecticut*, Michigan State, Houston, Illinois
THREE SEEDS: Iowa State, Nebraska, Purdue, Gonzaga*
FOUR SEEDS: Alabama, Kansas, Virginia, Arkansas
FIVE SEEDS: Vanderbilt, Texas Tech, Saint John’s, North Carolina
SIX SEEDS: Wisconsin, Tennessee, Louisville, BYU
SEVEN SEEDS: Miami (Fla), Kentucky, Clemson, Saint Mary's
EIGHT SEEDS: Utah State*, UCLA, Georgia, Villanova
NINE SEEDS: Ohio State, TCU, Saint Louis*, Iowa
TEN SEEDS: Central Florida, Missouri, Texas A&M, Santa Clara
ELEVEN SEEDS: South Florida*, Miami (Ohio), North Carolina State/VCU, SMU/Oklahoma
TWELVE SEEDS: Mc Neese*, Akron*, Yale*, Northern Iowa*
THIRTEEN SEEDS: High Point*, Utah Valley State*, Sam Houston State*, Hofstra*
FOURTEEN SEEDS: North Dakota State*, UC Irvine*, Troy*, Wright State*
FIFTEEN SEEDS: Tennessee State*, Idaho*, Furman*, Queens*
SIXTEEN SEEDS: Siena*, Long Island*, Howard*/Lehigh*, UMBC*/Southern*
FIRST FOUR BYES: MISSOURI ,TEXAS A&M, SANTA CLARA, MIAMI (OHIO)
LAST 4 IN: OKLAHOMA, SMU, VCU, NORTH CAROLINA STATE
FIRST 4 OUT: TEXAS, AUBURN, NEW MEXICO, SAN DIEGO STATE
NEXT 4 OUT: INDIANA, OKLAHOMA STATE, VIRGINIA TECH, SETON HALL
ON DECK: STANFORD, CALIFORNIA, TULSA, FLORIDA STATE
ONE SEEDS: Duke*, Michigan*, Arizona*, Florida*
TWO SEEDS: Connecticut*, Michigan State, Houston, Illinois
THREE SEEDS: Iowa State, Nebraska, Purdue, Gonzaga*
FOUR SEEDS: Alabama, Kansas, Virginia, Arkansas
FIVE SEEDS: Vanderbilt, Texas Tech, Saint John’s, North Carolina
SIX SEEDS: Wisconsin, Tennessee, Louisville, BYU
SEVEN SEEDS: Miami (Fla), Kentucky, Clemson, Saint Mary's
EIGHT SEEDS: Utah State*, UCLA, Georgia, Villanova
NINE SEEDS: Ohio State, TCU, Saint Louis*, Iowa
TEN SEEDS: Central Florida, Missouri, Texas A&M, Santa Clara
ELEVEN SEEDS: South Florida*, Miami (Ohio), North Carolina State/VCU, SMU/Oklahoma
TWELVE SEEDS: Mc Neese*, Akron*, Yale*, Northern Iowa*
THIRTEEN SEEDS: High Point*, Utah Valley State*, Sam Houston State*, Hofstra*
FOURTEEN SEEDS: North Dakota State*, UC Irvine*, Troy*, Wright State*
FIFTEEN SEEDS: Tennessee State*, Idaho*, Furman*, Queens*
SIXTEEN SEEDS: Siena*, Long Island*, Howard*/Lehigh*, UMBC*/Southern*
FIRST FOUR BYES: MISSOURI ,TEXAS A&M, SANTA CLARA, MIAMI (OHIO)
LAST 4 IN: OKLAHOMA, SMU, VCU, NORTH CAROLINA STATE
FIRST 4 OUT: TEXAS, AUBURN, NEW MEXICO, SAN DIEGO STATE
NEXT 4 OUT: INDIANA, OKLAHOMA STATE, VIRGINIA TECH, SETON HALL
ON DECK: STANFORD, CALIFORNIA, TULSA, FLORIDA STATE
no..Akron will not be higher than a 12. McNeese and USF likely battle for the 11
im going to say im putting Oklahoma in and editing my above comments
Nice!!! Go Oklahoma!!
Committee does seem a bit two faced when they say “entire body of work” and last year seemed to suggest that conference tournaments games didn’t matter. Huh?
Some other thoughts:
1. Should Committee go back to considering last 10 games, last 7 games, last 5?
2. With Texas Tech missing best player, how far does seed drop? Or is Iowa State that good. If Texas Tech has dropped that far it is unfair advantage to 1 seed that might get them?
3. Has there ever been a better “quarter finals” then today’s B1G?
4. Given the B1G gauntlet might it be time to give up the last tournament game played. B1G hasn’t won it in 25 years. Every other conference has more time to prepare and rest. Is the TV money really worth it?
Committee does seem a bit two faced when they say “entire body of work” and last year seemed to suggest that conference tournaments games didn’t matter. Huh?
Some other thoughts:
1. Should Committee go back to considering last 10 games, last 7 games, last 5?
2. With Texas Tech missing best player, how far does seed drop? Or is Iowa State that good. If Texas Tech has dropped that far it is unfair advantage to 1 seed that might get them?
3. Has there ever been a better “quarter finals” then today’s B1G?
4. Given the B1G gauntlet might it be time to give up the last tournament game played. B1G hasn’t won it in 25 years. Every other conference has more time to prepare and rest. Is the TV money really worth it?
getting to the nitty gritty
common wisdom is that the field is just about set. There may be a wait and see along the cut line like with the MW bubbles. Seeding will be what they will be working on and do not expect major shifts
Saint Louis/George WashingtonL Billikens metrics slip by the day. SOR/WAB down to 34/39 not in danger of missing the field but would be close to Dayton with a loss today
Ohio State/Michigan: Buckeyes are up to a 9 seed, could push to an 8 but tough to get higher than that. Michigan still in the running for overall #1
Kentucky/Florida: Cats likely stuck as a 7 with outside shot at 6. Florida looks locked as a 1.
Wisconsin/Illinois: Illini straddling the 2/3 while the Badgers are straddling 5/6
Tennessee/Vanderbilt: Vols a 6 trying to be 5. Vandy a 5 trying to be a 4.
VCU/Duquense: Rams still sitting on last 4 in with a middling Q1/2 of 5-7 cannot afford to lose today
Seton Hall/Saint John's: St Johns looks solid as a 5. Pirates profile is pretty poor and they actually fell a spot in the pecking order. A win today will move them closer but it still will not be enough
Purdue/Nebraska: Purdue trying to hold onto that 3 seed. Loser could drop to 4?
Iowa State/Arizona: Cats locked in at 1 but Cyclones are very close to grabbing that last 2 from Illinois and a win here might do it
Miami/Virginia: Virgina a 4 going to be tough to move to 3. Hurricanes have been gliding up the seed list and a win here and 6 is a possibility
Ole Miss/Alabama: Rebels at 14-19 try to keep their Cinderella run going. Tide is a 4 wanting to get to 3 but might not be able to dislodge Gonzaga or Purdue
Kent State/Akron: Akron is currently the projected AQ from MAC but its their only chance for a bid
Georgetown/UConn: Hoyas are a potential bid stealer lurking. Huskies have a 2 clinched.
UCLA/Michigan State: Sparty locked as a 2. Bruins straddling the 7/8 and a win here likely enough to get them to that coveted 7 and out of the path of playing a one seed
Clemson/Duke: Tigers have been moving up the seed list and a 6 could be in range with a win here. A loss here could put Duke's overall #1 seed in jeopardy.
Kansas/Houston: Going to be tough for Jayhawks to move up to a 3 but they cannot do it without this win. Houston locked as a 2.
Oklahoma/Arkansas: new darling OU is right at the cut line but will the committee even be paying attention. Winning today helps but just how much? Arkansas need this one to get on that 4 line
Nevada/Utah State: Projected MWC AQ Aggies on the 8/9 line but a loss here throws them in the at large pool and down to a 10 or even gasp Dayton. Winning the MWC tourney puts them in play for a 7
New Mexico/San Diego State: I cannot say if the winner of this game is in great shape for an at large but the loser is definitely out so call it a LOSER OUT/WINNER STAYS IN LAST 4 IN game.
common wisdom is that the field is just about set. There may be a wait and see along the cut line like with the MW bubbles. Seeding will be what they will be working on and do not expect major shifts
Saint Louis/George WashingtonL Billikens metrics slip by the day. SOR/WAB down to 34/39 not in danger of missing the field but would be close to Dayton with a loss today
Ohio State/Michigan: Buckeyes are up to a 9 seed, could push to an 8 but tough to get higher than that. Michigan still in the running for overall #1
Kentucky/Florida: Cats likely stuck as a 7 with outside shot at 6. Florida looks locked as a 1.
Wisconsin/Illinois: Illini straddling the 2/3 while the Badgers are straddling 5/6
Tennessee/Vanderbilt: Vols a 6 trying to be 5. Vandy a 5 trying to be a 4.
VCU/Duquense: Rams still sitting on last 4 in with a middling Q1/2 of 5-7 cannot afford to lose today
Seton Hall/Saint John's: St Johns looks solid as a 5. Pirates profile is pretty poor and they actually fell a spot in the pecking order. A win today will move them closer but it still will not be enough
Purdue/Nebraska: Purdue trying to hold onto that 3 seed. Loser could drop to 4?
Iowa State/Arizona: Cats locked in at 1 but Cyclones are very close to grabbing that last 2 from Illinois and a win here might do it
Miami/Virginia: Virgina a 4 going to be tough to move to 3. Hurricanes have been gliding up the seed list and a win here and 6 is a possibility
Ole Miss/Alabama: Rebels at 14-19 try to keep their Cinderella run going. Tide is a 4 wanting to get to 3 but might not be able to dislodge Gonzaga or Purdue
Kent State/Akron: Akron is currently the projected AQ from MAC but its their only chance for a bid
Georgetown/UConn: Hoyas are a potential bid stealer lurking. Huskies have a 2 clinched.
UCLA/Michigan State: Sparty locked as a 2. Bruins straddling the 7/8 and a win here likely enough to get them to that coveted 7 and out of the path of playing a one seed
Clemson/Duke: Tigers have been moving up the seed list and a 6 could be in range with a win here. A loss here could put Duke's overall #1 seed in jeopardy.
Kansas/Houston: Going to be tough for Jayhawks to move up to a 3 but they cannot do it without this win. Houston locked as a 2.
Oklahoma/Arkansas: new darling OU is right at the cut line but will the committee even be paying attention. Winning today helps but just how much? Arkansas need this one to get on that 4 line
Nevada/Utah State: Projected MWC AQ Aggies on the 8/9 line but a loss here throws them in the at large pool and down to a 10 or even gasp Dayton. Winning the MWC tourney puts them in play for a 7
New Mexico/San Diego State: I cannot say if the winner of this game is in great shape for an at large but the loser is definitely out so call it a LOSER OUT/WINNER STAYS IN LAST 4 IN game.
How about those folks trying to get to MSG on NJ Transit yesterday? I heard Joe Nolan missed the Seton Hall game because of delays and then the train just decided to head back to Bay Head. I hear NJ Transit is having problems today also.
the issue with Oklahoma will be where they even on the radar of the selection committee to start the week...they were 9th team out on my list and not even in my earlier updates. We have seen this in the SEC tourney before with Vandy and Texas A&M making late runs but left short
potential bid stealer lurking in A10.....GW only down 78-76 to St Louie with 2:21 to go
Great stuff. Seeding is fun and the booby prize of the 8/9 seed. Rather 7-10.
Maybe but one thing ive learned dont overreact to one game..full scrub full body of work..we shall see
Vandy handles Tennessee as they try to become a 4. Vols look more like a 6 but depends on whether they want to ding Tar Heels
IIRC in the past often the committee has made up their minds before these conference tourneys, or at least before the weekend. We assume teams still jockeying or fighting to get in the field and committee made up their mind Friday.
Eh I think it's moreso the finals that are ignored not really the quarterfinals
Basically..thats why even though I like Oklahoma in they may not have done enough BEFORE Tuesday