BACATOLOGY 3/9 NCAA TOURNEY OUTLOOK
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
UMass wins 87-83
Miami Ohio unbeaten season falls to the wayside. 28-1. Will still get a NCAA tourney bid especially given how bad the bubble is. Akron now moves in as a 12 seed
Tough to figure where they might place Miami. They could be an 11 stand alone or they can send them to Dayton which would be like giving them a home game so not sure they want to put the other 11 at such a disadvantage
Texas bumped out of the field for now but it very well could be Auburn or SMU
This is March
Miami Ohio unbeaten season falls to the wayside. 28-1. Will still get a NCAA tourney bid especially given how bad the bubble is. Akron now moves in as a 12 seed
Tough to figure where they might place Miami. They could be an 11 stand alone or they can send them to Dayton which would be like giving them a home game so not sure they want to put the other 11 at such a disadvantage
Texas bumped out of the field for now but it very well could be Auburn or SMU
This is March
careful vcu is just 5-7 in Q1/2 and 1-5 vs the field and if USF doesnt win CUSA tourney that drops to 0-5
From what I can tell,
SEC (9) Florida, Vandy, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Texas A&M and Missouri(9-11/12-11) over Auburn(11-15), Texas(10-14)
BigXII (8) Arizona, Houston, Iowa St, Texas Tech, Kansas, BYU, TCU, and UCF(11-10/15-10) over Cincy(11-14), WVU(10-14) or Oklahoma St(12-14)
B1G (9) Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, Mich St, Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio St, and UCLA, Indiana or USC isn't close
ACC (8) Duke, Virginia, Louisville, UNC, Miami(Fl), NC St, Clemson, SMU(9-13/14-13) over VA Tech(8/12-13), Stanford(9/13-12, 4 Q3s), FSU(9/11-14) or Cal(6/12-11)
Big East(3) UConn, St John's, Villanova, MWC (2) Utah St, 2nd MWC, WCC (3) Gonzaga, St Mary"s, Santa Clara, A10 (2) St Louis, VCU
44 +
23 AQ 1 bid conferences
67 teams + Miami(Oh) 31-1
Quick run through of records and Quad numbers, Miami Ohio, Santa Clara, SMU, and 2nd MWC team last 4 in barring bid stealers. All of them 20+ wins, not many good arguments for the 18-19 wins or less teams with 12-15+ losses.
SEC (9) Florida, Vandy, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Texas A&M and Missouri(9-11/12-11) over Auburn(11-15), Texas(10-14)
BigXII (8) Arizona, Houston, Iowa St, Texas Tech, Kansas, BYU, TCU, and UCF(11-10/15-10) over Cincy(11-14), WVU(10-14) or Oklahoma St(12-14)
B1G (9) Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, Mich St, Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio St, and UCLA, Indiana or USC isn't close
ACC (8) Duke, Virginia, Louisville, UNC, Miami(Fl), NC St, Clemson, SMU(9-13/14-13) over VA Tech(8/12-13), Stanford(9/13-12, 4 Q3s), FSU(9/11-14) or Cal(6/12-11)
Big East(3) UConn, St John's, Villanova, MWC (2) Utah St, 2nd MWC, WCC (3) Gonzaga, St Mary"s, Santa Clara, A10 (2) St Louis, VCU
44 +
23 AQ 1 bid conferences
67 teams + Miami(Oh) 31-1
Quick run through of records and Quad numbers, Miami Ohio, Santa Clara, SMU, and 2nd MWC team last 4 in barring bid stealers. All of them 20+ wins, not many good arguments for the 18-19 wins or less teams with 12-15+ losses.
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Iowa State beating up on Texas Tech up 20. Raises the question over Tech's seeding without Toppin even though their profile is more than enough for a 4 seed.
Virginia holds off NC State. Pack still not a total lock..more like 75% but they are not immune to being sent to Dayton
St Johns takes care of Providence...game on Peacock, who cares...is the Big East tournament even a thing anymore
Virginia holds off NC State. Pack still not a total lock..more like 75% but they are not immune to being sent to Dayton
St Johns takes care of Providence...game on Peacock, who cares...is the Big East tournament even a thing anymore
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Feel like that win at Iowa St was massive for them...at least showed some signs of life without him. But I'm sure they'll be a team I'm fading in my brackets.
FIRST FOUR BYES: CENTRAL FLORIDA, TEXAS A&M, MIAMI (OHIO), SANTA CLARA
LAST 4 IN: SMU, AUBURN, VCU, NORTH CAROLINA STATE
FIRST 4 OUT: TEXAS, NEW MEXICO, OKLAHOMA, INDIANA
NEXT 4 OUT: OKLAHOMA STATE, SAN DIEGO STATE, VIRGINIA TECH, SETON HALL
ON DECK: STANFORD, CALIFORNIA, FLORIDA STATE, TULSA
LAST 4 IN: SMU, AUBURN, VCU, NORTH CAROLINA STATE
FIRST 4 OUT: TEXAS, NEW MEXICO, OKLAHOMA, INDIANA
NEXT 4 OUT: OKLAHOMA STATE, SAN DIEGO STATE, VIRGINIA TECH, SETON HALL
ON DECK: STANFORD, CALIFORNIA, FLORIDA STATE, TULSA
yeah it depends on much the selection committee wants to pay any attention to Arkansas or Vandy in the SEC tourney. Many feel today is the day that they stop looking at results
The fact that Auburn and Indiana are even on the bubble is "Exhibit A" for why the Tournament should not be expanded. Do we REALLY need mediocre P5 teams to be allowed in behind the velvet rope?
with Akron now that projected AQ from the MAC, it creates a battle actually that wont be on the 12 line... One of Akron, McNeese and South Florida will actually wind up on the 11 line.
their "threat" to break off is whats leading to that push. The push to 76 is coming whether we like it or not.
That’s the real issue. Will they throw Texas and Auburn a bone this year to keep it all together. Bid stealers good as SEC can’t moan as loudly.
both are not going to make it so we are going to have to make hard choices. There is likely a bid stealer coming so I am thinking both may not and that will lead to the call for 76 next year and they can say that 4 high or mid majors like santa clara, vcu, miami ohio and New Mexico getting in shows that expansion going forward is good to satisfy the smaller conferences and the power 5
will be interesting to watch the new pac 12 next year vs the Mountain West vs WCC
Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Gonzaga, San Diego State, Texas State, Utah State, Oregon State, and Washington State
UNLV, Air Force, Nevada, Hawaii, UTEP, New Mexico, Wyoming, San Jose State and Grand Canyon. UC Davis coming in 2028
Denver, Loyola Marymount, Pacific, Pepperdine, Portland, Saint Mary's, San Diego, San Francisco, Santa Clara, Seattle
Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Gonzaga, San Diego State, Texas State, Utah State, Oregon State, and Washington State
UNLV, Air Force, Nevada, Hawaii, UTEP, New Mexico, Wyoming, San Jose State and Grand Canyon. UC Davis coming in 2028
Denver, Loyola Marymount, Pacific, Pepperdine, Portland, Saint Mary's, San Diego, San Francisco, Santa Clara, Seattle
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Kentucky holds off Missouri. Cats looking good as a 7 while the Tigers are a 10 but still a risk of being sent to Dayton because of poor metrics
Dayton is fair. I don't think any of the Dayton teams will complain having to face a Kenpom #93 team
Seton Hall gets a 7th Q2 victory to up their stats to 8-9 Q1/2 and a pretty good 15-11 in Q1/2/3. We shall how the WAB moves. Beat St Johns and then we can revisit, They are still playing while other bubbles are not. So they have that going for them.
Miami beats Louisville. I still think they are a 7. Not enamoured by Louisvilles profile despite an inflated NET but likely a 6
Third time is a charm as Utah State finally beats UNLV. Aggies probably on the 8/9 line with a MWC title but there is an outside shot at 7
UCF getting blown out by Arizona. Running the risk of being in Dayton but still wouldnt be surprised if they went as high as 9
Hopefully ends Auburn trial ballon.
20-0 run!
16 losses.
1 game over .500
7-11 in conference.
Not what the tourney is supposed to be.
* Having said that, if they somehow get in, would not want to play them and they will have a huge chip on shoulder.
20-0 run!
16 losses.
1 game over .500
7-11 in conference.
Not what the tourney is supposed to be.
* Having said that, if they somehow get in, would not want to play them and they will have a huge chip on shoulder.
Auburn loses
now 17-16
4-13 in Q1, 7-15 in Q1/2, and 11-16 in Q1/2/3 5-12 vs field not including Texas who they beat
Will history be made?
I think it would be a joke if they get in with that record. Last year history was made with Texas selection i believe 3 games below 500 Q1/2/3. This seems like a bridge too far.
Texas profile is similar as bad but not quite as they are 17-14 and 6-9 Q1, 7-13 Q1/2., 10-14 Q1/2/3 6-9 vs field not including Auburn who they lost to.
SMU 20-13, 4-9 Q1, 9-13 Q1/2, but 14-13 Q1/2/3 3-9 vs field isnt that great either sos is just 56/185...the reason they dont have the same record as Auburn and Texas is they scheduled 2 or 3 easier schools.
Tough call
really have to see the metrics tomorrow
now 17-16
4-13 in Q1, 7-15 in Q1/2, and 11-16 in Q1/2/3 5-12 vs field not including Texas who they beat
Will history be made?
I think it would be a joke if they get in with that record. Last year history was made with Texas selection i believe 3 games below 500 Q1/2/3. This seems like a bridge too far.
Texas profile is similar as bad but not quite as they are 17-14 and 6-9 Q1, 7-13 Q1/2., 10-14 Q1/2/3 6-9 vs field not including Auburn who they lost to.
SMU 20-13, 4-9 Q1, 9-13 Q1/2, but 14-13 Q1/2/3 3-9 vs field isnt that great either sos is just 56/185...the reason they dont have the same record as Auburn and Texas is they scheduled 2 or 3 easier schools.
Tough call
really have to see the metrics tomorrow
There’s no way Auburn gets on over other bubble teams that have better metrics.
Possible but still not likely. They really have a poor resume currently. Would have been better off if they got to play and beat Connecticut in semis
Th
They have the best wins by far of any bubble team. In fact theyhave won of the best wins of the season at Florida
Their WAB says otherwise right now
They have the best wins by far of any bubble team. In fact theyhave won of the best wins of the season at Florida