NCAA Wrestling Bracket Reveal Schedule
- Thread starter Acacia
- Start date
I remember the days not too long ago where we were waiting on the edge of our seats wondering if Creighton Edsell was going to get an at-large. Ah, the good old days.
That's the really weird part. They don't even wrestle for stall calls anymore. 8 years ago the idea an Iowa wrestler would hug the edge line with their backside would have been preposterous to think. They move that direction on the whistle and stay there.
I posted on the Iowa board I didn't even need to watch the Ferrari v Welsh match to know Welsh had to be chasing Ferrari. Ferrari was in on a couple really deep shots and the only way that happens is Welsh has to step into Ferrari's retreat aggressively.
This was a fun exercise!
Arnold wins 4-6 sim matches depending on the final coaches' poll --> 27-29 seed.
And he is eligible for a ranking -- he had 2 duals at 197 + 6 matches at B10s (the 9th place MFF counts).
He beats: 23 Wisler, 28 Nelson, 29 Bennie, UNR Rule.
He's tied with Schaffer but both are UNR, so seed TBD. He currently loses to 32 Tompkins who was 8th at B12s. This could flip with the final rank.
Nelson and Bennie were the only At Larges among the bottom feeders.
BTW, those are some real bottom feeders.
3 NQs are sub-.500: Nelson (44.0%), Bennie (48.4%), Hawks (43.8%). Somehow Hawks beat Rademacher and Nelson beat Sasso this year.
SoCon champ Rule somehow beat zero NQs this year. He's also #22 in RPI. Go figure.
Nelson beat 1 NQ -- #12 Sasso.
Tompkins beat 1 NQ -- #11 Bates.
Arnold beat 3 NQs at 197 but none above #23 Wisler (by MFF). Others were #29 Bennie and UNR Rule.
3 NQs are sub-.500: Nelson (44.0%), Bennie (48.4%), Hawks (43.8%). Somehow Hawks beat Rademacher and Nelson beat Sasso this year.
SoCon champ Rule somehow beat zero NQs this year. He's also #22 in RPI. Go figure.
Nelson beat 1 NQ -- #12 Sasso.
Tompkins beat 1 NQ -- #11 Bates.
Arnold beat 3 NQs at 197 but none above #23 Wisler (by MFF). Others were #29 Bennie and UNR Rule.
Columbia's Sulayman Bah (125) gets in, bringing Columbia's total NQs to 7. No idea the last time that happened but not while I've been covering them, which is close to a decade.
why would you post this when Jefe said Arnold would be 27-29?
edit nvm, I see lemonpie asked the question
The Cael Tax must be paid by all. No exceptions.Cael was worried about his record for a second
It almost seems a certainty for some reason, doesn’t it. Is his shoulder an issue now as well?
Not his shoulder, his chest. He has lycra/nylon burns from the egregious and malicious upper body singlet wedgies Rocco inflicted this weekend. Doubtful he'll recover in time to be competitive at NCAAs.
That or elbow. But nothing compared to the tragedy that befell his brother at the end of the 285 final. Did you see how hurt he was? I cried.
Lol, keep em coming. I turned off the TV after Barr’s match, one of the best decisions I’ve ever made. I’ll really miss these PSU dynasty days where they’re gone but no more Focus’ in college wrestling is a decent consolation
Did anyone else notice that the Big 12 crushed it with the at large bids. I counted 18 compared to 8 for the BIG
If you had been covering them since 1928 this would still be a true statement. They have never qualified seven before. Pritzlaff is killing it.
In 2023 they qualified 6.
In 2025, 2013 and 2005 they qualified 5.
That makes the Big Ten with 95 entrants and Big 12 with 81. Interesting
Wisconsin and Rutgers AD offices have to be kicking themselves.
careful. had davis lost the 7th place match, we would've had a lot in here worried about him
I think the interesting thing is that the algorithim must really like the Big 12 this year. They might challenge the ACC for the lowest % of AA per qualifier this year.
With the Big Ten having 24 more allocated spots, there were a lot more Big 12 wrestlers available and needing an at-large.
Ferrari could theoretically be seeded anywhere from 4 to 14, or maybe even lower (because I stopped looking after #16). His coaches' rank is such a complete variable with his 6-wk break, and his B10 8th place, and him only beating Rowley and Goin after returning.
Realistically, he's not getting ranked 4th or 16th. But where in between is anybody's guess.
Among the #4 - #16 guys, the only ones he absolutely beats in the sim are 10 Ryder and 14 Goin, thanks to H2H.
7 Fishback is a weird one. Ferrari is officially 1-0 because the B10 7th/8th MFF doesn't count as a loss for him as he had forfeited the match before. But it counts for Fishback, so he's officially 1-1 vs Ferrari. So how does H2H get split for that? I have it as 12.5 each, but if it goes to the next split (16.7-8.3), then Ferrari wins. (Ferrari also beats Fishback if he gets a higher coaches' rank. Either situation wins for him.)
Ferrari loses to everybody else from 4-16 he is ranked below.
And that's before any post-sim adjustment made by the NCAA committee.
95 entrants is 28.8% ( will use 30%)of all participants, and 81 is 24.5% (will use 25%).
30% of the AAs is 24 and 25% is 20.
One certainty is the Big10 will be closer to 50% of the AAs than 30%, and another certainty is the Big12 will be the only other conference with a total of AAs equal or greater than their percentage of qualifiers.
No, he will talk next around lunchtime next Monday, before the team leaves for Cleveland.
I don't know who's on the commitee even, but Bah's numbers are as good or better than the other at-large selections.It might be Ivy League bias considering the Chair of the selection committee.
Separate Davino/Blaze and Seidel/Forrest is only right.
Yes. I'm pretty sure just about every rational wrestling fan agrees with this. Now the committee just needs to make it happen.
Almost forgot to do this lol ...
1 - Duke
2 - Taylor
3 - Shapiro
Taylor has beaten more NQs than Shapiro and has the best win (Duke). Presumably he will remain ranked ahead of Shapiro since both finished 2nd at their conference tourneys, with Duke being a much better loss than Swisher.
4 - Larkin
5 - Rope-a-dope
Larkin won H2H at B12 finals and takes every category except RPI.
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The next few guys could go in a lot of ways -- too many wild cards with possible rank and RPI changes, plus fitting Cannon in here. (Cannon loses to both Larkin and Robideau.)
Last coaches rank: 6 Zerban, 7 Watters, 8 Webster, 9 Cardenas, 10 Swisher, Cannon UNR. For discussion purposes I'm putting Cannon at 10, Zerban at 11, and moving everybody up 1 spot. Cardenas and Swisher might move up more for winning their conferences (and Swisher beating Shapiro).
Also, Cannon did not have an RPI but does now. Wrestlestat projects Cannon's RPI at #4. I will err on the side away from him due to Wrestlestat RPI errors, but recognizing his RPI could change things.
I'm taking Zerban out of this group because his rank is gonna drop TBD after injury defaulting/DNP at B12s, he'll get docked additionally for that, and he might be vulnerable against some of the next guys below him.
Within this group, Swisher, Watters, and Cardenas are all 3-1 and beat each other. Of course! Watters' sim is the riskest with possible Rank/RPI flips, so I'll call it
6 - Cardenas
7 - Swisher
8 - Watters
9-10 - Webster and Cannon in that order, due to H2H.
All of this after Robideau is gonna be wrong, just a matter of how wrong.