I would think he's got a very legitimate shot at beating Cotton. I don't buy that all the guys will be too big for him. Just the very top guys and there aren't many of them at 197. Maybe 3 guys at 197 in total (all conferences) that he doesn't have a shot at and another 6-8 that will be tough matches for him, but will be low scoring and that will give him a shot. Big has 10 allocations at 197 and there is no shot in hell he doesn't qualify for NCAAs.
And I don't think he gets the 14 seed. The algorithm is a guide, but not the final answer. If he's on the other side of Barr, he could find his way to the Big final, not that I would predict it. If he does get the 14th, then, yes, your scenario is in play but I think he probably gets it done in 1 out of the 2 tough matchups and ends up top 3-6.